FOREX INFO

Euro Back Under Pressure

2011-06-12T05:05:00.000-07:00

The Euro has come back under some intense pressure over the past few sessions with the market reacting in “sell the fact” fashion following the latest ECB rate decision and Mr. Trichet’s signaling of imminent rate hikes after using the “strong vigilance” language. Also seen weighing on the single currency have been a number of developments which include; news of a worse than forecast Greek GDP, concerns from Moody’s over a Greek default, and indications from the ECB that they are not planning to roll over their holdings of Greek debt.

While some of the other currencies have held up relatively well, we believe that most currencies will be more exposed against the US Dollar going forward as the risk off/global slowdown themes continue to materialize. The latest rate hike from the Bank of Korea lends more reason for concern, while market participants continue to anticipate another round of tightening from China. One of the currencies that we feel could be most vulnerable is the New Zealand Dollar which trades by multi-year highs on some more encouraging local fundamentals, but would seemingly be at risk of coming off significantly should global risk appetite continue to wane. RBNZ Bollard has even clearly stated that the local currency is overvalued and we would expect to see any additional gains from here as limited.

Looking ahead to the European session, Eurozone and UK inflation data and UK industrial production are the main releases and could very well inspire some additional volatility in the markets. Canada employment data, US import prices and the US monthly budget statement are the standouts in North American trade. US equity futures and commodities prices are back to showing offered following mild recoveries on Thursday.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD: Rallies have stalled out just ahead of the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 1.4940-1.3970 move, and the market could finally be in the process of carving out a fresh lower top by 1.4700 ahead of the next major downside extension back towards the 1.3970 recent trend lows. From here, look for a daily close below 1.4400 to confirm bias and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.4700 delays and gives reason for concern. Look for intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4650.

USD/JPY: After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00 area and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported around 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks and a break and close back above 81.00 will help to confirm.

GBP/USD: Rallies have been very well capped in the 1.6500’s with the market looking like it wants to carve out a fresh lower top by 1.6550 ahead of the next downside extension below 1.6060. A daily close back below 1.6285 will reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.6550 negates and gives reason for pause.

USD/CHF: The latest minor recovery has proved to be just that, with the market finding a fresh lower top ahead of 0.9000 in favor of a drop to yet another record low below 0.8400. Daily studies are however still looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Look for a break and close back above 0.8450 to encourage bullish reversal prospects, while only a drop below 0.8300 delays.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

Islamic Forex Accounts – Islamic Forex Trading with TDFX

2010-11-23T23:29:00.000-08:00

Islamic forex accounts are a specific category of forex trading accounts also known as interest free or swap free forex accounts.

Islamic forex trading accounts permit clients of Islamic religion to trade on interest free accounts (SWAP free or Roll Over fee) with no extra charge or penalty for the ability to trade in adherence with Islamic religious principles. Clients can open and close positions at any time within the Tadawul FX Metatrader 4 system without being constrained to holding them for a defined period.

Some common Islamic forex trading account conditions include:

No Riba Policy:
Clients benefiting from the Tadawul FX No Riba policy may hold positions for an undetermined time at the original opening price until they are closed and no charges will occur. Tadawul FX may revoke the ‘No Riba’ policy in case of abuse with a 48 hour notice by email.

Musharaka or commonly called joint venture:
This refers to a partnership or joint venture for a specific business with a profit motive, whereby the distribution of profits will be apportioned according to an agreed ratio. In the event of losses, both parties will share the losses on the basis of the agreed ratio.

Hibah (Gift or Donation): The term ‘hibah’ refers to gifts awarded voluntarily in return for a loan given. Tadawul FX will select different organizations in order to enable investors to donate a percentage of their profits to them.

At Tadawul FX, we offer clients the possibility to choose Islamic Forex Trading conditions for any of our Forex account types including Mini, Standard or Premium accounts, regardless of base currency or leverage offered. Islamic trading accounts may also be used for Managed forex accounts, as the only determining factor is the religion of the client that the trading account belongs to. TDFX enables its clients to trade with no swap charges and with no other additional charges, spread or hidden fees, ‘simply fair and ethical trading conditions for all’.

The Islamic Accounts offered by Tadawul FX are not the same as the Islamic Accounts generally offered by other Forex companies. They differ based on the fact that TDFX offers SWAP free accounts with no other additional charges, whereas most other companies transfer this fee by widening the spread on Islamic Accounts. In order to abide by Islamic religious beliefs, one must not pay interest but if that interest charge is transferred to a different type of fee, it is basically still a charge to cover the interest. This is also referred to as a SWAP fee in disguise. Tadawul FX does not do this, again demonstrating that TDFX offers fair and ethical trading conditions.

To open an Islamic Forex account with TDFX, simply complete our online forex trading account opening form and select the 'swap-free' option.

Islamic Forex Account

2010-11-23T23:28:00.000-08:00

MFFX offers the possibility of Islamic or swap-free accounts with no rollover charges. Swaps or roll over charges will not apply to such accounts. For this service MFFX offers one pip spread higher on all currencies per trade.

MFFX offers all clients the opportunity to maintain islamic trading accounts (swap free forex trading accounts) whereby no roll over interest will be charged or incurred to positions held overnight which is in compliance of the Islamic Shariah Law. A small fee of $8 dollar per standard lot is charge daily for positions held overnight. Traders can hold the positions for unlimited time.

In order to maintain an Islamic (swap free) Forex trading account a Request For Islamic (Swap Free) Forex Trading Account has to be filled & signed by the client and sent to us by Fax or e-mail to admin@mffx.com. MFFX offers Islamic (swap free) Forex trading account to all clients no matter what their religion. Clients can open the account in any of the available currencies base.

s MFFX Trading system adhering to Islamic Shariah Law?

Simplicity Is The Main Thing To Attain Currency Trading Success

2009-07-29T17:38:00.001-07:00

The basis for why several of the traders lose and do not attain currency trading success is regularly attributed to a lack of discipline, though this is not the main cause, it’s just a small part of the trouble.

The main cause is a short of “strong concentration”, this indeed should be looked in to as the majority of traders are ignorant of it.

If you desire to attain currency trading success you require “strong concentration” and this denotes concentrating on how and why forex markets actually function and what you have to do to eventually succeed. The majority of traders just will not follow this and they will lose.

Do your work smartly; don’t make things harder for yourself:

In several industries to attain success the more you place in the more you get out in terms of returns; this is not right in currency trading.

What you require to study is that to attain real good success in currency trading you will have to be working real smart, you must not be playing tough rather you must be applying an easy system that should have you spend less time and better profit.

You can make a better currency trading process in just an hour a day and create triple digit annual gains! Simplicity is the main thing to attain currency trading success.

Trade with likelihood:

These days, there is a massive industry that informs us of analytical theories and functions and you can choose market bottoms and tops with technical correctness.

The other huge fairy tale is day trading.

You can attempt to trade pretty harder as you desire, but the odds are not in your goodwill in day trading, as you will not have sufficient profits to wrap your predictable losses.

You require to trade better in the longer run and this is where the likelihood of success is more and this is one of the single method with which you will land up with success in currency trading.

Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike Rates

2009-07-29T17:36:00.000-07:00

Based on the chart below, which plots the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar over the last two years, one might be tempted to conclude that the two currencies are identical for all intents and purposes. Rather than suffer the inconvenience of separately analyzing the Australian Dollar.

But this chart belies the fact that while the two currencies, have risen and fallen (in near lockstep) in sync with the ebb and flow of risk aversion, this could soon change. While the near-term prospects for the New Zealand economy are dubious, sentiment towards the Australian economy is more consistently optimistic. “Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economic downturn may not be ‘one of the more serious’ of the post-World War II era.” In addition, “Stevens said the nation’s economy may rebound faster than the central bank had predicted six months ago on improving confidence among consumers and businesses alike.” The latest projections are for a fall in .5% contraction in GDP in 2009 followed by a 1% rise in 2010.

Meanwhile, government spending is surging: “The Australian government forecast its largest budget deficit on record of A$57.6 billion for fiscal year 2009-10, or 4.9% of GDP.” Combined with the steady recovery in commodity prices and the resumption of residential construction, this could soon trickle down through the Australian economy in the form of inflation. It’s no wonder, then, that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could begin tightening interest rates as early as December, in order to mitigate against the possibility of inflation in 2011 and 2012.

In fact, Governor Glen Stevens has been raising eyebrows with his unequivocal comments about raising rates. “I’ve never seen written down … I’ve never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment’s peaked before we lift the cash rate…I think it depends what else is happening, and also depends how low you went. We eased very aggressively,” he said recently. As a result, traders are betting that rates will be 1.13% higher one year from now than they are today.

This development should be of especial interest to forex traders. Australian interest rates are already the highest in the industrialized world. When you consider “the market’s expectations that the RBA is likely to be the G-10 central bank which is likely to hike first,” it goes a long way towards explaining the 18% rise in the Aussie that has taken place in 2009 alone. Compare a hypothetical 4% RBA benchmark rate to the .1% in Japan and ~0% in the US, and carry traders will start to salivate.

New Zealand Dollar Rise Threatens Economic Recovery

2009-07-29T17:34:00.000-07:00

Having risen nearly 30% against the US Dollar since March, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD or Kiwi) is now close to a 9 1/2 month high. While still far from the record highs of 2008, the currency is already erased a large portion of the losses it racked up since the credit crisis gave way to economic recession.

As part of last Friday’s coverage of the Japanese Yen, we included a chart which compared the performance of the AUD/JPY cross to the S&P 500. Even without calculating the correlation coefficient, a cursory review of the chart revealed an uncanny relationship! Unsurprisingly, it turns out the same relationship also applies to the New Zealand Dollar, whose recent performance closely mirrors US equities.

In other words, the interplay between risk appetite and risk aversion continues to dominate the forex markets, as traders move to calibrate the split of funds between so-called safe haven currencies and the riskier alternatives, among which the New Zealand Dollar is certainly counted. Much of the rally in the Kiwi, then, represents a correction, as investors acknowledge that the near 50% slide from-peak-to-trough was an overreaction.

Going forward, however, the Kiwi will have to rest on its own feet, as new themes move to the fore of investors’ minds. Specifically, they will begin to look more closely at the New Zealand economy, and demand evidence of a recovery. “Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard told a business audience the world has ‘avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. Now, we and the world, appear to be on our way to recovery. New Zealand looks likely to start recovering ahead of the pack.’ ”

At the same time, the most recent economic data showed an economy in freefall, as “New Zealand’s economy shrank for a fifth straight quarter…The economy contracted 2.7 per cent in the January-March quarter.” While forecasts vary, GDP is expected to fall by at least 2.1% in 2009, with a modest pickup expected in 2010. Investors are betting that the recovery will be driven by rising demand for commodities, which will help to buoy New Zealand exports. Once again, this conflicts with the data, which shows an annualized trade deficit of $3 Billion. Despite a fall in imports, the country is still importing more than its exporting. This could be a product of the stronger currency, which all stakeholders agree is not conducive to economic growth. In the end, the economy’s best chance for recovery lies in a resumption of debt-induced consumption and residential construction, the very forces which caused the current downturn. Says Mr. Bollard, “Reliance on past experience of strong house price inflation and easy credit will be untenable.”

Given the uncertain prospects for growth, combined with moderating price inflation, the RBNZ can be expected to hold interest rates at current levels for the near-term. “Bollard will leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent on July 30, according to all 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.” Based on swap rates, the markets feel similarly, and are pricing a mere 25 basis point hike over the next twelve months. With such a dubious prognosis, one has to wonder whether the Kiwi’s rally is really sustainable.

How to Find a Good Forex Broker

2009-05-28T11:08:00.001-07:00

To trade forex, you need the services of a broker. Here are some tips to help you find a select a good broker.

1. Ask friends and colleagues for references. You may not have the luxury of having a trusted person to ask their advice on a broker. If you do, take advantage of that resource. A personal recommendation can cut way down on your research time and help you avoid making a bad decision.

If the same broker is recommended more than once, obviously you will want to take that into consideration. You might decide to look no further.

2. Do online research. The internet is an excellent research tool, and you should use it to locate several contenders to serve as your broker. Compile a list of brokers that look promising, and make a comparison chart to easily compare "apples to apples".

3. Using your comparison chart, select the three or four brokers that seem to most closely match your needs.

Some brokers will naturally appeal to the needs of certain traders more than others. One potentially important factor is the number and usefulness of the "helps" that each offers. Does the company maintain a forum, and is it actively used? Does the trading interface seem easy to use? What sort of research tools do they offer, if any?

4. Once you have narrowed down your list, do further investigation on your final contenders. Consider calling them on the phone. Ask yourself if they offer enough services to help you with your forex business. Request a free trial so you can get to know their company; at the very least, ask if they have a demo account for you to try.

If you're not a native English speaker, consider whether or not the broker offers services in your main language. This can become a very important factor in making your decision. As you learn and improve your forex trading skills, you don't want to struggle with a language barrier too.

5. After you have selected your broker, it is not out the question to keep tabs on other brokers. You are not "married" to any given broker that you pick. If you want, you can invest a certain amount of time every couple of months to see if any brokers have expanded their line of services or appeal to your needs better.

After all, you will be spending a considerable of money with the broker, paying for their services through the spread prices, so you will likely want some assurance over time that you are getting the best return on your investment.

Similarly, consider periodically evaluating your experience with your broker. Ask yourself if there any "holes" in the services they have provided to you. Are there any additional services which would help you make better trades? If the answer is yes, that is a clue for specific features you may want to seek out in a different broker at some time in the future.

Selecting a forex broker is one of the most important decisions you make in your forex business, so take the time to do it right.

Start Forex Trading:A Few FX Tips

Forex trading can be rewarding in more ways than one. It can provide a nice part-time income or even give you the freedom to quit your job and work from home. Here are some steps you should take before you begin trading.

First, invest some time in learning about forex markets and trading. There are many training guides available, and you should pick up two or three and learn everything you can. Get comfortable with the terminology and calculations.

Second, save up seed capital to begin trading with. If you already have the money on hand, that's great. Resist the urge to borrow from your mortgage money or grocery budget in order to start forex trading. Only invest what you are willing to lose, especially in the beginning when you are learning the ropes.

Third, make sure you have a firm financial foundation. You want to make sure you are making investing decisions based upon sound principles and not because your car payment is due in two days. Rash decisions made out of desperation often end in disaster, so take it slowly and learn how to trade forex before you rely on the money you will earn.

You may need to continue working in your job for a while, until you are comfortable in the forex market and are earning a comfortable income. Or, you may need to go out and get a job, at least part-time. Don't worry, it doesn't have to be forever.

Fourth, decide what your working hours will be. The forex markets are open 24 hours per day, Monday through Friday; you can even work at night if you choose! If you have a job or other time commitments, take those into account as well.

Fifth, select a broker. Many forex brokers are available. Do your due diligence and research each broker that you are seriously considering. Make note of the benefits listed in their advertisements. and construct a comparison chart of the most important features. You can always change brokers later; just make sure your broker's policies and ways of doing business are compatible with yours.

Sixth, once you begin trading, keep a record of your progress. As you do research before making investment decisions, keep track of what you find and why you made specific decisions. Consider opening a Google account; you can use a separate Gmail address for all your forex-related email correspondence, clip web pages with Google Notebook, make notes in Google Docs, and do financial calculations in Google Spreadsheet.

Forex trading is quickly becoming one of the favorite ways that people are supplementing and even replacing their income. The training and tools you need are widely available. Will you be the next successful forex trader?

Brazilian Real Continues Rise on Current Account Surplus

2009-05-28T11:07:00.001-07:00

The Brazilian currency had the sharpest rise in seven days after the country’s first current account surplus in 19 months was posted this week, pushing the national equities market up.

After 19 months in deficit, the Brazilian current account, which is the broadest measure of a country’s trading activity, had a surplus of $146 million, pushed mainly by a recovery in commodity prices together with a decrease in multinational companies profit remittances. The Brazilian real suffered drastically when the global slump hit Latin American in the second semester of the last year, losing ground against virtually all main currencies, but since economic conditions improved in the past months, mainly in Asia, the demand for commodities increased, causing the Brazilian stock market to rally and spurring demand for the national currency.

Brazil is a main exporter of grains and several metallic commodities, and the rising demand improved confidence in Brazilian markets, according to experts. Being the real a high-yielding currency, it has been favored by a new wave of risk appetite on world markets, which has also favored several Asian currencies and the euro. The recovery in the Brazilian equities market is also attracting foreign investors back to this Latin American nation, adding attractiveness to the country’s currency profile.

USD/BRL traded at 2.0054 from 2.0185. Brazil’s real also posted gains against European currencies being the EUR/BRL traded at 2.8020 from 2.8231 and the GBP/BRL at 3.2086 from 3.2147.

MACD Sample Expert Advisor

2009-05-28T11:06:00.001-07:00

MACD Sample expert advisor is a famous sample expert advisor made by MetaQuotes software to implement a very simple MACD-based strategy of Forex trading. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is one of the basic financial trading indicators, which is present in every MetaTrader platform. This version of MACD Sample was optimized specifically for GBP/USD H4 chart. This expert advisor uses crosses of 4 MACD indicators and 2 moving average indicators to determine the next position's direction. MACD Sample uses a trailing stop-loss for its orders. That's why it has a very high percentage of profitable orders. But this expert advisor should be always active to stop out the losing positions in time.

My test of MACD Sample MetaTrader expert advisor showed some interest results. I used GBP/USD H4 chart (I optimized it for this combination) with 0.3 standard lots orders. The results were about $4,450 profit and about $1,030 maximum drawdown in one year period. Checking it on a three years period didn't reveal any problems for this EA.

MiniFAQ

What are the stop-loss and take-profit used by this EA?

It uses 30 pip take-profit and 60 trailing stop-loss. The average losing position is 196 pips.

How often does it trade?

On 4-hour GBP/USD chart (the optimum settings) this EA will trade about 3 times a month on average.

Download MACD Sample expert advisor

Download zipped MACD Sample expert advisor

Warning! Before you ask any basic questions regarding installation of the expert advisors, please, read this MT4 Expert Advisors Tutorial to get the elementary knowledge on handling them.

Do you have your own trading results or any other remarks regarding this expert advisor? Don't hesitate to contact me.

Discuss MACD Sample with other traders and MQL programmers on the experts forums.

Yen Declines Further as Investors Purchase Assets Overseas

2009-05-28T11:05:00.000-07:00

The yen hit a 8-week low against the dollar and also lost ground against the euro, as Japanese investors, driven by a new wave of confidence on world markets, return to overseas investments.

The Ministry of Finance in Japan affirmed that national investors had the highest rise in foreign bonds purchases during the current month, this declaration reflected immediately in the Japanese currency market, making the yen to lose against all of the 16 most-traded currencies. The yen also lost ground against high-yielding currencies in Asia, such as the Malaysian ringgit and the South Korean won. Standard&Poor’s raised the outlook for the New Zealand’s debt rating, pushing it sharply up in the Pacific trading area.

Japanese investors are more comfortable to take riskier positions, since the global financial situation has been reporting sequential signs of recovery, the attractiveness of higher-yielding currencies is once again alluring for Asian traders. Analysts confirm that the Standard&Poor’s report on New Zealand may bring interesting profits for traders willing to enter long in the NZD/JPY currency pair. For the time being the safety profile of the yen as an investment is strongly not recommended among trading experts.

USD/JPY rose enormously from 95.15 to 96.79 and following the same trend GBP/JPY traded at 152.05 to 154.31 and NZD/JPY also rallied from 59.05 to 60.05.

If you want to comment on the Japanese yen’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Russia Leads World in Declining Forex Reserves

2009-05-28T11:04:00.001-07:00

During the global economic boom and concomitant run-up in energy prices, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves exploded. The subsequent bursting of the bubble, however, proved the maxim, what goes up must come down. “After reaching a record high of $597.5 billion in early August, reserves have declined dramatically as the central bank spent more than $200 billion on propping up a depreciating ruble.”

Excluding the European Union, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are still the world’s third largest, behind only China and Japan. By Russia’s own admission, this will not remain the case for long. If current economic conditions continue to prevail, its entire stock of reserves will be depleted within two to three years. Moreover, as its reserves have declined, the share of Euros have risen (perhaps due to the selling of Dollars) to 47.5%, surpassing the Dollar for the first time. Despite the insistence of Russian authorities that the change was inadvertent, the fact remains that the Euro currently predominates in Russia’s forex portfolio.

These two trends - declining reserves and shifting allocation - are becoming entrenched, and may in fact accelerate. A cursory skim of the most recent IMF Data on International Reserves reveals that the reported reserves of most countries have fallen over the last year, or at the very least, are not growing at the same pace. The WSJ reports that “Foreign-exchange reserves of about 30 low-income countries have already fallen below the critical value equivalent to three months of imports.”

Meanwhile, it has been highlighted elsewhere that China - which does not report its reserves and is hence not included on this list - has seen its reserves stagnate, and has hinted publicly that it is nervous about the preponderance of Dollars it holds. And suffice it to say that when China talks, people listen.

The clear implication is that the US Dollar may not hold sway as the world’s unchallenged reserve currency for much longer. It is certainly not as if this is a new possibility. After all, “The United States possesses around one-fifth of the world’s GDP, but its own paper provides around 75% of world’s exchangeable currency reserves. This is a worrying imbalance,” argues one economist.

The impetus can be found in changed economic circumstances, which previously reinforced the Dollar’s role as reserve currency, but now suggest the opposite. Declining world trade and lower current account imbalances result directly in lower reserves, as do government stimulus plans funded with foreign exchange. The pickup in risk appetite meanwhile, combined with inflationary US monetary and fiscal policy, will make Central Banks increasingly reluctant to hold Dollar-denominated assets. Finally, the locus of the global economy is slowly shifting to East Asia. This trend will probably gather momentum if and when the global economy recovers, as the rest of the world has now learned the hard way that their collective reliance on US consumers is not sustainable.

Why Forex Trading is an Ideal Home Business?

2009-05-28T11:03:00.001-07:00

Forex trading should be considered by anyone looking to start their own home based business. In this article, we will define Forex trading; explain its advantages over other business opportunities and discuss some pitfalls to avoid.

What is Forex trading?

"Forex" is short for "foreign exchange", and refers to the trading of monetary currencies.

Many people don't realize that currencies are traded, similar to stock trading. Since the value of each nation's currency is constantly fluctuating in relationship to other currencies, there are opportunities for you to profit.

Advantages of Forex trading as a home-based business.

There are several advantages of Forex trading including:

- You can adapt your participation to your own schedule

The Forex market is open for trading 24 hours per day, Monday through Friday, unlike the stock market or any other business in which you must work around "business hours". With Forex trading, you can work in the middle of the night if you want.

- Large marketplace

Forex trading is the largest marketplace in the world. It shadows all other markets, even the stock market. That means there is opportunity for anyone to participate. The daily trading volume is nearly 4 trillion dollars!

- Low barrier to entry

It takes less than $100 to get started Forex trading. If you can scrape together that amount of cash, even if it takes a garage sale or selling some of your extra stuff on eBay or Craigslist, you can jump into Forex trading.

Some pitfalls to watch out for.

Be aware of these potential problems if you decide to enter the Forex market:

- Investing decisions based on emotion rather than logic

As with any type of investing, it's very easy to get caught up in the prospect of making big money. Place some limits on yourself so that you don't use money you need for living expenses.

- Investing without a solid knowledge of the playing field

No serious athlete would step out onto the baseball diamond or basketball court without thoroughly understanding the "rules of the game", and neither should you venture into any type of investing without the same level of understanding.

- Trading too frequently

Although there are no "commissions" when trading Forex, you will be responsible to pay the "spread", which is the variance between the ask price and the bid price. If you do very many trades, these "spreads" can really add up. Just make sure you understand the cost of your trades before you make them.

Conclusion

Forex can be an ideal avenue for you to make extra money, or even as a foundation for a home-based business. It is wide open for anyone: you don't need to have any specific credentials or background. Why not take a share of this market today?

by Garry Williams

Price Alert

2009-05-28T11:02:00.000-07:00

Price Alert MetaTrader indicator — plays sound alerts when the price reaches certain levels that are set by the trader. There are three types of alerts: first one is used when the price rises above certain level (displayed with the green line on the chart), second one is used when the price falls below certain level (displayed with the red line on the chart), third one is used when the price reaches the certain level exactly (displayed with the yellow line). All alerts turn off when they are triggered and can be turned on again with the new values.

Input parameters:

SoundWhenPriceGoesAbove (default = 0.0) — if price goes above this value the alert will be triggered.
SoundWhenPriceGoesBelow (default = 0.0) — if price goes below this value the alert will be triggered.
SoundWhenPriceIsExactly (default = 0.0) — if price is exactly at this value the alert is triggered.

This indicator can't be used as a trading system and it isn't generating any signals. You can use it whenever you wish to be notified of some new price levels. Then you can use the moment to do whatever you want with the market. You can set the input parameters to zero value if you don't want to use some of them.

Downloads:

Price Alert in .zip

Price Alert in .mq4

Discussion:

Warning! Before you ask any basic questions regarding installation of the indicators, please, read this MT4 Indicators Tutorial to get the elementary knowledge on handling them.

Do you have any suggestions or questions regarding this indicator? You can always contact me or discuss Price Alert with the other traders and MQL programmers on the indicators forums.

Tips to Make Money Fast in Forex

2009-05-28T11:01:00.001-07:00

This is all about making a fortune with Forex. Most traders just go with the flow and make average gains, with this article you will learn what makes some traders stand out and a lot richer than others!

We are going to assume that you know how to trade, and has quite an experience in trading.

With simple changes in your trade selection, money and risk management, and mindset, you can change that average gains into larger ones!

Fast money is in Forex, it is a lifestyle. here is it how its done.

Tip 1 . Embrace Changeability and Risk With a Smile

Forex systems have instability.

If you cannot manage and calculate your risk, then don't ever think about trading in Forex. Many traders back away from forex because of this ( why do you even traded in the first place?). But taking manageable risks has its rewards.

It's just simple, you know what your losing if ever it doesn't work out, yet what you gain is unpredictable but sure is high! That is what I call excitement, my friend.

To a well-educated Forex trader, this is something you shouldn't be afraid of, might as well embrace it.

Tip 2. Trade Less, gain more

Most traders think that if they don't trade, another door has closed, or miss some move. The tendency, they trade frequently. Most of the trades that come big come a few times in a year. Focus on the trades that make the really big gains. Be alert, and informed.

Tip 3. Diversify is a no-no

Most Investors accept the fact that diversification can make money fast - in reality it does exactly the opposite.

Tip 4. Money and Risk Management

This article has been concentrating on the Big gains, because this is your money, so every penny should be controlled, this is where money management kicks in.

Control your risks, but increase your chances of success:

- Give yourself staying power by buying options at or in the money, this prevents you from getting stopped out. Many traders lose not by the market direction, but because they were stopped out by a instable move, and options will give you staying power.

- Keep your stop in its original position - until the move is well in profit, before moving it up.

- Trading fast and selectively - have the courage to trade when you feel it is good. and enjoy the cash.

Tip 5. Compound growth has its benefits

The way to make money fast in forex, is to understand the power of compound growth. For example, if you target 50% a year in your trading, you can grow an initial $20,000 account, to over a million dollars, in under 10 years.

Break the norm, and gain more. Follow some of these tips and make your way into the big gains!

by Ryan Joseph Ferrer

Euro Surges on Better Economic Indicators

2009-05-28T10:59:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD posted a sharp gain today after declining for three days in a row as the markets gained on the better fundamental conditions. The U. S. statistics was mixed today, but still positive enough for EUR/USD to rise. It’s now trading near 1.3937.

Durable goods orders rose by 1.9% in April after decreasing by 2.1% in March (revised down from 0.8% drop). The median forecast was at 0.5% gain.

Initial jobless claims decreased from 636k to 623k last week. A drop to 628k was expected.

New home sales rose from 351k to 352k seasonally adjusted annual rate in April. But the March value came out revised down from 356k. Traders expected a growth to 360k.

Crude oil inventories decreased by 5.4 million barrels last week, following 2.1 million barrels decline during a previous week. The overall inventories are now at 363.1 million barrels.

Yesterday the existing home sales report showed a gain from 4.55 million to 4.68 million in April compared to March. The March value was negatively revised from 4.57 million. The April growth according to the average forecast should have been to 4.66 million.

STARTING FOREX TRADING

2009-05-04T07:36:00.001-07:00

The best and most efficient way for the traders to make money is through the internet in the Forex Trading by using the online forex trading system. The forex market is the most liquid trading market and an unpredictable market in the world. But still this forex market is the best for expert traders to amass huge profits. But it doesn’t mean that a trader should be an expert to make profits in the forex markets, it is enough if he knows the basics of forex trading and a little common sense along with the knowledge of the present economy of the countries world wide. Getting started with forex has become easy, due to the advances in technology.
1. The first and foremost aspect is that a person who wants to do forex trading should choose a good Forex Broker, the forex broker should help the forex trader to have a practice account, great customer support, good charting packages and news feeds. To analyze the forex brokers, there is a report called CFD FX REPORT which reviews forex brokers and give its rankings.
2. The second aspect is that, the forex trader must fund and deposit money in his newly acquired account. Due to modernity, these days many Forex Broker Platforms make it very easy for transactions, the trader can deposit via Credit Card, direct debit, check. It is always recommended by most advisors to start with only little amount of money and after a little experiences the forex trader can increase his leverage rates later.
3. The third step is the forex broker should help to move in the right direction that suits the trader’s trading style. There are several quality Free forex charts available to indicate the trend and also there are many sites that update the Fx Rates everyday. It is important to use them regularly.

Euro Resumes Decline After Brief Pause

2009-05-04T07:35:00.001-07:00

The one-year chart of the EUR/USD depicts a general downward trend, punctuated with steep “blips.” Every couple of months or so, it seems traders are temporarily jarred loose from their mindset of Euro bearishness, and find an excuse to bid up the common currency. Invariably, the Euro then resumes its downward course a few weeks later.

The Euro’s recent trading activity fits this mold perfectly. The global stock market rally in March was accompanied by a spike in the Euro. While equities, commodities, and even other currencies continued to rise, however, the Euro peaked after a couple weeks and has since hovered around the $1.30 mark. As one currency strategist summarized: “A breakdown of the correlation between the euro-dollar exchange rate and the S&P index indicates the currency pair ‘ has become a trade that is less about risk, a little more about euro rate specifics.’ ”

In other words, the decline in risk aversion has not expanded to include the Euro. This is somewhat surprising, since EU economic indicators have rebounded in the last month. The oft-cited German IFO index “rebounded from a 26-year low,” while “retail sales declined the least in 11 months in April after government stimulus packages improved consumer confidence.” On the other hand, EU lending activity, which is more correlated with economic growth, continues to decline. “The European Central Bank Wednesday released figures showing that banks in the currency area cut their lending to both companies and households in March.”

This is a huge problem for the EU, where the banking sector represents a comparatively important component of the economy.. “At the end of 2007, the stock of outstanding bank loans to the private sector amounted to around 145 percent of gross domestic product, compared to 63 percent in the United States.” This is belied by newspaper headlines that maintain the banking crisis is most severe in the US. In nominal terms, this might be true, but in relative terms, the EU is in much worse shape. Given that exchange rates are all relative, it is worth paying attention to this phenomenon.

The ECB is doing all that it can to help the situation, but many analysts and even some of the Bank’s own members remain critical. “The ambiguity of the ECB’s stance is not helping [the Euro," offered one analyst. The ECB's next meeting is scheduled for May 7, when economists predict the benchmark lending rate will be lowered to 1%. This will appease some investors, but not all. The head of Germany's IFO organization, for instance, has urged the ECB to slash rates down to .25%.

As ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has pointed out, lower rates will not automatically stimulate the economy: "Owing in particular to the very low rate on our deposit facility of 0.25 percent, this difference in policy rates doesn’t translate into equivalent differences in money market rates." In fact, money market rates have largely converged across the EU and US, despite the divergence in short-term rates, vindicating Trichet.

More important, then is the ECB's non-monetary initiatives. To quote Trichet again, "Comparing only the levels of policy rates without consideration of the resulting market rates and other economic variables is looking at just one part of a far broader canvas." The Economist recently published an excellent comparison of the various Central Banks' responses to the credit crisis. While some have embraced their newfound prominence, other Central Banks have shied from the spotlight, insisting that their mandates are limited to inflation targeting. The ECB probably falls into this category, as it has thus far stood on the sidelines - for better or worse- as its counterparts have turned on the printing presses and flooded their respective credit markets with liquidity. [Chart courtesy of The Economist].

This could soon change, and “A commission headed by Jacques de Larosière, a former head of both the Bank of France and the IMF, has recommended that the ECB chair a new European Systemic Risk Council made up of its member central banks and supervisors.” Not all investors are convinced that the ECB can successfully break with tradition. “Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities…recommends investors sell the euro on ‘upticks’ as the ECB abandons ‘monetary orthodoxy’ and uses unconventional measures to spur growth.”

China’s Gold Holdings Surge 76% over Six Years

2009-05-04T07:33:00.000-07:00

Based on the title, you’re probably groaning: ‘Wait, I thought this was supposed to be a forex blog?” Bear with me, however, as this subject is extremely pertinent to forex.

Last week, it was revealed that China has been clandestinely adding to its gold reserves since 2003, to the extent that its holdings increased by 76%, to approximately 1,050 tons. The news initially sent a ripple through forex and commodities markets, which were overwhelmed by the figures involved. After analysts had a chance to gather some perspective, however, the markets relaxed. You see, although the increase seems tremendous in size, it is quite small in relative terms.

It is relatively small compared to other countries: “This places China fifth in the world, ahead of Switzerland’s 1040 tons but behind the U.S. ranked first with 8,133 tons, followed by Germany (3,412 tons), France (2,508 tons) and Italy (2,451 tons).”

It is relatively small given the six-year duration of accumulation: “I think as soon as people realized it’s not a year-on-year increase, or a quarter-on-quarter increase, people realized it should not have that big an impact.”

It is small relative to China’s mammoth $2 Trillion forex reserves: “As a proportion of foreign exchange reserves, which have risen five-fold over the same period, gold now stands at a tiny 1.6 percent, versus 1.7 percent in 2003.”

On some level, the development has at least some symbolic importance, as it demonstrates that it cannot be taken for granted that China will simply continue to plow its (dwindling) trade surplus into Dollar-denominated securities, or even currencies in general. This is underscored by the suspicious timing of the announcement; China essentially waited six years before revealing its buildup in gold, probably in order to coincide with the uproar surrounding the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency. In other words, even though China’s gold purchases in and of themselves don’t amount to much, the Central Bank of China is trying to send a message that it will defend itself against “the depreciation risk of some foreign currencies.”

The announcement also explains the recent buoyancy of gold prices. Historically, there existed an inverse correlation between gold and the Dollar. This correlation has all but broken down as a result of the credit crisis, and for the first time a strong Dollar has been accompanied by high gold prices. Part of the reason may be increased buying activity by Central Banks, including the Bank of China: “The physical market remained well-bid by an unknown buyer despite bullion prices spiking to levels that normally cooled demand…Purchases were made in Shanghai, traders said, in an effort to absorb domestic production and lessen the impact of bullion prices on global markets.”

Forex Market Background

2009-05-04T07:31:00.000-07:00

Forex Market Background
Presented in cooperation with Forex-Training.com

The global marketplace has changed dramatically over the past several years. New investment strategies are becoming more important in order to minimize risk, as well as to maintain high portfolio returns. Among the most rewarding of the markets opening up to traders is the Foreign Exchange market. Identifiable trading patterns, as well as comparatively low margin requirements, have rewarding trading opportunities for many.

In contrast to the world’s stock markets, foreign exchange is traded without the constraints of a central physical exchange. Transactions are instead conducted via telephone or online. With this transaction structure as its foundation, the Foreign Exchange Market has become by far the largest marketplace in the world. Average volume in foreign exchange exceeds $1.5 trillion per day versus only $25 billion per day traded on the New York Stock Exchange. This high volume is advantageous from a trading standpoint because transactions can be executed quickly and with low transaction costs (i.e., a small bid/ask spread).

As a result, foreign exchange trading has long been recognized as a superior investment opportunity by major banks, multinational corporations and other institutions. Today, this market is more widely available to the individual trader than ever before.

Spot foreign exchange is always traded as one currency in relation to another. So a trader who believes that the dollar will rise in relation to the Euro, would sell EURUSD. That is, sell Euros and buy US dollars. Forex-Training.com has compiled the following guide for quoting conventions:

Symbol	Currency Pair	Trading Terminology
GBPUSD	British Pound / US Dollar	"Cable"
EURUSD	Euro / US Dollar	"Euro"
USDJPY	US Dollar / Japanese Yen	"Dollar Yen"
USDCHF	US Dollar / Swiss Franc	"Dollar Swiss", or "Swissy"
USDCAD	US Dollar / Canadian Dollar	"Dollar Canada"
AUDUSD	Australian Dollar / US Dollar	"Aussie Dollar"
EURGBP	Euro / British Pound	"Euro Sterling"
EURJPY	Euro / Japanese Yen	"Euro Yen"
EURCHF	Euro / Swiss Franc	"Euro Swiss"
GBPCHF	British Pound / Swiss Franc	"Sterling Swiss"
GBPJPY	British Pound / Japanese Yen	"Sterling Yen"
CHFJPY	Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen	"Swiss Yen"
NZDUSD	New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar	"New Zealand Dollar" or "Kiwi"
USDZAR	US Dollar / South African Rand	"Dollar Zar" or "South African Rand"
GLDUSD	Spot Gold	"Gold"
SLVUSD	Spot Silver	"Silver"

Spot Forex versus Currency Futures

Many traders have made the switch from currency futures to spot foreign exchange ("forex") trading. Spot foreign exchange offers better liquidity and generally a lower cost of trading than currency futures. Banks and brokers in spot foreign exchange can quote markets 24 hours a day. Furthermore, the spot foreign exchange market is not burdened by exchange and NFA ("National Futures Association") fees, which are generally passed on to the customer in the form of higher commissions. For these reasons, virtually all professional traders and institutions conduct most of their foreign exchange dealing in the spot forex market, not in currency futures.

The mechanics of trading spot forex are similar to those of currency futures. The most important initial difference is the way in which currency pairs are quoted. Currency futures are always quoted as the currency versus the US dollar. In Spot forex, some currencies are quoted this way, while others are quoted as the US dollar versus the currency. For example, in spot forex, EURUSD is quoted the same way as Euro futures. In other words, if the Euro is strengthening, EURUSD will rise just as Euro futures will rise. On the other hand, USDCHF is quoted as US dollars with respect to Swiss Francs, the opposite of Swiss Franc futures. So if the Swiss Franc strengthens with respect to the US dollar, USDCHF will fall, while Swiss Franc futures will rise. The rule in spot forex is that the first currency shown is the currency that is being quoted in terms of direction. For example, "EUR" in EURUSD and "USD" in USDCHF is the currency that is being quoted.

The table below illustrates which spot currencies move parallel to the futures contract and which move inversely (opposite):

Forex Symbol	Currency Pair	Futures Symbol	Directional Relationship
GBPUSD	British Pound / US Dollar	BP	Parallel
EURUSD	Euro / US Dollar	EU	Parallel
USDJPY	US Dollar / Japanese Yen	JY	Inverse
USDCHF	US Dollar / Swiss Franc	SF	Inverse
USDCAD	US Dollar / Canadian Dollar	CD	Inverse
AUDUSD	Australian Dollar / US Dollar	AD	Parallel
NZDUSD	New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar	ND	Paralle

Books about Advanced Forex Trading

2009-04-21T10:42:00.001-07:00

Here you will find the Forex e-books that contain more advanced information than the average popular book about financial trading. In some cases, understanding these books is impossible without a lot of experience in Forex and sometimes the extended knowledge of mathematics.

Almost all Forex e-books are in .pdf format. You'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader to open these e-books. Some of the e-books (those that are in parts) are zipped.

If you are the copyright owner of any of these e-books and don't want me to share them, please, contact me and I will gladly remove them.

A New Interpretation of Information Rate — by J. L. Kelly Jr.

CCI Manual — by James L. O'Connell.

Nicktrader and Jeff Explaining Reverse and Regular Divers — from Woodies CCI Club Discussion From January 15,16 2004.

NickTrader on No Price CCI Divergence Trading — by Nicktrader.

Are Supply and Demand Driving Stock Prices? — by Carl Hopman.

The Sharpe Ratio — by William F. Sharpe.

The Interaction Between the Frequency of Market Quotes, Spread and Volatility in Forex — by Antonis A. Demos and Charles A. E. Goodhart, a scientific article from the Applied Economics.

Trend Determination — by John Hayden, a quick, accurate and effective methodology for trend determination on the financial markets.

Trend vs. No Trend — by Brian Dolan an article from TRADERS' Magazine July 2005 issue, which deals with the trend/no trend paradox encountered by many traders who think that "the trend is your friend".

A Six-Part Study Guide to Market Profile — by CBOT professionals — it describes the concept of the market profile in the smallest details.

How George Soros Knows What He Knows — by Flavia Cymbalista — the study of George Soros' market reflexivity.

Forex Newsletter

2009-04-21T10:40:00.000-07:00

Subscribe to the EarnForex newsletter to get the regular monthly updates on the Forex market and this site. With each newsletter issue you will get the monthly events summary of each Forex traded currency, analysis of the fundamental market situation, examples of my real trades for the month and the important site updates including new ebooks, brokers and expert advisors.

Subscription to this newsletter is completely free and is very easy. Your private data is completely secure and won’t be sold or traded. The newsletter will be sent out only in text format. This will ensure that you will be always able to read it from anywhere. To subscribe, please, fill and submit the following form and then click on the confirmation link in the e-mail message, that you will receive in a few minutes.

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You will be able to unsubscribe from this Forex newsletter at any time. I respect your privacy and you won’t be disturbed after the unsubscription.

The Truth about Money Management

2009-04-21T10:24:00.000-07:00

The new e-book (actually an article excerpt from the Futures Magazine) was uploaded to my site today. It’s about the risk control and money management in Forex and elsewhere. The whole book is only 4 pages long, but it succeeds in introducing the most important approaches to money management theory and practice. For those who are too lazy to read these 4 pages, in the end the author of this book gives 5 steps (or rules) that should be followed for the successful risk managing of the general financial trading. Download link:

The Truth About Money Management by Murray A. Ruggiero Jr.

Yen Continues to Drop Despite Government Stimulus Plan

2009-04-11T07:13:00.000-07:00

The Yen continues its decline against the Dollar and Euro, dipping well below 100 Yen/Dollar en route to a six-month low. Most analysts attribute this trend to a pickup in risk aversion: “Some kind of optimism is returning to the market and that’s putting pressure on the yen,” explained one analyst succinctly.

An ongoing rally in stocks and commodities is reinforcing investor attitudes that the economic recession is under control, and is stimulating risk-taking. In other words, the same forces that contributed to the unwinding of the carry trade during the beginning of the credit crisis, are now working in reverse and causing investors to flee from the Yen en masse. “As long as stocks can retain their buoyancy… risk appetite and risk-based trades will be in vogue and investors will continue to add to and rebuild yen short positions.”

According to the most recent International Monetary Market report, “Short positions on the currency have been building up for three consecutive weeks, and are now at levels last seen in the late summer of 2008,” which means the Yen’s slide has basically become self-fulfilling. From a technical standpoint, “A move above 101.00 yen was technically significant as it was a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its decline from a peak in 2007 to its 13-year low in January.” Even domestic Japanese investors have signaled their bearishness by taking advantage of last week’s Yen upswing by making “aggressive purchases of foreign bonds.”

From a fundamental standpoint, the decline in the Yen makes sense, given the abysmal economic situation in Japan. In fact, the “Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s March meeting showed members of the central bank were leaning toward cutting the bank’s economic forecast in April, and that they believed the BOJ would need to continue to provide substantial liquidity to financial markets that they see as still under substantial stress.”

The government is finally responding to the economic crisis, having most recently unveiled a $150 Billion plan, to supplement the $100 Billion initiative announced earlier this year. “If implemented competently, these steps could stabilize the domestic economy and stop the bleeding in labor markets.” At the same time, the intertwined tailspin in confidence and spending suggest that the government’s efforts could be in vain.

While equity investors have reacted positively - pushing the stock market into positive territory for the year- bond and currency traders are understandably concerned. Yields on Japanese bonds are already rising in anticipation of $100 Billion in bonds that the government will have to issue in 2009 alone. Naturally, the burden to purchase these bonds will fall on the Bank of Japan, which will be forced to print money and contribute to the further devaluation of the Yen in the process.

Ultimately, the duration of the Yen’s slide depends on the duration of the global stock market rally. If you believe that the global economy has turned a corner, then the Yen is done. If, on the other hand, you are inclined to side with George Soros, who opined recently that “It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” then there is still cause for Yen bullishness.

Risk Aversion Returns to Forex as Hope from G20 Fades

2009-04-11T07:12:00.000-07:00

The period leading up to the G20 meeting was generally marked by optimism and hopefulness. One commentator urged his readers: “Don’t write off the London G20 meeting. It could lay the foundations for fundamental global change, impacting currencies, gold and bond markets.”

On some level, the meeting probably did fulfill expectations. After only a few hours of discussions, the G20 agreed to “stricter limits on hedge funds, executive pay, credit-rating companies and risk-taking by banks. The summit also committed more than $US1 trillion to boost the resources of the International Monetary Fund and provide emergency cash to help distressed countries.”

Investors rejoiced and the markets rallied, with the Dow rising above 8000 points and capping “the best four-week rally since the week ending May 12, 1933.” Bulls can now retort that the stock market bust of 1929 took four years to recover, while the recession of 2008-2009 required less than one year. Forex markets also reacted “positively” to the G20 summit, lifting the Dollar above the important psychological barrier of 100 Yen/USD, and causing emerging market currencies to rise across the board.

Monday, however marked a return to business as usual: “Post-G20 euphoria, which had helped to boost market confidence about a global recovery, proved short-lived as investors once again focused on the continued risks to the banking system.” It was probably only a matter of time before investors drilled beneath the surface of the impressive-sounding G20 rhetoric and large numbers, into the nuts and bolts of the summit’s policy prescriptions. [The chart below comes courtesy of the New York Times].

The headline-grabbing $1.1 Trillion figure, for example, is somewhat misleading. Over half of the $500 Billion “pledged” to the International Monetary Fund has either not been raised or not been explicitly authorized. Then, there is $350 Billion in trade credit, most of which is either redundant or double-counted, since “trade financing is rolled over every six months as exporters get paid for their goods and repay the agencies that lent them the money.” The remaining $250 Billion is accounted for in the issuance of IMF synthetic currency to member nations. However, given that the synthetic currency derives a significant portion of its value from the Dollar and Euro, this program cannot be effective if the US and EU opt out, of which there is a real possibility.

The summit also failed to meaningfully address concerns of the continued ole of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. The expansion of the IMF synthetic currency program represents an important starting point, but at this point, it looks like China and the other supporters of an alternative system will have to wait for the next G20 meeting, to be held in September.

One commentator captured this frustration quite well: “The G20 Plan…tries very hard to preserve and perpetuate the existing US helmed global financial and economic order. An act of commission, on the one hand— buttressing the IMF— and an act of omission, on the other— remaining silent on the position of the US dollar— bear testimony to this.”

IMF Currency Could Threaten Dollar’s Reserve Status

2009-04-11T07:11:00.000-07:00

Last week, SDR became the latest addition to the growing list of forex acronyms. So-called Special Drawing Rights are a unit of account used by the IMF, “defined as the value of a fixed amount of yen, dollars, pounds and euros, expressed in dollars at the current exchange rate. The composition of the basket is altered every five years to reflect changes in the importance of different currencies in the world’s trading system.”

The sudden rise to popularity of SDRs (in spite of their 40 year history) can be attributed both to developing countries’ growing unease about the status of the Dollar, as well as to their perceived usefulness as a tool in fending off economic depression. Ignoring the latter- for the purpose of this post- let’s look, at how SDRs will impact the role of the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

First of all, as I noted in Tuesday’s post, the success/scope of the SDR program depends on the positions of the US and EU, the largest and most important members. In the case of the US, the most recent SDR expansion (1997) was never implemented because the US blocked it. Neither can the support of the EU be taken for granted. According to one member of the European Central Bank, “There was no examination of whether there is a global need for additional liquidity at all… One used to take a lot of time to examine something like this.”

In addition, it’s not clear what benefits the synthetic currency would yield. Asks one commentator: “What is one to tie it to?…in a world of depleting resources it is difficult to fathom how to create a list of constituents which would not constrain global growth and tie us into many years of deflation.” In other words, given that the SDRs will derive their value from underlying currencies, it doesn’t seem like the end result would be anymore stable than the current system.

China, meanwhile, has showed fervent support for the expansion in the form of a $40 Billion pledge, which is not surprising since a report issued by the head of its Central Bank provided some of the impetus. This $40 Billion is tantamount to an exchange of Dollars for a basket of currencies. The benefit to China is articulated by one analyst as follows: “ ‘We could see the IMF being put in a position where it could raise in the capital markets funds in SDR-denominated debt….The debt could be used ‘by China and other central banks to be put into their currency reserves, at the expense of the U.S. dollar.’ “

Is Gold a Hedge Against Inflation and Currency Weakness?

2009-04-01T07:45:00.000-07:00

Until the Fed announced an expansion of its quantitative easing program two weeks ago, gold had begun to fade into relative obscurity. Sure, gold had risen in value from a low of $710/ounce back up to $900/ounce, but prices were still off 10% from the highs reached in 2008. Meanwhile, risk aversion had begun to decline and the stock market had begun to rise, such that pundits were talking more about stocks and less about gold.

Since the Fed’s announcement, however, gold has been thrust back into the spotlight. The same trading session that saw a record fall in the Dollar and a record rise in Treasury prices, also witnessed a 7% spike in gold futures prices. ” ‘Money is being pushed into the system and that’s creating the inflationary threats that the markets are contemplating…Commodities are a decent way to hedge against that potential threat,’ ” observed one trader.

Other analysts, however, caution that rising gold prices are a sign of the fear/crisis mentality, not inflation. “There are just not a lot of alternatives for global investors. You will see more and more investors moving into gold as a safe haven, and you will see more institutions putting money into commodities indexes.” In other words, gold is being driven by the safe-haven trade, which is evidenced by an increasing correlation with Treasury bonds. One commentator calls it a hedge against uncertainty: “The demand for gold is for gold coins, a massive flurry of bullion buying by ETF’s (and investors), and the institutions and traders buying the hell out of it. The reason is simple… pure fear.”

With the exception of the perennial gold bulls and conspiracy theorists, the short-term consensus is that due to “massive spare capacity now opening up in the global economy, soaring unemployment and a dysfunctional banking system – it would be very hard for central banks to generate a surge in inflation even if they wanted to.” This analyst further argues that the Fed is undertaking the expansionary program under the implicit assumption that it will have to siphon this money out of the financial system, if and when the economy recovers.

Of course, there is not even a consensus that gold is a good hedge against inflation. Mike Mish points out that the correlation between the US money supply and the price of gold is not very robust. When examined relative to a basket of currencies (rather than the Dollar), however, the relationship suddenly becomes much stronger. Especially when you filter out fluctuations in the value of the Dollar (which is affected by many factors unrelated to inflation), “gold is doing a reasonably good job of maintaining purchasing power parity on a worldwide basis.” This can be seen in the following chart:

Ascertaining a relationship ultimately depends on the time period of analysis, and the currency(s) in which prices are being tracked. Given also gold’s notorious volatility, it probably makes sense to use special inflation protected securities, rather than gold, as an inflation hedge.

ECB Prepares to Lower Rates, Euro Rally Fades

2009-04-01T07:24:00.000-07:00

On Thursday, the European Central Bank will conduct its monthly monetary policy meeting. The consensus among analysts is that the meeting will lead to a 50 basis point cut, leaving the EU’s benchmark lending rate at 1%, a record low. Investors are also bracing for the ECB to announce certain unconventional steps, similar to the Fed’s program of quantitative easing, although not to such an extent. Analysts have speculated that the ECB “could intervene in bond markets to help ease companies’ financing problems.”

This marks an about-face from current policy and recent rhetoric, in which the ECB insisted that guarding against inflation was more important than providing economic stimulus. In fact, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, has recently found himself on the defensive: “I don’t think it is justified to say we are doing less on this side of the Atlantic. We have automatic stabilizers,” he said during his quarterly testimony in front of European Parliament. In fact, the ECB had become an outcast among Central Banks for waiting a long time before finally agreeing to cut interest rates. Since embarking on a program of monetary easing, it has been playing catch-up by cutting rates at breakneck speed.

It appears that the ECB’s arm was twisted by the most recent economic data; a sudden drop in German manufacturing suggests that the recession is both spreading and deepening. Combined with a record drop in the EU economic sentiment, this “suggests that the euro zone economy will have contracted by roughly 2 percent quarter on quarter in the first three months of the year.” In addition, both producer and consumer prices have eased, such that inflation has fallen well below the 2% target level, and the ECB lost its last excuse for not dropping rates.

As a result both of the worsening economic situation, as well as the projected decline in yields, currency traders are once again questioning the Euro. The last couple weeks have been rife with commentary that the Dollar rally had come to an end as a result of the intensification of the Fed’s plan to use newly printed money to as a source of liquidity in the credit markets. “The dollar’s traditional trading patterns have been altered in the wake of new U.S. quantitative-easing measures. Risk appetite, stocks and funding currencies appear to hold lesser influence lately.”

This week, the narrative in forex markets favors the Dollar. It could be that the safe-haven trade has returned to lift the Greenback, but more likely is that investors are comparing economic fundamentals when making bets on currencies. One analyst summarized his firm’s position as follows: “We have argued that the leveraging-de-leveraging axis has been the key driver in the foreign exchange market. We expect a new driver, anticipated growth trajectories, to emerge…[and] for the dollar’s uptrend to resume in the second quarter.”

Korean Won Continues to Plummet as a Result of Acute Dollar Shortage

2009-03-17T18:07:00.000-07:00

The Korean Won is among the biggest losers of the credit crisis, excluding Iceland of course. The currency has fallen 40% against the Dollar over the last year, even adjusting for a 10% rise in the last week. South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun blames currency speculators, pledging that “The government will not sit idle when the foreign exchange rate is excessively tilted toward one direction or when there are speculative forces.”

Perhaps understanding that it cannot possibly hope to defend its currency against such a broad tide of determined speculators, the Central Bank of Korea has all but given up on intervening in forex markets. “South Korea was the catalyst for the shift away from defensive intervention. After spending 22 percent of foreign reserves from August to November to stem won losses, Yoon…said Feb. 25 that its weakness may be an ‘engine for export growth.’ ”

There is some plausibility to this argument, since South Korean economic fundamentals (as bleak as they are) probably don’t support such a precipitous decline in the Won. In fact some South Korean exporters have benefited from the weak currency, with companies such as Hyundai and Samsung growing revenues and increasing market share. Still, the global recession has impelled foreign consumers to cut back on spending, with the end result that “A double-digit fall in exports in the last three months of 2008 seriously undermined industrial production, [and] a 16% plunge in facility investment was an equally important factor in the 5.6% contraction in Korea’s GDP from the previous quarter.”

Ultimately, the Won’s decline is being driven by an acute shortage of Dollars. A relatively large portion of Korean public and private debt is denominated in foreign currency. The collapse in liquidity spurred by the credit crisis and consequent decline in bank lending have made it very difficult for South Korean borrowers to procure the requisite Dollars to repay their loans, causing a large imbalance in the supply and demand for the Dollar within Korea. Even more alarming is that $150 Billion of such debt will come due in the immediate future. “The government stresses that foreign debt maturing within a year amounts to 77% of its foreign exchange holdings, meaning Korea can cover its obligations. However, no other Asian nation that investors care about has such a high ratio of short-term external debt (on a remaining maturity basis) to foreign exchange reserves.”

South Korea recently extended a swap agreement with the US, which enables it to exchange up to $30 Billion in Won for Dollars. Investors are evidently hopeful that this represents a step towards easing the Dollar shortage, as the news caused the Won to appreciate by the largest margin in months. Borrowing costs for Korean firms remain high, and the odds remain tilted against them. Unless the US financial system stabilizes and/or Korea is able to run a current account surplus (as a result of increased foreign investment), liquidity will remain a problem.

Central Banks Maintain Holdings of US Treasury Securities, but For How Long?

2009-03-17T18:06:00.000-07:00

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao aired his country’s growing concerns about continuing to lend money to the US. Within the context of the US economic stimulus plan and other related US spending initiatives, Mr. Wen is understandably anxious about China’s vast holdings of US Treasury securities:

President Obama and his new government have adopted a series of measures to deal with the financial crisis. We have expectations as to the effects of these measures. We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.

While the announcement represented political posturing (to an increasingly restless, domestic Chinese audience), it should nonetheless be heeded as a warning, that the US cannot expect China (and other foreign Central Banks) to fund US budget deficits indefinitely.

Let’s put aside the rhetoric for a moment, and examine the data. This week witnessed strong demand for Treasury securities, which were auctioned by the Treasury Department on consecutive days. Despite historically low yields (see chart), investors continue to snap up Treasury Bonds, mainly for the sake of risk aversion. The newly-revived issuance of 30-year bonds also went off without a hitch, and were more than 2x oversubscribed. Most relevant to this discussion is the fact the foreign Central Banks accounted for as much as 46% of demand!

The most recent Federal Reserve Statistical Release paints a similar picture. While foreign Central Banks and other international institutions reduced their holdings of US government securities slightly from the previous week, the decrease was essentially negligible. Overall, such entities have increased their holdings by at least $440 Billion over the previous year, bringing the total to approximately $3 Trillion (depending on the data source). China’s contribution remains substantial. Of its $2 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves, “Economists say half of that money has been invested in United States Treasury notes and other government-backed debt.”

However, there are a few reasons why I don’t think this trend will continue. First of all, the buildup in foreign Treasury holdings that transpired over the last decade was largely a product of unsustainable global economic imbalances, as net exporters to the US invested their perennial trade surpluses in what they perceived to be the world’s most secure investment. Temporarily putting aside whether Treasuries are actually secure, economic indicators suggest that Central Banks simply do not have the capacity to increase their holdings by much more. China’s trade surplus plummeted to $4.8 Billion last month; one economist projects a surplus of only $155 Billion in 2009, compared to nearly $300 Billion in 2008.

You can also remove from the list Japan- the second-largest holder of US Treasury securities- which is now running a trade deficit. Instead, both countries have publicly announced plans to use some of their forex reserves to fund domestic economic initiatives.

Then there is the equally unsustainable short-term buildup in US Treasuries, which is largely a product of technical factors. As I mentioned above- and which should be clear to all investors- the current theme underlying securities markets is one of risk aversion. In fact, it now appears that a bubble is forming in the bond market, and “any exodus now could spark selling across the board. Foreign debt holders would likely repatriate their funds immediately to reduce the risk of being last to convert.” As soon as markets recover- of which there are already nascent indications- investors will probably reduce their holdings of government bonds, or at least not increase their holdings.

Even the most conservative projections indicate a cumulative budget deficit for the next few years measuring in the the Trillions. Unless the risk-aversion theme obtains for the next decade, it seems unlikely that foreigners can be tapped to fund more than a small portion, leaving the Federal Reserve (with the help of its printing press) to make up the shortfall.

How to Develop and Backtest a Profitable Forex Trading Strategy

2009-03-17T18:04:00.000-07:00

The holy grail of forex is a trading system that can turn a consistent profit, irrespective of the currencies involved and prevailing market conditions. While this has been promoted disingenuously by many a forex broker and forex software provider, suffice it to say that it remains elusive. A more realistic goal would be to build a strategy that is profitable most of the time (i.e. wins more than it loses). I don’t pretend to have developed such a strategy; instead, I would like to outline a method that can be used to confirm (or deny) whether your strategies are strong enough to withstand the daily whims of the forex markets: backtesting.

Simply put, backtesting involves applying a trading strategy to historical data. In other words, by checking the parameters that normally guide your trading against the way markets actually performed in the past, you can easily determine the stipulations/conditions that will make such parameters robust. Parameters include time period (hours, days, weeks, etc.), expected profit per trade (percentage, or number of pips), cumulative profit goal (i.e. 25% annual return) currency pair (USD/EUR, EUR/YEN, etc.) and comfort with risk (i.e. stop/loss). Stipulations, on the other hand, can be as simple or as complicated as you would like. For example, let’s say you want to buy whenever the currency pair breaches its 15-day moving average, and/or sell when the stochastic falls below a certain threshold. These kinds of stipulations can also be qualitative; let’s say, for example, you sell the Euro every time the European Central Bank lowers interest rates, or buy the Dollar every time the consumer confidence index records a rise.

The most robust strategies are profitable under a variety of market conditions, when profit goals are flexible. (For example, try adding or subtracting 5 pips to your expected profit per trade, and see if your strategy is still profitable). It is also important to remember that some strategies don’t lend themselves well to backtesting. Trendlines and other technical ‘patterns,’ for example, are often too circumstantial to be applied and tested generally. Backtesting also doesn’t account for market psyschology. While it would be nice to devise a strategy that is profitable in a variety of conditions, sometimes it must be condeded that when market sentiment is especially (and often irrationally) bullish or bearish, one’s strategy may not apply.

Having developed the paramaters and stipulations, how can you backtest your strategy? The pioneers (and perhaps even some stalwarts today) manually parsed reams of data, going through daily and weekly charts to determine the sets of conditions, if any, their strategies were viable. With the use of powerful computers, this tedious process can be completed automatically. If you’re not up for building/coding a system yourself, don’t despair, as there are a handful of great programs that have been professionally designed for amateurs to use.

Here, you have two main options. You can open a (demo) account with any of the forex brokers that incorporate backtesting software into their trading platforms. Pay special attention to those that use MetaTrader4 (MT4) - of which there are several reputable brokers- because it is the most critically-acclaimed and user-friendly. For those of you who don’t have access to such software, several downloadable versions can be found here, and a quick google search turned up a list of commercial software. Sometimes, such software requires you to provide your own historical data, which can be found here.

Dollar Retains Safe Haven Status

2009-03-03T01:52:00.000-08:00

The ForexBlog recently reported that investors were cautiously wading back into emerging market currencies. In hindsight, it looks like this report was delivered prematurely, as this week marked a return to the notion of the Dollar as save haven currency, having displaced even the Japanese Yen. While President Obama did his best to assure taxpayers and investors that the economic stimulus would bring the economy out of its slump, the markets were unconvinced. Economic data, especially as it pertains to the housing market, has become increasingly grim, and even Chairman Bernanke of the Federal Reserve conceded that a recovery is unlikely before 2010. Given that the government will have to issue a tremendous quantity of Treasury Bonds in order to fund its ambitious spending plans, however, it’s possible that foreign investors will soon lose their appetite for low-yielding American securities. Reuters reports:

Any optimism that the global economy could be recovering, however, should prompt investors to sell the dollar and buy riskier assets and currencies.”When panic and risk aversion abate, money will start flowing into other regions such as Europe,” said a portfolio manager.

Asia Forms Forex Pool

2009-03-03T01:51:00.002-08:00

After nearly six months of currency depreciation, the nations of Asia have finally been spurred to action. Japan, China, and South Korea have joined together with the 10 ASEAN economies to form a $120 Billion pool of foreign exchange reserves, which contributors can tap into to protect their currencies. The goal is to prevent capital flight and currency weakness from engendering the same kind of financial crisis that only 10 years ago ravaged Asia. Fortunately, this time around, the 13 countries possess a combined $3.6 Trillion in reserves, which can be deployed in forex and securities markets in order to restore investor confidence. Ironically, the bulk of these reserves belong to China and Japan (who are also funding a large portion of the forex pool), both of whose currencies remain strong in spite of the crisis. Bloomberg News reports:

The fund is aimed at ensuring central banks have enough to shield their currencies from speculative attacks such as those that depleted the reserves of Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea during the 1997-1998 financial crisis.

Investors Return to Emerging Markets

2009-03-03T01:51:00.001-08:00

In the last few weeks, investors have waded cautiously back into emerging markets. Spurred in part by the Obama economic stimulus plan and pending US investment in Citigroup, investors have evidently been persuaded to take on more risk. The Japanese Yen, accordingly, has already begun to beat a retreat from the highs it reached earlier this year. If this trend continues, the US Dollar could become the next “victim.” On the other side of the equation are currencies such as the South African Rand, which have benefited from a renewed interest in yield, as well as increased monetary stability driven by lower inflation. Ultimately, this movement of capital can just as easily reverse itself, which it no doubt will at the next economic hiccup. Bloomberg News reports:

“There is a little more risk appetite,” said..an analyst. “The rand is being driven by offshore sentiment.”

Eastern Europe Plagued by Currency Instability

2009-03-03T01:50:00.000-08:00

The credit crisis continues to exact a devastating toll on the economies of Eastern Europe, and capital flight has caused the region’s currencies to plummet precipitously. This has prompted internal debate in countries such as Poland, Czech Republic, and Latvia - to name a few- as to whether the effects of the crisis would have been so blunt had they adopted the Euro. While certainly Euro membership would have spared them from currency instability, it would not have necessarily facilitated financial and economic stability, as Italy, Spain, and Greece have learned the hard way. Regardless of whether Eastern European countries are politically willing to commit to the Euro (itself doubtful), this debate is largely moot, since the credit crisis has all but eliminated their ability to meet the preconditions of membership in the short run. The New York Times reports:

The Baltic states would like to join as quickly as possible, but their economies are contracting so much that it would be impossible to meet the criteria, which, among other things, stipulates that budget deficits should be below 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Yuan Revaluation is in China’s Interest

2009-03-03T01:49:00.000-08:00

While China remains committed, in rhetoric at least, to a flexible Chinese Yuan that rises and falls in accordance with market forces, its actions suggest otherwise. Beginning in the second half of 2008, China stopped allowing the Yuan to appreciate, for fear that a more expensive currency would exacerbate the domestic effects of the credit crisis by making exports less competitive. What China fails to realize however, is that a more valuable Yuan is not only conducive to global economic stability, but also to its own economic well-being. In fact, the artificially cheap Yuan may have actually worsened the economic downturn in China, because de-incentivized the creation of a domestic economic base. Now that overseas demand has dried up, it is left feeling the consequences of this neglect. The San Francisco Chronicle reports:

With China far too dependent on export-driven growth, it is now extremely vulnerable to the current steep decline in global export demand. Unless that structural imbalance is fixed, China’s long-term growth prospects are as bleak as those of the United States.

Japanese Yen Braces for Intervention

2009-03-03T01:48:00.002-08:00

After months of speculation, it appears that forex markets have finally concluded that the Central Bank of Japan is now prepared to bring down the Yen. On the one hand, the Finance Minister of Japan very publicly denied that the overvalued Yen and the consequent need for forex intervention was discussed during either his personal conversation with US Treasury Secretary Geithner or at the most recent G7 conference. At the same time, he pledged the willingness of Japan to fight “excessive swings” in forex and capital markets. Meanwhile, the expensive Japanese Yen has already trickled down to the economy, driving a 12.7% decline in GDP (in annualized terms) for the most recent quarter. The Yen, accordingly, has begun its retreat, already erasing nearly 10% of the gains it racked up against the Dollar over the last year. Reuters reports:

Japan, like the United States, is in recession and can ill afford a rising currency, which puts an extra choke-hold on exporters that are cutting jobs and shuttering factories in the face of a global slump in demand.

ECB Hints at Rate Cut

2009-03-03T01:48:00.001-08:00

At its next meeting, to be held in March, the European Central Bank is all but certain to bow to pressure and cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low. This should not come as a surprise, for the ECB’s February decision to hold rates constant was met with a large outcry, in both public and private circles. Soon-to-be-released inflation data is expected to confirm that prices are rising at a slower pace, perhaps even below the ECB’s 2% benchmark. Members of the Bank are also paying attention to the Euro, the continued weakness of which is ironically a product of the ECB’s comparatively tight monetary policy, as investors guard themselves against the risk of deflation. The Guardian reports:

As the economy falters, speculation is also increasing that the ECB may expand its monetary toolbox, possibly through asset purchases, to boost growth while keeping rates relatively high compared to other central banks.

The reversal of Interest Rate Parity

2009-03-03T01:42:00.000-08:00

Convention forex wisdom, as well as the "immutable" laws of economics, have long held that higher interest rates correspond with currency appreciation. This has been especially true in recent years, as risk-hungry investors used low-yielding currencies to fund carry trades, the proceeds of which were invested in higher-yielding alternatives. In the context of the credit crisis, however, this logic has been turned on its head, as the countries with the lowest interest rates have seen their currencies outperform. Emerging market economies that have turned bearish on inflation have likewise been rewarded with strong currencies, despite a potential imbalance in the risk/reward profile. This phenomenon suggests that investors are primarily concerned with deflation, and are parking their money in the countries they believe can best preserve their capital, even if the real rate of return is negative. One analyst argues this could spur further interest in gold, reports SeekingAlpha:

If it [the Euro] also joins the zero interest band-wagon then one may wonder what’s left for the currency markets to play with? Is this is a precursor to a crisis brewing here? Does gold get a further leg up – it’s a zero yield currency anyway!

Forex Reserves Backfire

2009-02-18T05:41:00.001-08:00

Prevailing wisdom has long held that the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has helped stabilize emerging market economies by cushioning them against economic shocks. The economies of Asia, in particular, were praised by economists for responding to the 1997 Southeast Asian economic crisis by building up their reserves to guard against runs on their currencies in the future. In hindsight, however, the accumulation of reserves may have actually contributed to the current economic crisis, by facilitating the formation of massive global economic imbalances. High savings rates in Asia, for example, enabled western countries to run continuous current account deficits. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost, and developing economies are once again finding themselves vulnerable to recession, since their forex reserve policies came at the expense of developing domestic economic bases. The Times of India reports:

Re-balancing means that Asian countries must stop piling up ever-rising forex reserves (and trade surpluses). Such reserves represent excessive saving, excessive exports and insufficient imports.

The reversal of Interest Rate Parity

2009-02-18T05:40:00.000-08:00

US and Japan Should Form "Forex Partnership"

2009-02-18T05:39:00.000-08:00

While continuing to deny the possibility of direct forex intervention, Japan is nonetheless desperate to halt the rise in the Yen. The primary concern of the US government, meanwhile, is not that the Dollar is becoming too valuable, but rather that it will face great difficulty in funding its economic stimulus plan. Perhaps there exists a golden opportunity to simultaneously alleviate both of these quandaries; Japan should be solicited to buy US government bonds. A large-scale purchase of US Treasury securities by the Central Bank of Japan would be tantamount to intervention, and would probably lead to a decline in the Yen, at least against the Dollar. Of course the US would benefit not only by the direct purchase of its bonds, but also by the positive signal that this would send to other institutional investors. Besides, given that China is in no position to increase its holdings of US Treasury securities, Japan represents the best candidate for partnership. The Washington Post reports:

Achieving such a currency adjustment may seem farfetched, but the yen-dollar exchange rate historically has been heavily influenced by the market's perception of the U.S. and Japanese governments' comfort level for the currency relationship.

Chinese Yuan: Up or Down?

2009-02-18T05:38:00.000-08:00

Speculation surrounding the Chinese Yuan has been mounting for months, beginning with a sudden halt to the currency's appreciation and continuing with the insinuation of the Obama administration that China is a currency manipulator. In the context of falling exports and a sagging economy, meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Finance has issued a research report encouraging the Central Bank to allow the currency to appreciate. Despite the Central Bank's insistence that it wants a "stable" currency, futures prices indicate a mean expectation that in fact, the Yuan will be nudged downward over the next twelve months. On the other side of the equation are financial analysts, who collectively forecast a slightly stronger Yuan, with one bullish analyst projecting a 3.5% appreciation in 2009, on the basis of selectively culled economic data. Bloomberg News reports:

“The consensus around China has been weak growth and falling reserves. The recent data challenges both views. Lending looks good, money supply looks good, and the PMI balanced to slightly bad from very bad levels."

ECB Holds Rates

2009-02-09T17:09:00.000-08:00

After "profound" debate, the European Central Bank voted yesterday to hold its benchmark interest rate constant at 2%. Despite the acknowledged fact that EU inflation has slid to the lowest level in a decade, the ECB remains unconvinced that it has been tamed. It is apparently concerned that further interest rate cuts could trigger a loss of confidence and hyper-inflationary spiral, from which it would be difficult to escape. The Bank's critics, meanwhile, insist that it is increasingly out of touch with economic reality and is falling further behind the curve, especially compared to the Fed and bank of England, which have already lowered rates to record lows. They further argue that this viewpoint is reflected in the Euro, which is losing the battle as safe haven currency with the Dollar. Nonetheless, it appears that investors accept the reasoning of the ECB, and the Euro reacted to the rate hold with indifference. The Financial Times reports:

The ECB president...said only that a zero interest rate policy had a “number of drawbacks” that should be avoided, without specifying what they were.

Mexico Intervenes on Behalf of Peso

2009-02-09T17:08:00.000-08:00

Most of the speculation in recent weeks concerning forex intervention has focused on Japan and Russia. The Central Bank of Mexico, meanwhile, has slipped quietly into forex markets to protect its battered Peso, which has fallen over 30% over the last six months. It's unclear whether Mexico's efforts, combined with support from the US, will be enough to stem further decline, considering that economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate. At the very least, the move serves as a symbolic warning to market bears, that the Central Bank is monitoring the situation, and is prepared to defend its currency accordingly. Mexico could also serve as a case study for other emerging market economies, most of which have witnessed minor runs on their currencies since the inception of the credit crisis. At the same time, it would be a mistake for them to assume that they could protect their currencies at fixed exchange rates, given Russia's recent failure to achieve such a result. Bloomberg News reports:

Russia “bungled by trying to draw a line in the sand,” said [one analyst]. “Emerging market currencies won’t see any relief till crisis is past.”

USD Mimics Gold

2009-02-09T17:07:00.000-08:00

Investing wisdom has long held that gold is used to hedge (Dollar) inflation; historically, the two commodities have tended to trade inversely with one another. In the last month, this relationship appears to have broken down. As the credit crisis has entered a new critical stage, investors have come to view both the Dollar and the gold as safe havens in a sea of uncertainty. To elaborate, the Dollar is being purchased primarily to pay down debt, with the proceeds invested in low-risk, low-return vehicles. Gold, in turn, is being used as a form of insurance, as a "deflationary backstop" in case the bets on the Dollar miss the mark. In short, the Euro and Gold are no longer friends. BullionVault reports:

"The new dynamic in risk aversion now means that when the EUR/USD goes up then traders must sell their gold – since a higher Euro implies lower risk in the overall markets and hence less need to hoard the yellow stuff."

US Must be Careful with Chinese Yuan Issue

2009-02-09T17:02:00.000-08:00

It appears Timothy Geithner, recently-appointed US Treasury Secretary, was not exaggerating when he declared that the Obama administration intends to address China's currency policy. No less than President Obama himself rrecently called Hu JinTao, President of China, to inform him likewise. Unfortunately, the administration does not exactly have support from political and economic analysts. They argue that not only is the Yuan's "true" value debatable, but also that now is not an opportune time to pursue this issue, due to current economic circumstances. Givent that the Yuan has been permitted to appreciate almost 20% in the last four years and that the Chinese accumulation of forex reserves has begun to slow, perhaps Obama's prodding could even backfire. Bloomberg News reports:

There’s also a be-careful-what- you-wish-for angle here: If China tomorrow let the yuan trade freely in markets, it’s more likely to drop in value than surge. So-called hot money may flee, global companies may repatriate profits and Chinese savers might buy overseas assets.

British Pound: It's All Relative

2009-02-02T09:07:00.000-08:00

Since the inception of the credit crisis, perhaps no currency has been beaten down more than the British Pound, with analysts bitterly divided about whether the currency will fall further. A lot depends on whether the British efforts to save its devastated banking sector are successful. The government has already moved to nationalize the Bank of Scotland, and is quickly moving to shore up the capital positions of other vulnerable banks. Experts point to the Pound's historic volatility, however, as an indication that investors have always fled, and will continue to flee the UK in times of uncertainty. Jim Rogers, whose partner George Soros famously "broke" the Bank of England in 1992, forecasts a bleak future, although his motives are questionable. Ultimately, the fate of the Pound is entirely relative, as is the case with all currencies. In other words, if investors suddenly changed their minds about the perceived stability of the Dollar and Yen, the Pound could quickly recover. Business Week reports:

As investors begin to renew their focus on the problems of other economies, the pressure on sterling may ease. The selling could turn to buying if investors suddenly decide they'd rather take a little risk to earn return, rather than watching their cash evaporate.

EU Periphery Laments Euro Membership

2009-02-02T09:06:00.000-08:00

Only last year, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain were collectively the pride of the EU, boasting strong growth characteristics and buoyant capital markets. In hindsight, this was but a mirage, as the stability of Euro-membership allowed such "peripheral" economies to embark on a colossal building boom and spending spree that was ultimately baseless. Greece, which is perhaps in the worst shape of the lot, witnessed its twin deficits (government debt and trade) rise to dangerous levels; given its membership in the EU, it is unable to resort to currency depreciation to rectify the problem.

The illusion has since been shattered, and it seems investors are trying to overcompensate for their previous naivete. Yields on government bonds for all five countries have begun to creep up, and a handful of speculators are betting on the possibility of default. Most experts insist that such a scenario is unlikely, but at the very least, the credit crisis has exposed the chinks in the armor of the EU, demonstrating that the currency also has its drawbacks. The New York Times reports:

While sharing a currency with some of the mightiest economies in the world helped Europe's poorer nations share in the wealth, a boon during boom times, in hard times the rules of membership are keeping them from doing what countries normally do to ride out economic storms, including enormous spending.

Swiss Franc in Spotlight

2009-02-02T09:05:00.000-08:00

The Swiss Franc is in the same boat as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, benefiting from an increase in risk aversion and an unwinding of carry trade positions. In other words, the currency rising on the back of the sound monetary policy of the National Bank of Switzerland, with its low rate of inflation and proportionately low interest rate. Despite the fact that the Swiss economy is poised to contract in 2009, its economy is in better shape than its rivals, and its current account balance is still in surplus. As a result, the consensus among analysts is that investors will continue to flock to the Franc, as Switzerland is sill perceived as a relatively low-risk place to invest. Especially compared to the Euro, which has risen against the Dollar of late, the Swiss Franc remains undervalued. Bloomberg News reports:

Investors are drawn to the franc in times of international tension and economic upheaval because of the country’s history of neutrality and political stability.

Japan Moves Closer to Intervention

2009-02-02T09:04:00.000-08:00

Despite backed by negative real interest rates, the Japanese Yen continues to grind upwards, threatening to break through significant psychological and technical barriers. From a monetary standpoint, the Bank of Japan is basically out of options with regard to limiting the currency's upward momentum. Its sole remaining tool is its $1 Trillion in foreign exchange reserves, which it could release directly into currency markets to depress the Yen. It has been four years since Japan last employed such a strategy, and it appears reluctant to dip into the reserves again for fear of offending the G8, which has discouraged such action. The BOJ is also reluctant to build its holdings of US Treasuries (which would be a collateral requirement of holding down the Yen), because bond prices have become inflated. However, loss of face may soon become the least of its concerns, as the economy slides deeper into recession. Unless the notoriously thrifty Japanese consumers can be impelled to action, the Bank may find it has no other choice but to spur the export sector via a cheaper Yen. The Guardian UK reports:

The economic malaise in the United States and Europe is affecting Japan and Tokyo must act to keep the economy afloat, Nakagawa said, a day after the country's central bank forecast that Japan would plunge into its deepest contraction in modern times.

US Treasury Spurns China

2009-02-02T09:01:00.000-08:00

During his confirmation hearings, Treasury Secretary Geithner indicated that the Obama administration consensus is that China is manipulating the Yuan. China predictably refuted the charges, and indicated that it will not be bullied into submission by the US when managing its currency. Thus began a heated back-and-forth between US and Chinese economic officials, with the forex markets caught awkwardly in the middle. Geithner apparently doesn't realize that his position also carries important diplomatic responsibilities, namely helping the US government to pay its bills by ensuring a steady demand for US Treasury securities abroad. Offending the most reliable foreign lender, accordingly, is probably not the best strategy to fulfilling this role. Moreover, Geithner's testimony couldn't have occurred at a worse time, given the planned expansion of US debt and the simultaneous leveling off of China's forex reserves. The implications for the Dollar couldn't be clearer. Forbes reports:

China has been a major purchaser of America's official debt in recent years. If it were to stop...Geithner would likely find his Treasury paper having to offer higher yields to draw investors, putting new pressure on the American budget.

The Forex Market

2009-02-02T09:00:00.000-08:00

For the last three decades Foreign Exchange market, - briefly Forex or FX, had integrated into the world's biggest financial market. The volume of daily transactions is about 1-3 trillion of US dollars. The trading instruments on this market are the currencies of different countries, so the fluctuation of currency's rates allows to gain a real profit.

Of course monetary assets of different countries exchanged since the term money appeared as well as an idea to obtain profit from currency's rates difference. Now it is not a new idea, but the transformation of foreign exchange market to the modern stage with an opportunity to conduct conversional operations of such volumes arose only after an introduction of floating rates regime by the state-members of IMF. Within this regime's framework the rate of one currency to another is defining only by the supply and demand on the market.

Presently Forex market is a global telecommunication network of banks and different financial organizations. It does not have any fixed trading place and time restrictions - the trade starts on Monday morning in New Zealand and closes on Friday evening in USA

The advantages of Forex market are:

Round-the-clock trading access: the ability to trade for 24 hours a day;

Liquidity: the market works with a huge money and gives the customers complete freedom to open or close their position of different volume;

Leverage: an ability to use leverage. It decreases requirements to the sum of the initial deposit (margin trade). So in case you deposit 10 000 USD into your account you'd have an opportunity to work with 1 000 000 USD (leverage 1:100);

Objectivity: no exterior regulated structures, so the currency's rate is establishing in accordance with current supply and demand on the market;

Globality: everyone can become a market participant irrespective to the living place, as trading requires only your skills and Internet access.

At present mostly all the operations on the market are conducting only to obtain profit. With the development of Internet and other means of communication this sector of the financial markets becomes more accessible and attractive for the investors of different levels.

Why Forex Trading is an Ideal Home Business

2009-02-02T08:52:00.000-08:00

What is Forex trading?

and more here..

The Euro Paradox

2009-01-28T23:18:00.000-08:00

The deepening of the credit crisis in the EU has triggered a wave of self-reflection, prompting those on the inside to ponder life without the Euro and those on the outside pondering life with the Euro. Their opinions couldn't be any more divergent. Countries like Italy, Spain, and Ireland, for example, have blamed the Euro for their economic woes, arguing that easy monetary policy and cheap credit were responsible for their real estate bubbles. Some commentators, accordingly, have argued that structural differences between these countries and the economic powerhouses of Germany and France are so large that it doesn't make sense for them to share a common currency. Meanwhile, Eastern European countries, most of which are still outside the Euro, are clamoring to join as sudden depreciations in their respective currencies have exposed them to massive economic instability. Business Week reports:

What happened, in effect, was rapid economic isolation. This began as investors moved money from more risky regional stock and currency markets into safer, often euro-denominated, assets, in what economists call a "flight to quality."

US Treasury Spurns China

2009-01-28T23:17:00.000-08:00

China has been a major purchaser of America's official debt in recent years. If it were to stop...Geithner would likely find his Treasury paper having to offer higher yields to draw investors, putting new pressure on the American budget.

Japan Moves Closer to Intervention

2009-01-28T23:16:00.000-08:00

The economic malaise in the United States and Europe is affecting Japan and Tokyo must act to keep the economy afloat, Nakagawa said, a day after the country's central bank forecast that Japan would plunge into its deepest contraction in modern times.

Ruble to Continue Falling

2009-01-25T06:34:00.000-08:00

The Russian Ruble is sliding faster and faster, having most recently reached a pace and level not seen since 1998, when Russia famously defaulted on its debt, and the currency lost more than half of its value in under a week. The Central Bank is keen to avoid a similar catastrophe this time around which is why it has diligently controlled the Ruble's descent, rather than allow the currency to reach an equilibrium in the spot market; such would likely result in a precipitous drop and perhaps a loss of confidence in the nation's banking system. Unfortunately, given the current m.o. of consistent but gradual devaluation, foreign investors are hesitant to own the Ruble, conscious of its inevitable decline. In fact, futures prices indicate that it is due to fall another 11%, with experts suggesting that this could be implemented over a time period as brief as one month, in order to return the economy to "normal" functioning as quickly as possible. Bloomberg News reports:

The falling ruble is causing banks, companies and individuals to hoard foreign currency. "All the attention of the people is focused on the forex market. Companies aren’t buying supplies, they’re investing their rubles in dollars instead because the play is too attractive."

Obama Could Step up Pressure on Yuan

2009-01-23T17:33:00.000-08:00

While much has been written about the forex implications of the Barack Obama Presidency, most of the commentary has focused on the Dollar, at the expense of reporting on other currencies. The Chinese Yuan, to name one such currency, could soon find its fate tied closely to Obama; it has been widely speculated that he will compensate for the reticence of his predecessor by formally labeling China a currency manipulator and pressuring its to allow the RMB to appreciate at a faster pace. Timothy Geithner, who is set to be confirmed as the next Treasury Secretary, has echoed similar sentiments. It is unclear whether such a sentiment would achieve the necessary legislative support required to levy punitive sanctions against China in order to force it into submission. Given the current global economic climate, however, it seems unlikely that China would comply. Marketwatch reports:

In fact, China itself has every reason to avoid both depreciation and appreciation of its currency. The latter could further weigh on already drooping exports, and the former could lead to capital outflows from the country, at a time it can least afford this.

Currency Options as Forex Strategy

2009-01-23T17:32:00.000-08:00

A steady decline in risk aversion has taken place over the last few months, such that investors once again appear willing to own riskier assets, especially in the developing world. If this continues, increasing demand for emerging market assets would probably be accompanied by currency appreciation. While there are several ways that investors could conceivably profit from this trend, there is an overlooked strategy: currency options. Specifically, some traders have begun to write "out of the money" put options- the equivalent of selling insurance to investors that wish to protect themselves from further declines in emerging market currencies. Those who specialize in currency options, however, have noticed declines in both implied volatility and the risk-reversal rate, which together suggest that such a possibility is now perceived as less likely. Regardless of whether you plan to employ such a strategy, it's worth paying attention to currency options prices, as they represent valuable snapshots of a given currency's perceived health. Bloomberg News reports:

Traders quote implied volatility, a measure of expected price swings, as part of setting options prices. Options are contracts granting the right to buy or sell a specific amount of a security in a given time span.

Who is Taking Your Trades?

2009-01-23T17:22:00.000-08:00

Who is taking your trades? Is it you or your trading method? Every day I see traders blindly following the signals given to them by their trading method. It is almost as if they're mindless robots just jumping in because their method says get in. They throw money into the market without even thinking, and it costs them big. More…

by Nick B in Art of the Chart

Dollar Bulls Fear Bond Market Explosion

2009-01-21T17:33:00.000-08:00

US government bond issuance in 2008-2009 will shatter all previous records. Fortunately, risk tolerance remains low as a result of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the credit crisis,and demand for US Treasuries remains proportionally high. However, analysts are beginning to wonder just how much more the market can support, as it appears that a bubble has begun to inflate. A slight recovery in risk appetite, and/or institutional investor concern that the bubble is on the verge of popping could trigger a mass exodus from US Treasuries. Moreover, foreign holders would likely rush to repatriate the proceeds in order to minimize currency conversion risk. The result would be a self-reinforcing downward spiral between the Dollar and bond markets. Reuters reports:

A tanking U.S. dollar on the back of a decline in the U.S. bond market would signify the global economy may not be recovering anytime soon, however, which could leave very few places to hide.

Emerging Market Currencies Continue to Slide

2009-01-21T17:31:00.000-08:00

Despite a late 2008 rally on the basis of improved risk tolerance, the prospects for emerging market currencies remain grim. The decline in commodity prices have deprived many such countries, namely Russia and Venezuela, of much-need export revenue. Moreover, the credit crisis and consequent abatement in inflation paved the way for massive interest rate cuts, which made investing in emerging market securities much less attractive. Current-account balances have turned from surplus to deficit in a matter of months, and governments have turned to foreign lenders to make up the difference. Unfortunately, confidence in such currencies is still quite low, forcing governments to issue debt denominated in USD, rather than local currency. Even despite this accommodation, investors remain hesitant. Bloomberg News reports:

Lower levels of foreign investment in these countries will make it harder for policy makers to cut current-account deficits, leaving their currencies “potential flashpoints” for losses.

NZD, AUD Down in 2009?

2009-01-13T17:06:00.001-08:00

While the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Kiwi technically started 2009 in the black, most analysts believe that both currencies will continue their record declines that began in 2008. All economic indicators continue to point downward, due to the adverse conditions created by the worldwide recession. The economies of Australia and New Zealand are extremely dependent on exports of raw materials and dairy products, respectively. Unfortunately, due to a contraction in demand and a decline in speculation, the prices for both types of commodities appears unlikely to erase even a fraction of the losses suffered last year. The death blow into the heart of both currencies will likely be delivered by their respective Central Banks, which are expected to make additional interest rate cuts. This will further erode the rate differential with the US/Japan, that previously signaled the currencies as attractive investments. Bloomberg News reports:

The average forecast is for the currency [AUD] to reach a low of 62 cents in the first quarter before recovering to 66 cents by the end of 2009. New Zealand’s dollar...will bottom at 52 U.S. cents in the second quarter and recover to 55 cents by the end of the year...

Reflections on the Euro

2009-01-13T17:02:00.001-08:00

The last two weeks have been eventful for the Euro: the common currency celebrated its 10th anniversary, Slovakia became the 16th member currency, and 2008 came to a volatile close. Analysts have taken advantage of this confluence of developments to publish a tide of opinion outlining its future. Supporters argue that the currency has forced member states to become fiscally responsible, as they can no longer print money to fund budget deficits. Moreover, the credit crisis proved the currency's raison d'etre; it has been an island of stability in a sea of volatility, with the currencies of some unlucky countries declining by 20% or more. Exchange rate volatility and interest rate divergence, which can cripple even robust economies in times of crisis, was nowhere to be found in the EU. As a result, Denmark, Iceland, and even the UK, could conceivably adopt the Euro in the not-too-distant future, especially since the latter's British Pound is closing in on parity.

Meanwhile, the Euro's detractors maintain that a one-size-fits-all economic and monetary policy is still not appropriate for a region as economically diverse as the EU. For example, while low interest rates may have been conducive to stable economic growth in Germany and France, they probably fomented real estate bubbles in Spain and Ireland, making the collapse even more painful in those locales than it had to be. Regardless, the consensus is that the Euro is here to stay, and will probably become an increasingly viable alternative to the Dollar. The Wall Street Journal reports:

The euro has climbed sharply again since Mr. Bernanke cut rates virtually to zero last month and signaled his new policy would be "quantitative easing" -- i.e., printing as much money as it takes to revive the U.S. economy.

Picking the "Least Worst" Currency

2009-01-13T16:59:00.000-08:00

Economic and monetary fundamentals throughout the world have become so paltry that one analyst notes tongue-and-cheek that investing in forex has become tantamount to identifying the "least worst" currencies. In virtually every country, all economic indicators are pointing downward, with the lone exceptions of unemployment rates and government spending. In other words, continuing declines in both production and consumptionherald a protracted worldwide recession. On the monetary side, Central Banks have embarked on a race to the bottom, with interest rates on pace to converge at 0% sometime in late 2009. Meanwhile, most governments have announced vast stimulus plans, which could prove highly inflationary if they can't find lenders willing to provide financing. In such an unfavorable climate, where then should savvy forex investors turn? The Financial Times reports:

Asian (ex-Japan) currencies, with relatively healthy banking systems, limited debt problems, positive demographics and undervalued currencies should be the natural harbour for fundamentally-driven investors. Commodity currencies, such as the Brazilian Real, Norwegian Krone, or Canadian dollar, offer characteristics akin to those in Asia and...[could also] participate in the rally.

UK, EU Rates Headed Downwards

2009-01-09T02:47:00.002-08:00

As investors gradually re-acquaint themselves with risk-taking, the interest rate story is once again dominating forex markets. For the last few weeks, this meant that investors were taking advantage of record-low US interest rates to fund carry trades in riskier currencies. Most recently, however, investors have begun to focus on the interest rate picture on the other side of the Atlantic. The Bank of UK just lowered rates to 1.5% and is "threatening" to match the Fed by dropping rates all the way to zero. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is probably on the cusp of a similar interest rate cut. As commodity prices have relaxed and the credit crunch has slowed the expansion of the money supply, the ECB is firmly justified in cutting rates, under the pretext of fulfilling its mandate, which is to guard against inflation. The upshot is that interest rate differentials, which have been fueling the Dollar's recent decline, may become less pronounced over the next year. Bloomberg News reports:

"There is increasingly more room for the ECB to be more aggressive on rate cuts. That will naturally put more pressure on the euro from an interest-rate differential perspective. We're seeing interest-rate differentials really come back into play in terms of a currency driver."

Pound Versus the Euro

2009-01-09T02:47:00.001-08:00

In recent years, the idea of parity seemed to pop up repeatedly in forex markets. First, the Canadian Dollar breached the mythical 1:1 barrier against the USD; then, it looked as though the Australian Dollar would follow suit. The most recent battle for parity is being waged across the Atlantic Ocean, between the British Pound and the Euro. Both economic and monetary circumstances favor the Euro, as the housing crisis pummeled the UK economy and the UK Central Bank subsequently embarked on a steep program of monetary easing. The Euro has probably also received a boost from the perception that the EU is one of the most stable economies and investing locales, outside of the US. In any event, investors tend to get carried away with psychological milestones and ignore economic fundamentals, which means the Euro could quickly achieve parity, before pulling back. The Wall Street Journal reports:

On Monday, one euro briefly bought almost 98 pence, a new record. That paves the way for parity “as early as this week,” wrote Ashraf Laidi, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.

Tobin Tax Could Restore Yen

2009-01-09T02:03:00.000-08:00

While the Yen's 30% rise in 2008 is no mystery (a result of the unwinding of carry trades), its performance nonetheless defies economic fundamentals. Exports have fallen and industrial production has collapsed, such that recession now appears inevitable. Japan is not alone in this regard, as a number of economies have suffered unnecessarily as a result of excessive volatility in currency markets. The solution could be the so-called "Tobin tax," which aims to limit forex speculation by levying a nominal tax on short-term currency trades. The proceeds from such a tax would be used to restore some equilibrium in forex markets by providing Central Banks with funds for direct intervention. While the tax itself has never been implemented, countries have previously taken to cooperating on forex matters for the sake of global macroeconomic stability. Seeking Alpha reports:

Exchange rates have to be within a certain range for all economies to prosper. The major economies have to work together to ensure this. If the Group of Five could work together to depreciate the "Super Dollar" in 1985, so the major nations today can and should work together to stem the surge of the super Yen.

Vietnam Dong Finally Devalued

2009-01-06T03:07:00.000-08:00

The Central Bank of Vietnam finally acceded to reality and devalued its currency, the Vietnam Dong, by 3%. Prior to the change, the Dong (as well as its neighbor, the Chinese Yuan, which has also experienced a decline) was one of the few relative winners of the credit crisis. Perhaps this was because the currency had already depreciated significantly in recent years (35% since 1994), as well as because it remains fixed to the Dollar and hence it is impossible for the markets to short it when it becomes overvalued. Vietnam continues to be plagued by double-digit inflation and a surging current account imbalance, which suggest that the currency will probably have to suffer an additional 'correction' before reaching a sustainable level. In fact, the black market rate remains well below the official rate, reports Bloomberg News:

The devaluation followed five interest-rate cuts by the central bank this quarter to help bolster the economy. Policy makers last lowered the benchmark rate on Dec. 19 by the most ever this year to 8.5 percent, from 10 percent.

Consensus: Fed is Devaluing Dollar

2009-01-06T03:06:00.001-08:00

The Fed is officially in panic mode, having lowered its benchmark federal funds rate close to zero and exhausted all of the tools in its monetary arsenal, with one notable exception: its printing press. In other words, the Fed is trying to jumpstart credit markets by acting as a market participant- investing funds to compensate for the reticence of private investors. Capital markets are naturally enthusiastic about this policy, since some of the new cash will probably be used to make leveraged bets on asset prices and erase some of the losses of the last year. Forex markets are palpably less excited that the Fed has essentially eroded much of the impetus for foreigners to hold their ash in the US, with paltry short-term yields and long-term gains that will likely be offset by inflation. Unless foreign Central Banks follow suit

and eliminate the current interest rate disparity with the US, it could be a bumpy 2009 for the Dollar. Forbes reports:

Citi Analyst Steven Wieting opined: "If you want yield, you'll have to take some risk." With borrowing rates suddenly close to zero and the Fed saying it will keep them at “exceptionally low levels ... for some time, you'll get as little of it from government-issued debt as possible."

Rand Benefits from Carry Trade

2009-01-06T03:04:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, the Forex Blog reported that the Yen could soon peak as a result of renewed interest in the carry trade. On the other side of this equation are emerging market currencies, most of which offer interest rates well above their industrialized counterparts. The spread between South Africa's benchmark interest rate and the rates of Switzerland, Japan, and the US, now exceeds 10%. As a result of near-zero rates in these countries, investors have once again taken to scouring the earth for yield. Apparently, government stimulus plans and monetary incentives have restored confidence in risk-taking. South Africa is especially poised to benefit, as it is one of the world's largest producers of gold, which recently resumed its upward trend. Bloomberg News reports:

“South African interest rates are very high relative to other markets and that yield differential is underpinning the rand at a time when trading is very thin.”

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

2009-01-02T07:55:00.000-08:00

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

Jimmy Young

Foreign Exchange Market

2009-01-02T07:54:00.000-08:00

The foreign exchange (currency or forex or FX) market exists wherever one currency is traded for another. It is by far the largest market in the world, in terms of cash value traded, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, multinational corporations, governments, and other financial markets and institutions. Retail traders (small speculators) are a small part of this market. They may only participate indirectly through brokers or banks and may be targets of forex scams.

Market size and liquidity

The foreign exchange market is unique because of:

its trading volume,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
the large number of, and variety of, traders in the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours - 24 hours a day (except on weekends).
the variety of factors that affect exchange rates,

Average daily international foreign exchange trading volume was $1.9 trillion in April 2004 according to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004

$600 billion spot
$1,300 billion in derivatives, ie
- $200 billion in outright forwards
- $1,000 billion in forex swaps
- $100 billion in FX options.

Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, but only accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe (5/5/06, p. 20).

**Top 10 Currency Traders**
Rank	Name	% of volume
1	Deutsche Bank	17.0
2	UBS	12.5
3	Citigroup	7.5
4	HSBC	6.4
5	Barclays	5.9
6	Merrill Lynch	5.7
7	J.P. Morgan Chase	5.3
8	Goldman Sachs	4.4
9	ABN AMRO	4.2
10	Morgan Stanley	3.9

The ten most active traders account for almost 73% of trading volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe, (2/9/06 p. 20). These large international banks continually provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) prices. The bid/ask spread is the difference between the price at which a bank or market maker will sell ("ask", or "offer") and the price at which a market-maker will buy ("bid") from a wholesale customer. This spread is minimal for actively traded pairs of currencies, usually only 1-3 pips. For example, the bid/ask quote of EUR/USD might be 1.2200/1.2203. Minimum trading size for most deals is usually $1,000,000.

These spreads might not apply to retail customers at banks, which will routinely mark up the difference to say 1.2100 / 1.2300 for transfers, or say 1.2000 / 1.2400 for banknotes or travelers' cheques. Spot prices at market makers vary, but on EUR/USD are usually no more than 5 pips wide (i.e. 0.0005). Competition has greatly increased with pip spreads shrinking on the majors to as little as 1 to 1.5 pips.

Trading characteristics

There is no single unified foreign exchange market. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currency instruments are traded. This implies that there is no such thing as a single dollar rate - but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs.

**Top 6 Most Traded Currencies**
Rank	Currency	ISO 4217 Code	Symbol
1	United States dollar	USD	$
2	Eurozone euro	EUR	€
3	Japanese yen	JPY	¥
4	British pound sterling	GBP	£
5-6	Swiss franc	CHF	-
5-6	Australian dollar	AUD	$

The main trading centers are in London, New York, and Tokyo, but banks throughout the world participate. As the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, then the US session, and then the Asian begin in their turns. Traders can react to news when it breaks, rather than waiting for the market to open.

There is little or no 'inside information' in the foreign exchange markets. Exchange rate fluctuations are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, budget and trade deficits or surpluses, and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers order flow. Trading legend Richard Dennis has accused central bankers of leaking information to hedge funds. [1]

Currencies are traded against one another. Each pair of currencies thus constitutes an individual product and is traditionally noted XXX/YYY, where YYY is the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currency into which the price of one unit of XXX currency is expressed. For instance, EUR/USD is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, as in 1 euro = 1.2045 dollar.

On the spot market, according to the BIS study, the most heavily traded products were:

EUR/USD - 28 %
USD/JPY - 17 %
GBP/USD (also called cable) - 14 %

and the US currency was involved in 89% of transactions, followed by the euro (37%), the yen (20%) and sterling (17%). (Note that volume percentages should add up to 200% - 100% for all the sellers, and 100% for all the buyers). Although trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, the foreign exchange market is thus still largely dollar-centered. For instance, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ will usually involve two trades: EUR/USD and USD/ZZZ. The only exception to this is EUR/JPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market.

Market participants

According to the BIS study Triennial Central Bank Survey 2004

53% of transactions were strictly interdealer (ie interbank);
33% involved a dealer (ie a bank) and a fund manager or some other non-bank financial institution;
and only 14% were between a dealer and a non-financial company.

Banks

The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account.

Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for small fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems, such as EBS, Reuters Dealing 3000 Matching (D2), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Bloomberg and TradeBook(R). The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.

Commercial Companies

An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.

Central Banks

National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves, to stabilize the market. Milton Friedman argued that the best stabilization strategy would be for central banks to buy when the exchange rate is too low, and to sell when the rate is too high - that is, to trade for a profit. Nevertheless, central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.

The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives, however. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank. Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992-93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in South East Asia.

Investment Management Firms

Investment Management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds, endowments etc.) use the Foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager with an international equity portfolio will need to buy and sell foreign currencies in the spot market in order to pay for purchases of foreign equities. Since the forex transactions are secondary to the actual investment decision, they are not seen as speculative or aimed at profit-maximisation.

Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay units, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. The number of this type of specialist is quite small, their large assets under management (AUM) can lead to large trades.

Hedge Funds

Hedge funds, such as George Soros's Quantum fund have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1990. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

Retail Forex Brokers

Retail forex brokers or market makers handle a minute fraction of the total volume of the foreign exchange market. According to CNN, one retail broker estimates retail volume at $25-50 billion daily, [2]which is about 2% of the whole market. CNN also quotes an official of the National Futures Association "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically."

All firms offering foreign exchange trading online are either market makers or facilitate the placing of trades with market makers.

In the retail forex industry market makers often have two separate trading desks- one that actually trades foreign exchange (which determines the firm's own net position in the market, serving as both a proprietary trading desk and a means of offsetting client trades on the interbank market) and one used for off-exchange trading with retail customers (called the "dealing desk" or "trading desk").

Many retail FX market makers claim to "offset" clients' trades on the interbank market (that is, with other larger market makers), e.g. after buying from the client, they sell to a bank. Nevertheless, the large majority of retail currency speculators are novices and who lose money [3], so that the market makers would be giving up large profits by offsetting. Offsetting does occur, but only when the market maker judges its clients' net position as being very risky.

The dealing desk operates much like the currency exchange counter at a bank. Interbank exchange rates, which are displayed at the dealing desk, are adjusted to incorporate spreads (so that the market maker will make a profit) before they are displayed to retail customers. Prices shown by the market maker do not neccesarily reflect interbank market rates. Arbitrage opportunities may exist, but retail market makers are efficient at removing arbitrageurs from their systems or limiting their trades.

A limited number of retail forex brokers offer consumers direct access to the interbank forex market. But most do not because of the limited number of clearing banks willing to process small orders. More importantly, the dealing desk model can be far more profitable, as a large portion of retail traders' losses are directly turned into market maker profits. While the income of a marketmaker that offsets trades or a broker that facilitates transactions is limited to transaction fees (commissions), dealing desk brokers can generate income in a variety of ways because they not only control the trading process, they also control pricing which they can skew at any time to maximize profits.

The rules of the game in trading FX are highly disadvantageous for retail speculators. Most retail speculators in FX lack trading experience and and capital (account minimums at some firms are as low as 250-500 USD). Large minimum position sizes, which on most retail platforms ranges from $10,000 to $100,000, force small traders to take imprudently large positions using extremely high leverage. Professional forex traders rarely use more than 10:1 leverage, yet many retail Forex firms default client accounts to 100:1 or even 200:1, without disclosing that this is highly unusual for currency traders. This drastically increases the risk of a margin call (which, if the speculator's trade is not offset, is pure profit for the market maker).

According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' " [4]

In the US, "it is unlawful to offer foreign currency futures and option contracts to retail customers unless the offeror is a regulated financial entity" according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [5]. Legitimate retail brokers serving traders in the U.S. are most often registered with the CFTC as "futures commission merchants" (FCMs) and are members of the National Futures Association (NFA). Potential clients can check the broker's FCM status at the NFA. Retail forex brokers are much less regulated than stock brokers and there is no protection similar to that from the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. The CFTC has noted an increase in forex scams [6].

Speculation

Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, many economists (e.g. Milton Friedman) argue that speculators perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do. Other economists (e.g. Joseph Stiglitz) however, may consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.

Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators.

Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries. While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not, according to this view. It is simply gambling, that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 150% per annum, and later to devalue the krona. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view [7]. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.

Gregory Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.

In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and forex speculators only made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions.

Emerging Markets Shed FX Reserves

2008-12-19T10:36:00.000-08:00

According to the most recent monthly data, the foreign exchange reserves of most developing countries are disappearing faster than they can be replenished. As a result of the global credit crisis, central banks have taken to deploying vast sums of capital towards the dual ends of stimulating their economies and propping up their currencies. The latter can be especially expensive, as countries like Ukraine and South Korea can attest. Both countries have spent 20% of their respective reserves to halt the decline of their currencies, and both abandoned such a strategy after accepting its futility. Ironically, there seems to be a direct correlation between dwindling forex reserves and a depreciating currency, as investor nervousness and currency devaluation reinforce each other. There is one bright spot in this quagmirem, however. The Guardian reports:

China says its reserves are continuing to rise, with the chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics telling Reuters they would exceed $2 trillion by the end of the year. Beijing [will] not resort to "panic selling" of reserves, instead maintaining a "prudent and responsible" stance.

Central Banks Still Prefer Dollars

2008-12-19T10:35:00.001-08:00

Since its introduction only ten years ago, the Euro has ascended at an incredible pace. Perhaps the best proxy for its respectability is its growing share (currently estimated at 27%) of Central Banks' foreign exchange reserves. Still, most analysts reckon that the Dollar will remain ascendant for the near-term. For one thing, the perception remains that the US is the safest place to invest, and in fact this attitude has been reinforced by the current economic downturn. In addition, there is very limited doubt that the Dollar will be around for a very long time, whereas there are many skeptics who invariably insist that the Euro is on the verge of breaking up. In short, as the global economy rebalances itself, reserve accumulation will slow generally, and diversification into the Euro will slow specifically. Marketwatch reports:

In view of the value already tied up in holdings of U.S. government paper, it would take a decisive -- and probably foolhardy -- shift for the world's largest reserve holders in Asia or Latin America to transfer significant holdings of present reserves out of the dollar and into the euro.

Emerging Markets Poised for Recovery?

2008-12-19T10:34:00.001-08:00

In a recent interview, three emerging market fund managers aired a common view: the asset class which comprises emerging markets represents a solid investment. Their reasoning is that the tremendous declines wrought in emerging market equities and currencies over the last six months were caused primarily by technical factors, rather than a substantive change in the long-term economic picture. In other words, this drop was effected by foreign investors that withdrew money en masse from emerging markets in order to meet fund redemptions and repay loans denominated in Dollars. At the same time, economic analysis, as well as common sense, dictate that an increasing portion of future global growth will be realized in the developing world. Many such countries have invested wisely in infrastructure and built up sizable foreign exchange reserves. Consequently, they are well-positioned to survive the current downturn intact. Accordingly, once investors "come to their senses" and recover their collective appetite for riskier investments, it probably won't be long before emerging market assets and currencies are bid up to pre-crisis levels. Forbes reports:

"Current valuation of emerging markets is the lowest it has been since I began investing in this asset class in 1988. Based on trailing 12-month earnings, emerging markets is trading at a price/earnings ratio of only 7.7x, and a price/book of 1.3x (with return on equity at 17%)," [observed one analyst].

US Dollar Forecast to Recover Against Euro, British Pound

2008-12-19T10:31:00.000-08:00

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Turn Against US Dollar on Shift in Forex Sentiment
USDJPY – US Dollar May Lose Further Against the Japanese Yen
USDCHF – Forex Sentiment Accurately Forecasts Massive Swiss Franc Rally
GBPUSD – British Pound Outlook Bearish Against Downtrodden US Dollar
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Unclear Against US Dollar

Forex Positioning in the Euro/US Dollar

EURUSD – Forecasts for the Euro/US Dollar currency pair have now shifted to the downside, as a flip in retail forex positioning signals that the recent Euro/US Dollar uptrend may reverse. Last week we cited extremely net-short “crowd” positioning as a clear sign that the Euro would rally, but the forex crowd has now capitulated and the majority of traders are now long the EUR/USD. Indeed, the SSI ratio currently stands at 1.18 as nearly 54 percent of traders are long the pair. Yesterday only 40 percent of traders were long, and these reversals most often occur at turns in price. As such, our SSI-based forex trading signals recently went short the Euro/US Dollar via a sentiment-based trading strategy.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Japanese Yen

USDJPY – The forex trading crowd continues to buy into US Dollar/Japanese Yen declines, and such stubbornness suggests that the pair may yet fall further. That said, positioning has become far less extreme through recent trading. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are long. This stands in contrast with a ratio of 2.11 at this point last week, and the slow capitulation from the forex trading crowd tells us that we are zeroing in on a bottom. Through the very short term we may expect the US Dollar to continue falling against the Japanese Yen, but a stronger shift in sentiment would signal that a turn is likely. As it stands, our USD/JPY trading strategies are currently flat after aggressively selling through previous price action.

Forex Positioning in the British Pound/US Dollar

GBPUSD –Forex positioning in the British Pound/US Dollar pair has been inconsistent through recent trading, but a recent increase in GBP/USD-long positions supports the case for near-term British Pound weakness against the US Dollar. Indeed, the ratio of long to short positions in the GBP/USD currently stands at 1.48, as nearly 60 percent of traders are currently long. Given that our Speculative Sentiment Index is most often contrarian in nature, the forex crowd’s long bias gives us reason to look for a downturn in the GBP/USD through the foreseeable future. In fact, two of our forex trading strategies have very recently gone short the British Pound against the US Dollar.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Swiss Franc

USDCHF – Recent US Dollar/Swiss Franc price action is a testament to the effectiveness of Speculative Sentiment Index-based currency forecasts. Forex trading crowds had remained heavily net-short the USD/CHF since July, and the pair went on to mount an impressive multi-month rally. Most recently, that same crowd capitulated and actually went net-long the USD/CHF near the 1.2000 mark. The US Dollar subsequently went on to post its biggest monthly loss against the Swiss Franc in history—incredible by any standards. Looking to very short-term trading, the crowd is currently net-short the pair, with short positions outnumbering longs by 1.08 to 1. Such a flip gives us reason to look for a reversal, but a sharp drop in open interest gives us little conviction in our forecast. Our forex trading signals previously went short the USD/CHF for sizeable profits, but the strategies now hold a weaker bias.

Forex Positioning in the US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

USDCAD – The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 50.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% weaker than yesterday and 56.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses. Tell us and other traders what you think in our forex forum.

How do we interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

FxPro Advertising Campaign

2008-12-13T10:16:00.000-08:00

FxPro announces its latest advertising campaigns and has joined forces with several major players in the financial news sector. Brand awareness is a key factor in advertising, especially for a global player such as FxPro who plan on reaching out to new markets in the very near future. The main campaigns proudly undertaken so far are in conjunction with Bloomberg, the gatekeepers of the financial news industry, CNBC who reach 340 million homes on a daily basis and Euronews, providers of reports on all financial and current affairs globally, all aiding us to raise the company profile on a global level and promoting brand awareness worldwide. FxPro is an online trading and investment specialist, enabling clients to trade Forex, Contracts For Difference CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Indexes and other tradeable instruments, as well as providing portfolio management via the FxPro Metatrader 4 Trading Platform, the leading online trading platform. FxPro has more than 150 Partnerships worldwide and boasts a huge client base in over 120 countries. FxPro's headquarters are in Cyprus with offices in France and Russia and plans to move to further key markets in the very near future.

Investors Uncertain about RMB

2008-12-12T22:26:00.000-08:00

Only a few weeks ago, investors had made significant bets that China would reverse its official policy of RMB appreciation. Futures prices indicated that investors collectively expected the currency to depreciate over 7% against the Dollar over the next year, as part of a comprehensive Chinese policy to boost the faltering economy. Since then, however, the RMB recorded its biggest one-day rise since the currency peg was abandoned three years ago, and investors subsequently scaled back their bets.

While it's unclear what caused the sudden change in sentiment, there are a few factors which probably contributed. First is Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's recent visit to China, in which he encouraged China to continue to permit the the Yuan to appreciate. In addition, high-ranking Chinese economic policy-makers have indicated that market forces will increasingly determine the valuation of the Yuan. Finally, there is the recent election of Barack Obama, a long-standing critic of what he believes to be the undervalued RMB. Bloomberg News reports:

"Any attempt to devalue the currency is likely to be met with considerable opposition from China’s trading partners." The new U.S. administration under President-elect Barack Obama "will be less tolerant of the 'crawling peg' appreciation policy," said one analyst.

Emerging Markets Shed FX Reserves

2008-12-10T01:17:00.001-08:00

China says its reserves are continuing to rise, with the chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics telling Reuters they would exceed $2 trillion by the end of the year. Beijing [will] not resort to "panic selling" of reserves, instead maintaining a "prudent and responsible" stance.

AUD Continues to Dive

2008-12-10T01:13:00.000-08:00

On the basis of technical factors, the Australian Dollar had halted its precipitous decline against most major currencies. As a result of an unbelievable 100 basis point interest rate cut, however, the currency has resumed its fall. That the rally was short-lived is not a mystery. The yield advantage enjoyed by Australia over the last few years has almost completely evaporated. Combined with lackluster Australian equity performance and tanking commodity prices, foreign investors have little reason to maintain capital in Australian holdings. On the plus side, the rate cut showed investors how serious Australian economic policy-makers are in dealing with the credit crisis. Unfortunately, diligence doesn't always translate into efficacy.

Japan Stays out of Forex

2008-12-08T09:41:00.001-08:00

Officially, Japan has not intervened in forex markets since 2004, when it spent the equivalent of $300 Billion to hold down the value of the Yen. That impressive streak could soon come to and end, however, as the Yen continues to surge on the unwinding of the carry trade. The performance of the Yen- which recently touched a 13-year high- is particularly impressive since it comes at a time when virtually every other currency has collapsed relative to the US Dollar. Now, analysts have once again taken to pouring over monthly data on Japan's Central Banking activities, in order to confirm that it is keeping its finger off of the trigger. Given that the Yen's appreciation has already prompted several high-level meetings among global economic and political leaders, however, it is probably only a matter of time before Japan ends its multi-year abstinence from forex. Reuters reports:

Japanese Finance Minister said earlier this month that the authorities must be ready to deal with big swings in markets as they are undesirable. His comments pushed the yen lower against the dollar as market players were wary of intervention.

Will China Fund US Deficit?

2008-12-08T09:40:00.000-08:00

When all is said and done, the US government will have injected trillions of dollars into the economy, in the form of bailouts, guarantees, economic stimuli, etc. Whether it will have the desired effect is debatable. The question that no one seems to be asking is, "How is the government going to finance such exorbitant spending?" It appears that China, which has become of of the largest holders of US government debt, will continue to participate- not necessarily because it wants to, but because it doesn't have a choice. China's economy remains heavily reliant on the export sector to drive growth. Because its exchange rate regime does notpermit the RMB to fluctuate freely, the proceeds from the consequent trade surplus must be invested abroad, rather than domestically. For both symbolic and economic reasons, it seems the bulk of the surplus will continue to be invested in the US, probably in safer assets like US Treasury Securities. This is certainly good news for deficit hawks and Dollar bulls. The Wall Street Journal reports:

Even if China wanted to invest outside the U.S., it couldn't. If China recycled its foreign currency into, for instance, the European Union or Japan, it would effectively force those trading partners to run large trade deficits with China, which neither can absorb.

Russian Ruble Declines with Price of Oil

2008-12-08T09:39:00.000-08:00

Having already fallen 12% in 2008, the Russian Ruble is well on is way to fulfilling analysts' predictions that it will fall 30% before stabilizing against the US Dollar. While the credit crisis has not been kind to Russia, the Ruble is suffering more from a collapse in the price of oil, which recently slipped below $50 a barrel. For reference, the government needs the price of oil to stay above $70 in order to balance its budget. Now, the country's current account surplus is eroding almost as quickly as its foreign exchange reserves, which it is deploying in a vain effort to forestall the decline in the Ruble. The response of the Central Bank has been to widen the band within which the currency is permitted to fluctuate; in practice, this is tantamount to defeat, and is sure to trigger a further decline. Bloomberg News reports:

"The central bank is letting it fall because of oil, reserves depletion, all of that," said an emerging-markets currency strategist. "We can probably expect to see more of this."

Could the RMB Fall?

2008-12-03T06:42:00.000-08:00

Since China revalued the Yuan in July 2005, it was considered a foregone conclusion that the currency would continue appreciating at a steady clip. The global credit crisis, generally, and the Chinese economic downturn, specifically, has turned that assumption on its head. Last week, the RMB declined by the biggest margin since the revaluation, prompting speculation that China will adopt a currency policy diametrically opposed to that which it has pursued over the last few years. The move also coincided with the annual China-US trade summit, attended by none other than Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. The new consensus among currency traders (proxied by futures contracts) is that the Yuan will depreciate slightly over the next two years, as China moves to provide a boost to its export sector. Given that the currencies of most of China's Asian neighbors have fallen by double digits over the last year, the Yuan may have to fall sharply in order to maintain competitiveness. The Wall Street Journal reports:

the Chinese currency hasn't experienced a large devaluation in at least a decade. Such a move would go against the realities of geopolitics and against signals that Beijing is more focused on boosting domestic consumption than on stimulating exports.

Indonesian Rupiah Faces Collapse

2008-12-03T06:40:00.000-08:00

The economic situation in Indonesia is similiar to that of several other emerging market economies, characterized by falling export revenue, shrinking government coffers, and capital flight. The consequent decline in the Indonesia Rupiah has almost become self-fulfilling. In other words, as skittish investors rush to move their capital out of Indonesia for fear of complete collapse, they are simultaneously making such a collapse more likely. Indonesian policy-makers are conscious of this tendency of nervousness to feed back into itself, and are delicately trying to avoid shocking the markets. On the one hand, they want to limit the decline of the Rupiah. On the other hand, they don't want to take actions that will make investors nervous, even if it means making it more difficult for them to short the currency. The International Herald Tribune reports:

Last week, Indonesia changed its currency rules to make it more difficult to buy foreign exchange. The measures, mostly affecting Indonesians rather than foreigners, would make speculative bets against rupiah depreciation more difficult.

Read More: Indonesia undergoing currency crisis

US to Continue to Pressure China Over RMB

2008-11-21T22:34:00.001-08:00

After rising nearly 20% over the last three years, the RMB has virtually stopped appreciating against the US Dollar, perhaps as a result of the credit crisis. At the same time, the US exports sector- previously one of the few bright spots of the sagging economy- has begun to stall. US Politicians have taken note, and are now renewing their efforts to persuade China to allow its currency to rise further. They are also agitated about China's perpetually growing forex reserves (currently estimated at $2 Trillion), which are increasingly being deployed in sensitive areas. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is growing at the slowest pace in years, and the Chinese government is resorting to desperate measures to prop it up. In short, allowing the RMB to rise, while placating US policymakers, is tantamount to economic suicide, and hence unlikely.

While other sovereign wealth funds have existed for nearly 50 years without controversy, "China appears far less likely than other nations to manage its sovereign wealth funds without regard to political influence that it can gain by offering such sizable investments."

Get Started Investing in Forex: 37 Tutorials, Tools & Resources

2008-11-21T22:29:00.000-08:00

Even if you're an active trader in stocks, you may not be prepared to invest in forex, or the foreign exchange market. Forex trades 24 hours a day from 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday until 4:00 p.m. ET Friday, so you won't hear those opening or closing bells. And, there's no central market like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq. Instead, trade is conducted between participants through electronic communication networks (ECNs) and phone networks in various markets around the world. So, when you hear that the US dollar closed at a certain rate, it simply means that was the rate at market close in New York. But currency continues to be traded around the world long after New York's close.

But, like securities, traders can go long or short and they can make a profit or lose money. As with stocks, it's best to conduct some research into how the forex market works before you begin to trade. After you understand how the forex market works, you can begin to build a trading strategy.

The following list contains 37 tutorials, tools, and resources that will help you get started with investments in forex. If you've traded on any stock exchange in the past, some of these tools might feel or appear familiar, but they may have a new twist. The resources listed below were chosen for their clarity and simplicity as well as for their reputation.

Getting Started

The following information is for the forex beginner, but even intermediate-level forex traders might pick up a tip or two from these sites:

Baby Pips: A pip is the smallest unit of price for any foreign currency, so "baby pips" is a bit redundant. But you won't find any redunancy on this site. Skip the news on the front page for now and go straight to the School of Pipsology that holds a complete course for beginners. If you walk through all the lessons contained on this site, you'll have a solid basic forex education under your belt.
Forex Glossary: Although the previous tutorial might help you to understand some forex terms, this glossary is a great tool to have on hand for future reference. You'll see some familiar terms here, like "selling short" and "limit order," and you'll learn that they mean the same as they do when you use them for trading securities. But, you'll also find new terms like "big figure" and "two-way price," terms that will set you apart as a forex trader.
Investopedia: This online financial encyclopedia contains an extensive 10-part article on forex investing, from an introduction to a recap that covers everything from benefits and risks to technical analysis. If you can't get enough of Investopedia's information, head to their Forex index, where you can find a list of articles and an opportunity to download their free e-Book entitled, "High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market."
National Futures Association(NFA): Now that you have a basic understanding about forex markets, visit the NFA to learn how to build a sound forex strategy. The NFA is "the premier independent provider of efficient and innovative regulatory programs that safeguard the integrity of the derivatives markets," which basically means that this organization regulates any market that depends upon future cash flows. The "investor information" section contains materials about how to find a broker and basic lessons in forex trading. Plus, they publish forex warnings, news, and they offer a place for investor disputes and complaints.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission(CFTC): The CFTC operates along the same lines as the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission), except this government organization focuses on protecting market users and the public from fraud in the futures and option markets. So keep this site handy to stay on top of any forex scams through their Consumer Advisory on Forex Fraud. You can learn quickly what to avoid in your learning curve through a detailed forex advisory that offers information about other resources as well.
Martket Traders Insitute (MTI): You don't need to spend a lot of money to train in forex markets. Even MTI offers free resources such as videos and lesson plans that will help you get off the ground. If you like what you hear and see, you can invest in materials for the advanced trader down the road.

Learn about Currency

If you're going to trade something, you better know what it is you're trading. These currency sites will help you get up to speed on foreign currency exchange and markets.

Exchange Rate: Skip the top link box, as those links will take you to FXCM (Forex Capital Markets — see #13 and #33). Instead, try out the "hot" and "currency info" links that provide information about everything you'd want to know about worldwide currencies for 170 countries. Includes calculators, fun facts, serious facts, and more.
Oanda: With a free registration you can access customizable currency tools, including calculators and foreign exchange data. If you don't register you can still access currency exchange tools that are great items for instant information, especially for travelers, let alone forex investors. The Traveler's Cheat Sheet is indispensable for money-conscious globetrotters.
GoCurrency: This site offers a powerful and accurate currency converter, but don't stop there. Learn about currencies by country, currency forecasts, and gather insights on foreign investments.
The Euro: Confused about the Euro? Over 13 European Union countries now use the Euro, and this Web site, brought to you by the European Commission, will teach you everything you want to know about this currency. But the Euro represents just one currency among hundreds. Which leads me to my next point...
List of Currencies: This is an extensive list provided by Wikipedia that covers everything from ancient coinage to the current Yen. As with most Wikipedia lists, you might run across a link or two that doesn't contain information. But, you can use that information to search elsewhere if needed.

Get the News

Once you've learned the basics, the next best thing you can do before you begin to trade is to read up on forex information via traditional financial news sites and blogs. Use the tutorials listed above during this process so that you can grasp the language and learn the strategies involved in any reporting. Take advantage of forums or chats offered by these resources to ask questions:

Action Forex: This site offers an easy-to-read layout that includes news, insights, fundamentals reports, calculators, and tons of other forex resources.
Daily FX: An easy-on-the-eyes news source that offers a calendar, charts, and a forum. Sponsored by FXCM, this site offers a free weekly trading lesson and free quarterly outlook reports. You must be an FXCM client to access the market commentary, but the other "free" news offers a great resource for learning and for staying on top of forex news.
Forex Reader: The Forex Reader is a popular blog that offers updates on financial headlines relegated by currency. It also serves as a resource for individuals seeking a Houston trucking accident attorney along with other legal and financial information.
Forex News: Like most of the sites listed here, Forex News offers more than news. Check out their forums, their technical news, and their educational and research materials while you're there. Register for free to take full advantage of the site's resources, including a chat feature.
FXStreet: Global Forex Trading (GFX) sponsors this forex news site. Use the forums, chats, strategies, techniques, and trading tools to get a feel for forex. Additionally, several bloggers share their insights, including Wayne McDonell's FX Boot Camp Training Videos (visit his FX Bootcamp site).
Profiting with Forex Blog: You might discover that this newsworthy blog is part of the network, "Profiting with Forex." The blog is interesting, but the backend reports, podcasts, and commentary at the "Profiting" site might appeal to you more.
The Forex Project: Lessons learned first-hand from a forex trader. This site has an unbelievably long list of topics, along with news about the blogger's personal trading experiences, calculators, charts, news, and a perspective on forex psychology.

Participate in Forums

Speaking of forums, here are a few specific resources where you can tap into information from around the world that may help to answer your questions about forex trading and markets. Be aware that individuals who want to sell their ideas visit these forums, just like any other forums. But, you'll find a wealth of valid information here as well.

MoneyTec: With over 33,000 members, this traders' forum offers a format to discuss trading ideas, share, learn, and build new trading techniques and strategies.
Global View Forums: Another free forum that's been around since 1996. This one focuses solely on forex. You must register to participate.
Forex Factory Forum: You'll find a Forex Beginner Q&A section as well as topics that focus on specific strategies and techniques. Free to register.

Learn Strategies

You'll discover that some forex traders use Fibonacci (Fib) methods, and that others rely on current financial news to divine futures. There are as many strategies as personalities in the forex market, but — like the stock market — they rely either on fundamental or technical analysis. The following contains a mix of the two:

Fibonacci Lesson: Don't know much 'bout arithmetic, Fibonacci numbers, or the Golden Section? This tutorial, offered by Dr Ron Knott from the Mathematics Department of the University of Surrey, UK will provide results. Simple to use, easy to understand, and filled with illustrations to help you learn why some numbers are so important to nature. Interstingly, these numbers are also of vast interest to many forex investors.
Fibonacci Forex Indicators: Forex Planet will begin to show you how to apply Fibs to forex in this easy-to-understand lesson. But, the lesson is short, so you might try the next resource as well:
Mini-Lesson on Fibonnaci: This lesson also applies to forex, and it offers a short tutorial on applications along with a downloadable Fib calculator.
Intro to Japanese Candlestick Charting: Altavest provides a short and succinct introduction to Japanese candlestick charting, another method that forex traders use to graph charts.
Candlestick Patterns: If you like the Japanese candlestick methodology, this site will thrill you. Extensive patterns are illustrated graphically from basic to single patterns and reversal to continuation formations. This entire site offers some great information on techniques and strategies beyond the candlestick information, so take some time to look around while you're here. Basically, this site has it all as far as technical analysis goes.
Fundamentals of Forex: Forex TV brings you the lowdown on what type of news would affect forex from a fundamental standpoint. You can use the information on this list to conduct further research, but I'll bring a few of those topics to you now...
Consumer Price Index (CPI): The US Department of Labor offers a ton of information just on this page alone through their links. But, the CPI is often influenced by many other factors. If you're a fundamentalist, you might want to tag this next link for further research as well...
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA): Don't play around with someone else's opinions. Get the straight stuff from the US Department of Commerce like the pros. Everyone from the White House staff to US Trade Commission employees to trade policy officials who want to negotiate international trade agreements uses the measurements contained on the BEA Web site. Why should you be left out of this information resource?

Use Charts

Charts offer visual validation for technical strategies, but they also reflect fundamental behaviors in the market. Even if you're a seasoned securities trader, you might want to learn more about the psychology behind forex trading. If you can read all sorts of charts inside and out, you'll have the forex advantage.

The Law of Charts: Joe Ross offers advice for traders across the board, but the information contained in his "Law of Charts" offer speaks to forex as well as any other trading strategy. He identifies chart patterns that result from human behaviors and points to entry and exit targets on those charts. You can take advantage of Ross's other tools as well, including the forum.
Forex Charting 101: A brief and basic overview of forex charts from Pip Trader. You'll discover that the charts are very similar to those that you might use for securities trading. But, some of the charts may seem more complicated if you're not a seasoned trader.
Free Forex Charts: There's no reason for me to push you into using a specific chart. Instead, I'll point you to a short list of free forex charts that you can use for practice. When you're ready to begin trading, take a look at their lists of premium and system trading charts for professional use. The lists contain ratings and reviews, visuals, features, and tips and tricks for individual charts.
FXCM: Although I don't advocate specific brokers in this article, when you visit brokerage sites make sure that you take advantage of any free information offered by those businesses. In this instance, Forex Capital Markets offers tons of information about forex trading, and you can sign up for a risk-free 30-day practice account to get your feet wet. Forex.com and several other brokerage sites also offer this free account service. Be aware that when you sign up for these services that you'll be added to a mailing list. You can opt out of these lists, but read any other pertinent information to make sure that you're not obligated to purchase anything from any brokerage that you use for services such as this one.

Other tools

The tools listed below are "sidebars" to all the information listed above. I'll cut you loose on the last two sites, as they contain just about every site you'd might want to access for more forex information:

Live Forex Rates: You might recognize the GFT logo behind the rates, but don't let that distract you from the constantly changing figures. If you're addicted to live feeds, you'll be mesmerized by the constantly changing currency rates on this chart.
A Free Book about Forex: This book is truly free, as you don't need to register to access the PDF file. A forex trader offers information about all the mistakes he made as he learned how to develop his own forex strategy. Short and easy to read, this little book will bring some insights into how to avoid some pitfalls in the forex markets.
Top 100 Forex Sites: Although these sites are rated by popularity and, therefore, subject to rating scams, you can learn much from the sites that are listed simply from the variety of information that's offered here. Many sites are brokerage firms, but as I mentioned previously you can find free information on many of these sites such as news, calculators, techniques, and more.
Earn Forex: A link exchange/directory for other forex sites. Unlike the "Top 100" site listed previously, Earn Forex doesn't rate their links. But, you will also find much different information here than at the previous site. Additionally, the links are sorted by categories, which makes it easier to find what you need. In addition, you'll find other tools here like calculators, articles, and a forex FAQ and glossary.

There are many other sites that I could list for your forex training, but my next suggestion is to head to your local library and read some books about forex trading. If you find an author or two who are to your liking, begin to study their techniques and strategies both through their books and on the Internet. If you share your information and questions on forums, you might find a mentor who will help you learn how to strategize and to use charts and fundamentals to your advantage as well.

Forex trading isn't learned overnight; so don't feel inadequate if you can't grasp the fine points immediately. You can't lose by learning more about how world economies work. The information that you gather in your search for forex training will make you a better trader no matter which markets you prefer to use.

British Pound Under Pressure

2008-11-20T07:39:00.003-08:00

The British Pound has already fallen 25% against the Dollar, since the credit crisis kicked off earlier this year. On a technical basis, therefore, it would seem that the Pound is due for a rally. From the standpoint of economic fundamentals however, the picture is quite bleak. While the Bank of England's recent 150 basis point interest rate cut could help restore the UK economy to solid footing, it sent a massive shock to investors. UK interest rates now stand at a 50-year low, and futures prices suggest that the benchmark rate will fall another 1% in the next 12 months. In addition, the Bank of England has not ruled out ruling interest rates all the way to zero. As unlikely as this scenario may be, investors are now fully aware of the scope of Britain's economic troubles. The next couple weeks could be make-or-break for the Pound, as a series of economic data releases, as well as the minutes from the latest BOE meeting, will help investors craft a more accurate forecast. Daily FX reports:

Housing, industrial trends, consumer spending and public borrowing readings...provide additional confirmation that this evolving recession will be far worse than the slump of 1992.

Euro: To Praise or Condemn?

2008-11-20T07:39:00.001-08:00

In light of the credit crisis, commentators on the Euro have taken to one of two extremes; either they believe the Euro is doomed, or they argue that the Euro represents the key to EU economic salvation. The naysayers point to recent trends in financial markets such as the widening spread between German and Italian bond yields. They further argue that a common monetary policy exacerbated the credit crisis by fomenting real estate booms in overheated economies, namely Ireland and Spain. Supporters, on the other hand, need to look no further than the complete economic collapse in Iceland to understand the advantages of the Euro. Moreover, some of the more fragile EU members (Luxembourg, Belgium) would have witnessed runs on their currencies, if not for their participation in the common currency. In the end, the Euro probably represents a viable investment alternative to the Dollar and it brings the benefit of relative stability to its members. While its supporters are prone to overstating its benefits, it's not likely at risk of crumbling in the next few years. The Economist reports:

The euro's defenders are convinced that the currency will still be there at the end of the crisis. That is a reasonable bet. But public support for the euro may still be painfully tested as economies deteriorate.

Russia to Devalue Ruble

2008-11-20T07:37:00.000-08:00

Russia is currently facing its worst currency crisis since 1998, when it defaulted on its debt and the Ruble plunged 71% against the Dollar. This time around, Russia is being attacked on two fronts: the sell-off in emerging markets and the collapse in the price of oil. Both trends occurred suddenly and with such force that the economy swung from current account surplus to deficit in a matter of months. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Russia has spent nearly 1/5 of its $500 Billion in forex reserves to slow the proportional decline in its currency. If the price of oil and the stock market continue to decline in tandem, the Central Bank will no doubt find it increasingly difficult to defend the currency, and a massive devaluation would inevitably follow. The Central Bank has already hiked rates; it is running out of options. Bloomberg News reports:

Today's central bank decision will prompt "further runs on deposits," wrote [one group of] analysts in a research note today. "Flight from rubles now is the key factor to watch."

All Signs Point to Down

2008-11-12T07:06:00.001-08:00

Regardless of your preference, all economic indicators seem to be heading in the same direction: down. Home sales and home starts, as well as home prices, are way down and projected to fall further. Consumer spending is declining by double-digits (in annualized percentage terms), which is no surprise considering consumer sentiment recently touched an all-time low. The national unemployment rate and unemployment insurance claims are rising nearly every month and week, respectively. Factory production is falling, and inventories are rising. Stock market capitalization is down across the world, especially in export-driven markets like Japan and Korea. The US economy as a whole contracted in the last quarter. The distinct lack of nuance in the economic picture has led most economists to project that the current recession (although not officially a recession) will be the worst in decades. The Wall Street Journal reports:

The current downturn is shaping up to be worse than the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001 and the prolonged downturn that ended in 1982. Banks are cutting back on lending, consumers are spending less, companies are shedding jobs amid sinking profits, and the housing bust that triggered the slide persists.

How to Choose a Forex Broker

2008-11-12T07:05:00.002-08:00

Today, I'm going to take a break from covering the credit crisis in order to cover an important logistical topic: how should one go about choosing a forex broker? There are dozens (if not hundreds) of retail forex brokers, a fact which can be overwhelming to those considering dabbling in forex for the first time. The first step is to assess the quality of the broker, itself. Where is it registered? Those based in offshore tax havens should be treated with some degree of skepticism, as they are subject to lax, if any, regulation. It could be difficult to withdraw funds from an account held with such a broker. Along the same lines, what is the broker's reputation? Typically, the most "visible" brokers will also offer the best customer service, as much of their business is generated through word-of-mouth. Next, you should examine the product(s)? What kind of trading platform will you have access to? Will you have access to research and advanced (technical) analysis tools? What is the average execution time? The final considerations are financial. In other words, what is the spread and what are the terms of financial leverage. At the same time, you should be careful not to allow this latest aspect to weigh too strongly on your selection, reports The American Chronicle:

It's far too easy to be attracted to brokers that offer up to say 1:400 leverage, and therefore allow you to take out very large positions with a small margin, but this is a very dangerous game and it's all too easy to over-leverage yourself and wipe out your account completely.

Will Obama Embrace Strong Dollar Policy?

2008-11-12T07:05:00.001-08:00

While the Bush Administration nominally embraced a strong Dollar policy, the currency's 20% decline over the last eight years suggests it was actually a low priority. The Obama administration, in contrast, is much more likely to maintain such a policy, a circumstance which could help the Dollar to continue its year-long rally. Obama will assume the office of the presidency at a time when US finances are looking particularly tenuous, with a projected 2009 budget deficit of $1 Trillion. In order to finance the government bailout, as well as an additional economic stimulus plan and a host of other initiatives (let's not forget the two ongoing wars), Obama will need to spearhead an effort to attract more foreign capital. For this to happen, the Dollar's status as the world's reserve currency must be cemented and confidence in the Greenback must be restored. Ironically, Obama may receive a boost in this aspect from the credit crisis. The Guardian reports:

The dollar [rally] is likely to persist as market participants looked to snap up more U.S. assets after the decisive election of a candidate that promised to bring sweeping changes to a country mired in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

UK Rate Cut Backfires

2008-11-12T07:00:00.000-08:00

Last week, the Bank of England acquieced to the seriousness of the credit crisis by cutting its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points- the largest margin in nearly two decades. While the move was intended to restore confidence in the UK economy and its financial markets, the opposite result obtained. In other words, investors interpreted the rate cut as an indication that the UK economic situation is even more precarious than was initially feared. In fact, this bearish sentiment is born out by economic data, which shows falling home prices and rising unemployment. Since peaking against the Dollar late last year, the British Pound has since declined 25%.

Overnight Rally

2008-11-08T08:27:00.001-08:00

I like to imagine I am in tune with the markets. My trading record may not agree with this minor flight of fancy, but nonetheless, it's much more rewarding to have a feeling of control.

This morning, waking up much earlier than normal, I thought I'd take a look at the section of the Forex world that I follow... the AUDJPY.

Aha, not only did we have a nice rally -- an echo of the DOW futures up by several hundred, but according to my chart it was the perfect time to take a nip. It looks like we're about to push above 58.70 and start another leg of upward movement.

It looks that way to me. Be warned, mileage may vary.

UPDATE: We have the upward break so now the question is... will we break 59.50?

UPDATE: We're around 50.20 right now... it looks like a test of ~59.50 is imminent.

UPDATE: We've just had a quick push up to ~59.50 and now it's slightly above...

UPDATE: I'm taking my profit... it's time to get ready for work and it looks like it's time for a down leg.

Don't expect too much from G20 summit - Canada

2008-11-08T08:25:00.000-08:00

OTTAWA, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Expectations should be modest when it comes to the results of a major international summit next week on the global financial crisis, a senior aide to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Friday.

The Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations is due to meet in Washington on Nov. 14 and 15 for talks on the turmoil and to discuss possible solutions.

(Reporting by Randall Palmer, writing by David Ljunggren; Editing by Peter Galloway) Keywords: FINANCIAL/CANADA SUMMIT

UPDATE 1-UK lenders pass on UK 1.5 pct rate cut

2008-11-08T08:19:00.000-08:00

LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Five major British lenders passed on the Bank of England's 1.5 percentage point rate cut to their variable rate mortgage customers on Friday after the government urged them to keep lending to help stave off a recession.

HBOS, the UK's biggest mortgage lender, building society Nationwide, state-owned Northern Rock, Royal Bank of Scotland, owner of NatWest, and Bradford & Bingley all passed on the rate cut in full.

They joined Lloyds TSB and Abbey, owned by Spain's Santander, who cut their standard variable rates on Thursday.

Bank chiefs were called to a meeting earlier on Friday with UK Chancellor Alistair Darling, where he urged them to pass on the base rate reductions to help get the economy moving again.

There was broad agreement at the meeting to pass on the cuts to households and small businesses, a person at one of the banks told Reuters.

Just two major British banks -- HSBC and Barclays -- have yet to follow suit. They said they were still reviewing the BoE's rate decision on Friday.

Neither HSBC nor Barclays is taking cash from the government's bailout of UK banks. The rescue plan will see the government buying stakes of up to 57 percent in RBS and 43 percent in a combined Lloyds and HBOS.

Interbank borrowing costs fell sharply on Friday to help the banks follow the base rate move. The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) for three-month sterling fell to 4.5 percent from 5.56 percent.

Lloyds said it would cut fixed rate products for new customers from next Tuesday, following the fall in funding costs. It wants to see where Libor settles before introducing a lower priced tracker mortgage range next week, it said.

Libor sets the cost of borrowing between banks, and is a more significant influence on banks' funding costs than the base rate. Libor has held far above the base rate since the onset of the credit crunch, making it difficult for lenders to respond to cuts by the central bank.

The BoE's rate cut on Thursday was the biggest since the central bank gained independence in 1997, and took the base rate to 3 percent, its lowest level in 54 years.

About 10 percent of British mortgage borrowers are on standard variable rates, according to figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, with half on fixed rate deals, and the remaining 40 percent on rates that track the BoE base rate.

'About 40 percent of mortgage and corporate lending is fixed rate, on our estimates, so there won't be any immediate impact from recent rate cuts until those customers refinance,' Jonathan Pierce, analyst at Credit Suisse, said in a note.

'At that time it will help, but we think about it more as curbing the uplift in payments that would otherwise have been experienced rather than allowing a big fall in monthly payments,' Pierce added.

WTO chief urges tough global financial regulation

2008-11-08T08:18:00.000-08:00

PARIS, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The head of the World Trade Organisation urged countries to accept tough new international regulation of finances even if it was an 'ideological revolution' for them to share sovereignty on such issues.

In an interview with French newspaper Le Monde published on Saturday, Pascal Lamy said it was politically sensitive in the United States and in emerging countries to accept supra-national authorities, but the financial crisis required adaptability.

'There are world organisations for trade, health, the environment, telecoms, food. There are two black holes in world governance: finance, with its bursting bubbles, and migration,' Lamy was quoted as saying by Le Monde.

'We need international regulation of finance with binding rules and a mechanism of surveillance and sanctions. A sick cow or a defective lighter don't cross borders, whereas at present a toxic financial instrument can,' he said.

Lamy reiterated that countries should resist the temptation of protectionism, which was one of the factors that caused the Wall Street crash of 1929 to snowball into a worldwide economic depression.

He rejected the notion, voiced by some critics of the U.S. Democratic Party, that under Barack Obama the world's biggest economy would be more protectionist than under the market-friendly Republicans.

'What changes with the Democratic Party are the plans to reduce social insecurity. The feeling of insecurity engendered by free trade is stronger in the United States than elsewhere because the social safety net is thinner there,' he said.

'If the Democrats apply their social programme, that can reassure Americans and help international trade talks. Obviously they have to have the resources to match their ambitions. But in any case I think it would be wrong to equate Republicans to liberalism and Democrats to protectionism,' he said.

Lamy announced on Nov. 4 he would seek a second term as director-general of the WTO and renewed his vow to conclude the Doha round of talks to open up world trade. Lamy's current term began in September 2005 and expires on Aug. 31, 2009.

Obama win triggers run on guns in many U.S. stores

2008-11-08T08:17:00.000-08:00

PHOENIX, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Sales of rifles, pistols and ammo are surging in parts of the United States, as many gun owners fear President-elect Barack Obama's administration may seek to tighten ownership of certain weapons.

'The day after the election, I had many more calls than usual from people looking for semi-automatic rifles,' said David Greenberg, the owner of the Second Amendment Family Gun Shop, in Bisbee, Arizona, who sold out of AR-15 rifles in recent days.

'There seems to be a fear they will be banned, and it's fairly likely,' he added. 'Obama and Biden are driven to eliminate firearms from the face of the country.'

Gun stores and trade groups have reported a spike in firearms sales in the run-up to the Nov. 4 election victory of Democrat Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who many perceive as strongly pro-gun control.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation, a trade association for the shooting, hunting and firearms industry, reported a 10 percent jump in gun sales this year based on its analysis of an excise tax placed on firearms and ammunition, and a spokesman said the increase had grown dramatically ahead of the election.

'Gun owners are afraid of what Obama is going to do as far as guns,' said spokesman Tony Aeschliman. 'He has a clear record of being against us.'

Obama stated his support for the right to bear arms during campaigning, although both he and Biden back a permanent ban on assault weapons -- military style semi-automatic rifles -- and 'common sense measures' to keep guns away from children and criminals, positions which spurred concern among some gun enthusiasts.

'It's always been the liberal or Democratic agenda to restrict gun ownership,' said Jim Pruett, the owner of a gun store in a Houston-area strip mall, whose sales more than tripled on the Saturday before the election to $35,000.

In McPherson, Kansas, gun dealer Steve Sechler said demand at a gun show last weekend jumped by more than 50 percent as buyers rushed to stock up on guns including Kalashnikov and AR-15 rifles.

'Most of the people there were cussing Obama and saying we need home defense,' Sechler said.

BUSINESS BOOMING

Obama loyalists say gun owners need not fear curbs when he takes office in January. The Democratic governor of Ohio, Ted Strickland, told a rally last month he had spoken directly to Obama about the right to bear arms.

'If you are a sportsman, if you are a gun owner, if you are someone that honors and respects the Second Amendment, you have nothing to fear from Barack Obama,' he told a crowd in Chillicothe.

The lobbying arm of the powerful National Rifle Association, however, stoked concerns during the campaign, calling Obama a 'serious threat to Second Amendment liberties.'

Among other complaints, they accused Obama of endorsing a 500-percent increase in the federal excise tax on firearms and ammunition -- a comment he made as an Illinois state Senator in Illinois in 1999, but has not repeated.

The sentiments are so strong Wall Street is taking notice. BB&T Capital Markets analyst Frank Mitsch on Wednesday raised estimates for Olin Corp due in part to expected increased sales from its Winchester firearms ammunition business.

But despite surging sales, not all gun dealers are celebrating.

Scottsdale, Arizona, gun shop owner Manuel Chee sold out of AR-15 type rifles in the days on either side of the election, but said he would prefer to have steady sales and no prospect of curbs -- whether real or imagined -- in the future.

'I'd rather that (Republican Sen. John) McCain got in and there's not a big scare and we just followed our normal sales,' Chee told Reuters.

'Rather than say right now we are going to make a lot of money for a few months, and then in a few months, possibly, our business could be shut down,' he added.