As the credit crisis has unfolded, the Dollar has remained (relatively) strong, especially considering the deteriorating state of its economy. The reason for this, of course, is that in times of crisis, investors flock to perceived safe havens, such as the US and EU. However, an especially pessimistic series of economic developments has called into question the wiseness of this strategy. A handful of American banks and mortgage institutions have already collapsed, and bankruptcies in all sectors of the economy will surely become more common. The picture in Europe is equally bleak. Several economic indicators have fallen to multi-year lows, and the ECB's decision to hike rates looks increasingly misguided. Given these circumstances, where can investors turn? Perhaps, to Japan and Switzerland, reports The Market Oracle:
The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen...were the great beneficiaries during the Crash of '87, the Debt Crisis of 1998 and again during the current credit crisis, enjoying sweeping and massive upward moves.
This is well known, proven, historic fact.
What most people do not seem to realize, however, is the fact that this is not strictly a trans-Atlantic capital flight (out of the U.S. dollar)! Investors that are rushing out of the British pound and the commodity currencies ALSO seek safer havens like the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.
You may not see this if you look at the currency market myopically. You may even see the crisis currencies decline temporarily in sympathy with the euro. But the big picture is clear: In times of crisis, these currencies shine.
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