tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57849839984383045802024-02-19T01:10:04.191-08:00FOREX INFOThe place for all new latest forex information...azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.comBlogger282125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-46939450918673811352011-06-12T05:05:00.000-07:002011-06-12T05:05:34.082-07:00Euro Back Under Pressure<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #404040; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Tahoma, sans-serif; line-height: 16px;"></span><br />
<div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"><span class="gsstx">The Euro has come back under some intense pressure over the past few sessions with the market reacting in “sell the fact” fashion following the latest ECB rate decision and Mr. Trichet’s signaling of imminent rate hikes after using the “strong vigilance” language. Also seen weighing on the single currency have been a number of developments which include; news of a worse than forecast Greek GDP, concerns from Moody’s over a Greek default, and indications from the ECB that they are not planning to roll over their holdings of Greek debt.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"><span class="gsstx">While some of the other currencies have held up relatively well, we believe that most currencies will be more exposed against the US Dollar going forward as the risk off/global slowdown themes continue to materialize. The latest rate hike from the Bank of Korea lends more reason for concern, while market participants continue to anticipate another round of tightening from China. One of the currencies that we feel could be most vulnerable is the New Zealand Dollar which trades by multi-year highs on some more encouraging local fundamentals, but would seemingly be at risk of coming off significantly should global risk appetite continue to wane. RBNZ Bollard has even clearly stated that the local currency is overvalued and we would expect to see any additional gains from here as limited.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"><span class="gsstx">Looking ahead to the European session, Eurozone and UK inflation data and UK industrial production are the main releases and could very well inspire some additional volatility in the markets. Canada employment data, US import prices and the US monthly budget statement are the standouts in North American trade. US equity futures and commodities prices are back to showing offered following mild recoveries on Thursday.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: center;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">ECONOMIC CALENDAR</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-color: initial; border-style: initial;"><img alt="Opening_COmment_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Back Under Pressure on Local Concenrs and Global Slowdown Fears" class="gsstx" height="640" src="http://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2011/06/10/Opening_COmment_body_Picture_5.png" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; max-width: 660px;" width="457" /></span><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: center;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">TECHNICAL OUTLOOK</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-color: initial; border-style: initial;"><img alt="Opening_COmment_body_eur.png, Euro Back Under Pressure on Local Concenrs and Global Slowdown Fears" class="gsstx" height="255" src="http://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2011/06/10/Opening_COmment_body_eur.png" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; max-width: 660px;" width="400" /></span><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: justify;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">EUR/USD</span><span class="gsstx">: Rallies have stalled out just ahead of the 78.6% fib retracement off of the major 1.4940-1.3970 move, and the market could finally be in the process of carving out a fresh lower top by 1.4700 ahead of the next major downside extension back towards the 1.3970 recent trend lows. From here, look for a daily close below 1.4400 to confirm bias and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.4700 delays and gives reason for concern. Look for intraday rallies to be well capped ahead of 1.4650.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-color: initial; border-style: initial;"><img alt="Opening_COmment_body_jpy2.png, Euro Back Under Pressure on Local Concenrs and Global Slowdown Fears" class="gsstx" height="255" src="http://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2011/06/10/Opening_COmment_body_jpy2.png" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; max-width: 660px;" width="400" /></span><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: justify;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">USD/JPY: </span><span class="gsstx">After undergoing a fairly intense drop off from the 85.50 area several days back, the market looks to have finally found some support in the 80.00 area and could be in the process of carving out some form of a base. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported around 80.00 with only a close back below 79.50 to give reason for concern. From here we see the risks for a fresh upside extension back towards the recent range highs at 85.50 over the coming weeks and a break and close back above 81.00 will help to confirm.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-color: initial; border-style: initial;"><img alt="Opening_COmment_body_gbp2.png, Euro Back Under Pressure on Local Concenrs and Global Slowdown Fears" class="gsstx" height="204" src="http://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2011/06/10/Opening_COmment_body_gbp2.png" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; max-width: 660px;" width="320" /></span><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: justify;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">GBP/USD</span><span class="gsstx">: </span><span class="gsstx">Rallies have been very well capped in the 1.6500’s with the market looking like it wants to carve out a fresh lower top by 1.6550 ahead of the next downside extension below 1.6060. A daily close back below 1.6285 will reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines, while only back above 1.6550 negates and gives reason for pause.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-color: initial; border-style: initial;"><img alt="Opening_COmment_body_swiss1.png, Euro Back Under Pressure on Local Concenrs and Global Slowdown Fears" class="gsstx" height="255" src="http://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2011/06/10/Opening_COmment_body_swiss1.png" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; max-width: 660px;" width="400" /></span><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px; text-align: justify;"><span class="gsstx" style="font-weight: bold;">USD/CHF:</span><span class="gsstx"> The latest minor recovery has proved to be just that, with the market finding a fresh lower top ahead of 0.9000 in favor of a drop to yet another record low below 0.8400. Daily studies are however still looking quite stretched to us, and we continue to like the idea of taking shots at buying in anticipation of a major base. Look for a break and close back above 0.8450 to encourage bullish reversal prospects, while only a drop below 0.8300 delays.</span></div><div class="gsstx" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 4px; padding-left: 4px; padding-right: 4px; padding-top: 4px;"></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #404040; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Tahoma, sans-serif; font-weight: bold; line-height: 16px;">Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #404040; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Tahoma, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 16px;"><b><br />
</b></span></span></div>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-60833803128773602712010-11-23T23:29:00.000-08:002010-11-23T23:29:54.458-08:00Islamic Forex Accounts – Islamic Forex Trading with TDFX<div align="justify"><strong>Islamic forex accounts</strong> are a specific category of forex trading accounts also known as interest free or swap free forex accounts.</div><div align="justify">Islamic forex trading accounts permit clients of Islamic religion to trade on interest free accounts (SWAP free or Roll Over fee) with no extra charge or penalty for the ability to trade in adherence with Islamic religious principles. Clients can open and close positions at any time within the Tadawul FX Metatrader 4 system without being constrained to holding them for a defined period.</div><div align="justify">Some common <strong>Islamic forex trading account</strong> conditions include:</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><strong>No Riba Policy:</strong></span> <br />
Clients benefiting from the Tadawul FX No Riba policy may hold positions for an undetermined time at the original opening price until they are closed and no charges will occur. Tadawul FX may revoke the ‘No Riba’ policy in case of abuse with a 48 hour notice by email.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><strong>Musharaka or commonly called joint venture:</strong></span><br />
This refers to a partnership or joint venture for a specific business with a profit motive, whereby the distribution of profits will be apportioned according to an agreed ratio. In the event of losses, both parties will share the losses on the basis of the agreed ratio.</div><div align="justify"><br />
</div><div align="justify"><span style="color: #6aa84f;"><strong>Hibah (Gift or Donation):</strong></span> The term ‘hibah’ refers to gifts awarded voluntarily in return for a loan given. Tadawul FX will select different organizations in order to enable investors to donate a percentage of their profits to them.</div><div align="justify">At Tadawul FX, we offer clients the possibility to choose Islamic Forex Trading conditions for any of our Forex account types including <a href="http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trading-accounts/mini-forex-account.html">Mini</a>, <a href="http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trading-accounts/standard-forex-account.html">Standard</a> or <a href="http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trading-accounts/premium-forex-account.html">Premium</a> accounts, regardless of base currency or leverage offered. Islamic trading accounts may also be used for <a href="http://www.tadawulfx.com/public/trading-accounts/managed-forex-account.html">Managed forex accounts</a>, as the only determining factor is the religion of the client that the trading account belongs to. TDFX enables its clients to trade with no swap charges and with no other additional charges, spread or hidden fees, ‘simply fair and ethical trading conditions for all’.</div><div align="justify">The Islamic Accounts offered by Tadawul FX are not the same as the Islamic Accounts generally offered by other Forex companies. They differ based on the fact that TDFX offers SWAP free accounts with no other additional charges, whereas most other companies transfer this fee by widening the spread on Islamic Accounts. In order to abide by Islamic religious beliefs, one must not pay interest but if that interest charge is transferred to a different type of fee, it is basically still a charge to cover the interest. This is also referred to as a SWAP fee in disguise. Tadawul FX does not do this, again demonstrating that TDFX offers fair and ethical trading conditions.</div><div align="justify">To open an Islamic Forex account with TDFX, simply complete our <a href="https://www.tadawulfx.com/v2/register/index.php/form">online forex trading account opening form </a>and select the 'swap-free' option.</div>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-6737657608625188242010-11-23T23:28:00.000-08:002010-11-23T23:28:32.855-08:00Islamic Forex AccountMFFX offers the possibility of Islamic or swap-free accounts with no rollover charges. Swaps or roll over charges will not apply to such accounts. For this service MFFX offers one pip spread higher on all currencies per trade.<br />
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MFFX offers all clients the opportunity to maintain islamic trading accounts (swap free forex trading accounts) whereby no roll over interest will be charged or incurred to positions held overnight which is in compliance of the Islamic Shariah Law. A small fee of $8 dollar per standard lot is charge daily for positions held overnight. Traders can hold the positions for unlimited time.<br />
<br />
In order to maintain an Islamic (swap free) Forex trading account a Request For Islamic (Swap Free) Forex Trading Account has to be filled & signed by the client and sent to us by Fax or e-mail to <a href="mailto:admin@mffx.com">admin@mffx.com</a>. MFFX offers Islamic (swap free) Forex trading account to all clients no matter what their religion. Clients can open the account in any of the available currencies base. <img alt="" border="0" height="10" src="http://www.mffx.com/img/pixel_trans.gif" width="1" /><br />
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s MFFX Trading system adhering to Islamic Shariah Law? <br />
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<a href="http://www.mffx.com/mfaq#28"><img alt="" border="0" height="24" src="http://www.mffx.com/img/btn_faq.gif" width="200" /></a>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-53013145129021890392009-07-29T17:38:00.001-07:002009-07-29T17:38:50.495-07:00Simplicity Is The Main Thing To Attain Currency Trading Success<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The basis for why several of the traders lose and do not attain currency trading success is regularly attributed to a lack of discipline, though this is not the main cause, it’s just a small part of the trouble.<span id="more-35"></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The main cause is a short of “strong concentration”, this indeed should be looked in to as the majority of traders are ignorant of it.<span> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">If you desire to attain currency trading success you require “strong concentration” and this denotes concentrating on how and why forex markets actually function and what you have to do to eventually succeed. The majority of traders just will not follow this and they will lose.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Do your work smartly; don’t make things harder for yourself</strong>:</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">In several industries to attain success the more you place in the more you get out in terms of returns; this is not right in currency trading.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">What you require to study is that to attain real good success in currency trading you will have to be working real smart, you must not be playing tough rather you must be applying an easy system that should have you spend less time and better profit.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">You can make a better currency trading process in just an hour a day and create triple digit annual gains! Simplicity is the main thing to attain currency trading success.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Trade with likelihood:</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">These days, there is a massive industry that informs us of analytical theories and functions and you can choose market bottoms and tops with technical correctness.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">The other huge fairy tale is <a title="Simplicity Is The Main Thing To Attain Currency Trading Success" href="http://www.theforexblogger.com/" target="_blank"><strong>day trading</strong></a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">You can attempt to trade pretty harder as you desire, but the odds are not in your goodwill in day trading, as you will not have sufficient profits to wrap your predictable losses.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">You require to trade better in the longer run and this is where the likelihood of success is more and this is one of the single method with which you will land up with success in currency trading.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-77804875785828295402009-07-29T17:36:00.000-07:002009-07-29T17:40:27.544-07:00Reserve Bank of Australia Could be the First to Hike RatesBased on the chart below, which plots the Australian Dollar against the New Zealand Dollar over the last two years, one might be tempted to conclude that the two currencies are identical for all intents and purposes. Rather than suffer the inconvenience of separately analyzing the Australian Dollar.<br /><br /><br /><p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 406px; height: 228px;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1955" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/aud-nzd.png" alt="aud-nzd" /></p> <p style="text-align: left;">But this chart belies the fact that while the two currencies, have risen and fallen (in near lockstep) in sync with the ebb and flow of risk aversion, this could soon change. While the near-term prospects for the New Zealand economy are dubious, sentiment towards the Australian economy is more consistently optimistic. “Central bank Governor Glenn Stevens said the nation’s economic downturn may not be ‘one of the more serious’ of the post-World War II era.” In addition, “Stevens said the nation’s economy may rebound faster than the central bank had predicted six months ago on improving confidence among consumers and businesses alike.” The latest projections are for a fall in .5% contraction in GDP in 2009 followed by a 1% rise in 2010.</p> <p>Meanwhile, government spending is surging: “The Australian government forecast its largest budget deficit on record of A$57.6 billion for fiscal year 2009-10, or 4.9% of GDP.” Combined with the steady recovery in commodity prices and the resumption of residential construction, this could soon trickle down through the Australian economy in the form of inflation. It’s no wonder, then, that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could begin tightening interest rates as early as December, in order to mitigate against the possibility of inflation in 2011 and 2012.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"> </p><div style="text-align: center;"> <img style="width: 416px; height: 147px;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1956" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/australia-cpi-inflation.jpg" alt="australia-cpi-inflation" /><br /></div><p style="text-align: left;">In fact, Governor Glen Stevens has been raising eyebrows with his unequivocal comments about raising rates. “I’ve never seen written down … I’ve never heard in discussion in the institution, some rule of thumb that says we wait until unemployment’s peaked before we lift the cash rate…I think it depends what else is happening, and also depends how low you went. We eased very aggressively,” he said recently. As a result, traders are betting that rates will be 1.13% higher one year from now than they are today.</p> <p>This development should be of especial interest to <span class="hilite">forex</span> traders. Australian interest rates are already the highest in the industrialized world. When you consider “the market’s expectations that the RBA is likely to be the G-10 central bank which is likely to hike first,” it goes a long way towards explaining the 18% rise in the Aussie that has taken place in 2009 alone. Compare a hypothetical 4% RBA benchmark rate to the .1% in Japan and ~0% in the US, and carry traders will start to salivate.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-34673204691062703702009-07-29T17:34:00.000-07:002009-07-29T17:39:51.579-07:00New Zealand Dollar Rise Threatens Economic Recovery<p>Having risen nearly 30% against the US Dollar since March, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD or Kiwi) is now close to a 9 1/2 month high. While still far from the record highs of 2008, the currency is already erased a large portion of the losses it racked up since the credit crisis gave way to economic recession.</p> <p>As part of last <a href="http://www.forexblog.org/2009/07/japanese-yen-exports-versus-carry.html">Friday’s coverage of the Japanese Yen</a>, we included a chart which compared the performance of the AUD/JPY cross to the S&P 500. Even without calculating the correlation coefficient, a cursory review of the chart revealed an uncanny relationship! Unsurprisingly, it turns out the same relationship also applies to the New Zealand Dollar, whose recent performance closely mirrors US equities.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 365px; height: 206px;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1946" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/nzd.png" alt="nzd" /></p> <p>In other words, the interplay between risk appetite and risk aversion continues to dominate the <span class="hilite">forex</span> markets, as traders move to calibrate the split of funds between so-called safe haven currencies and the riskier alternatives, among which the New Zealand Dollar is certainly counted. Much of the rally in the Kiwi, then, represents a correction, as investors acknowledge that the near 50% slide from-peak-to-trough was an overreaction.</p> <p>Going forward, however, the Kiwi will have to rest on its own feet, as new themes move to the fore of investors’ minds. Specifically, they will begin to look more closely at the New Zealand economy, and demand evidence of a recovery. “<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090714-700029.html" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard</a> told a business audience the world has ‘avoided a repeat of the Great Depression. Now, we and the world, appear to be on our way to recovery. New Zealand looks likely to start recovering ahead of the pack.’ ”</p> <p>At the same time, the most recent economic data showed an economy in freefall, as “New Zealand’s economy shrank for a <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dad55046-61f4-11de-9e03-00144feabdc0.html">fifth straight quarter</a>…The economy contracted 2.7 per cent in the January-March quarter.” While forecasts vary, GDP is expected to fall by at least 2.1% in 2009, with a modest pickup expected in 2010. Investors are betting that the recovery will be driven by rising demand for commodities, which will help to buoy New Zealand exports. Once again, this conflicts with the data, which shows an annualized <a href="http://www.forexblog.org/$3%20Billion" target="_blank">trade deficit of $3 Billion</a>. Despite a fall in imports, the country is still importing more than its exporting. This could be a product of the stronger currency, which all stakeholders agree is not conducive to economic growth. In the end, the economy’s best chance for recovery lies in a resumption of debt-induced consumption and residential construction, the very forces which caused the current downturn. Says Mr. Bollard, “Reliance on past experience of strong house price inflation and easy credit will be untenable.”</p> <p>Given the uncertain prospects for growth, combined with moderating price inflation, the RBNZ can be expected to hold interest rates at current levels for the near-term. “Bollard will leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.5 percent on <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=ajBITvArkefw">July 30</a>, according to all 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.” Based on <a href="http://news.alibaba.com/article/detail/markets/100143654-1-poll-new-zealand-central-bank-set.html">swap rates</a>, the markets feel similarly, and are pricing a mere 25 basis point hike over the next twelve months. With such a dubious prognosis, one has to wonder whether the Kiwi’s rally is really sustainable.</p> <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1949" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/new-zealand-cpi-inflation2.jpg" alt="new-zealand-cpi-inflation2" width="230" height="267" /></p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-49075234493471937472009-05-28T11:08:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:15:51.442-07:00How to Find a Good Forex Broker<div class="post-body entry-content"> To trade forex, you need the services of a broker. Here are some tips to help you find a select a good broker.<br /><br />1. Ask friends and colleagues for references. You may not have the luxury of having a trusted person to ask their advice on a broker. If you do, take advantage of that resource. A personal recommendation can cut way down on your research time and help you avoid making a bad decision.<br /><br />If the same broker is recommended more than once, obviously you will want to take that into consideration. You might decide to look no further.<br /><br />2. Do online research. The internet is an excellent research tool, and you should use it to locate several contenders to serve as your broker. Compile a list of brokers that look promising, and make a comparison chart to easily compare "apples to apples".<br /><br />3. Using your comparison chart, select the three or four brokers that seem to most closely match your needs.<br /><br />Some brokers will naturally appeal to the needs of certain traders more than others. One potentially important factor is the number and usefulness of the "helps" that each offers. Does the company maintain a forum, and is it actively used? Does the trading interface seem easy to use? What sort of research tools do they offer, if any?<br /><br />4. Once you have narrowed down your list, do further investigation on your final contenders. Consider calling them on the phone. Ask yourself if they offer enough services to help you with your forex business. Request a free trial so you can get to know their company; at the very least, ask if they have a demo account for you to try.<br /><br />If you're not a native English speaker, consider whether or not the broker offers services in your main language. This can become a very important factor in making your decision. As you learn and improve your forex trading skills, you don't want to struggle with a language barrier too.<br /><br />5. After you have selected your broker, it is not out the question to keep tabs on other brokers. You are not "married" to any given broker that you pick. If you want, you can invest a certain amount of time every couple of months to see if any brokers have expanded their line of services or appeal to your needs better.<br /><br />After all, you will be spending a considerable of money with the broker, paying for their services through the spread prices, so you will likely want some assurance over time that you are getting the best return on your investment.<br /><br />Similarly, consider periodically evaluating your experience with your broker. Ask yourself if there any "holes" in the services they have provided to you. Are there any additional services which would help you make better trades? If the answer is yes, that is a clue for specific features you may want to seek out in a different broker at some time in the future.<br /><br />Selecting a forex broker is one of the most important decisions you make in your forex business, so take the time to do it right. </div><a name="8538842591344967905"></a> <h3 class="post-title entry-title"> <span style="font-size:130%;">Start Forex Trading:A Few FX Tips</span> </h3> Forex trading can be rewarding in more ways than one. It can provide a nice part-time income or even give you the freedom to quit your job and work from home. Here are some steps you should take before you begin trading.<br /><br />First, invest some time in learning about forex markets and trading. There are many training guides available, and you should pick up two or three and learn everything you can. Get comfortable with the terminology and calculations.<br /><br />Second, save up seed capital to begin trading with. If you already have the money on hand, that's great. Resist the urge to borrow from your mortgage money or grocery budget in order to start forex trading. Only invest what you are willing to lose, especially in the beginning when you are learning the ropes.<br /><br />Third, make sure you have a firm financial foundation. You want to make sure you are making investing decisions based upon sound principles and not because your car payment is due in two days. Rash decisions made out of desperation often end in disaster, so take it slowly and learn how to trade forex before you rely on the money you will earn.<br /><br />You may need to continue working in your job for a while, until you are comfortable in the forex market and are earning a comfortable income. Or, you may need to go out and get a job, at least part-time. Don't worry, it doesn't have to be forever.<br /><br />Fourth, decide what your working hours will be. The forex markets are open 24 hours per day, Monday through Friday; you can even work at night if you choose! If you have a job or other time commitments, take those into account as well.<br /><br />Fifth, select a broker. Many forex brokers are available. Do your due diligence and research each broker that you are seriously considering. Make note of the benefits listed in their advertisements. and construct a comparison chart of the most important features. You can always change brokers later; just make sure your broker's policies and ways of doing business are compatible with yours.<br /><br />Sixth, once you begin trading, keep a record of your progress. As you do research before making investment decisions, keep track of what you find and why you made specific decisions. Consider opening a Google account; you can use a separate Gmail address for all your forex-related email correspondence, clip web pages with Google Notebook, make notes in Google Docs, and do financial calculations in Google Spreadsheet.<br /><br />Forex trading is quickly becoming one of the favorite ways that people are supplementing and even replacing their income. The training and tools you need are widely available. Will you be the next successful forex trader?azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-25811195391577029192009-05-28T11:07:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:07:40.055-07:00Brazilian Real Continues Rise on Current Account Surplus<p><img class="alignleft" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 6px; float: left;" src="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Brazilian_Real.png" alt="Brazilian Real" width="156" height="71" />The Brazilian currency had the sharpest rise in seven days after the country’s first current account surplus in 19 months was posted this week, pushing the national equities market up.<span id="more-822"></span></p> <p>After 19 months in deficit, the Brazilian current account, which is the broadest measure of a country’s trading activity, had a surplus of $146 million, pushed mainly by a recovery in commodity prices together with a decrease in multinational companies profit remittances. The Brazilian real suffered drastically when the global slump hit Latin American in the second semester of the last year, losing ground against virtually all main currencies, but since economic conditions improved in the past months, mainly in Asia, the demand for commodities increased, causing the Brazilian stock market to rally and spurring demand for the national currency.</p> <p>Brazil is a main exporter of grains and several metallic commodities, and the rising demand improved confidence in Brazilian markets, according to experts. Being the real a high-yielding currency, it has been favored by a new wave of risk appetite on world markets, which has also favored several Asian currencies and the euro. The recovery in the Brazilian equities market is also attracting foreign investors back to this Latin American nation, adding attractiveness to the country’s currency profile.</p> <p>USD/BRL traded at 2.0054 from 2.0185. Brazil’s real also posted gains against European currencies being the EUR/BRL traded at 2.8020 from 2.8231 and the GBP/BRL at 3.2086 from 3.2147.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-17513451229824511462009-05-28T11:06:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:06:36.667-07:00MACD Sample Expert Advisor<p> <strong>MACD Sample expert advisor</strong> is a famous sample expert advisor made by MetaQuotes software to implement a very simple MACD-based strategy of Forex trading. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) is one of the basic financial trading indicators, which is present in every MetaTrader platform. This version of MACD Sample was optimized specifically for GBP/USD H4 chart. This expert advisor uses crosses of 4 MACD indicators and 2 moving average indicators to determine the next position's direction. MACD Sample uses a trailing stop-loss for its orders. That's why it has a very high percentage of profitable orders. But this expert advisor should be always active to stop out the losing positions in time.</p> <p>My test of <strong>MACD Sample MetaTrader expert advisor</strong> showed some interest results. I used GBP/USD H4 chart (I optimized it for this combination) with 0.3 standard lots orders. The results were about $4,450 profit and about $1,030 maximum drawdown in one year period. Checking it on a three years period didn't reveal any problems for this EA.</p> <h3>MiniFAQ</h3> <p><span class="faq">What are the stop-loss and take-profit used by this EA?</span></p> It uses 30 pip take-profit and 60 trailing stop-loss. The average losing position is 196 pips. <p><span class="faq">How often does it trade?</span></p> On 4-hour GBP/USD chart (the optimum settings) this EA will trade about 3 times a month on average. <p> <a title="Download MACD Sample expert advisor" href="http://www.earnforex.com/mt4_expert_advisors/MACD_Sample.mq4">Download MACD Sample expert advisor</a></p> <p> <a title="Download zipped MACD Sample expert advisor" href="http://www.earnforex.com/mt4_expert_advisors/MACD_Sample.zip">Download zipped MACD Sample expert advisor</a></p> <p><b>Warning!</b> Before you ask any basic questions regarding installation of the expert advisors, please, read this <a title="MetaTrader Expert Advisors User's Tutorial" href="http://www.earnforex.com/blog/2007/07/metatrader-expert-advisros-users/">MT4 Expert Advisors Tutorial</a> to get the elementary knowledge on handling them.</p> <p> Do you have your own trading results or any other remarks regarding this expert advisor? Don't hesitate to <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.earnforex.com/contact.php">contact me</a>. </p><p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f13/macd-sample-20/">Discuss MACD Sample</a> with other traders and MQL programmers on the experts forums.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-81214086313454278072009-05-28T11:05:00.000-07:002009-05-28T11:06:01.633-07:00Yen Declines Further as Investors Purchase Assets Overseas<img class="alignleft" style="border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 6px; float: left;" src="http://www.topforexnews.com/images/Japanese_Yen_2004.jpg" alt="Japanese yen" width="140" height="67" />The yen hit a 8-week low against the dollar and also lost ground against the euro, as Japanese investors, driven by a new wave of confidence on world markets, return to overseas investments.<span id="more-824"></span> <p><a href="http://www.mof.go.jp/english/">The Ministry of Finance in Japan</a> affirmed that national investors had the highest rise in foreign bonds purchases during the current month, this declaration reflected immediately in the Japanese currency market, making the yen to lose against all of the 16 most-traded currencies. The yen also lost ground against high-yielding currencies in Asia, such as the Malaysian ringgit and the South Korean won. <a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/">Standard&Poor’s</a> raised the outlook for the New Zealand’s debt rating, pushing it sharply up in the Pacific trading area.</p> <p>Japanese investors are more comfortable to take riskier positions, since the global financial situation has been reporting sequential signs of recovery, the attractiveness of higher-yielding currencies is once again alluring for Asian traders. Analysts confirm that the Standard&Poor’s report on New Zealand may bring interesting profits for traders willing to enter long in the NZD/JPY currency pair. For the time being the safety profile of the yen as an investment is strongly not recommended among trading experts.</p> <p>USD/JPY rose enormously from 95.15 to 96.79 and following the same trend GBP/JPY traded at 152.05 to 154.31 and NZD/JPY also rallied from 59.05 to 60.05.</p> <p>If you want to comment on the Japanese yen’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-47360808801762245412009-05-28T11:04:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:04:52.471-07:00Russia Leads World in Declining Forex Reserves<p>During the global economic boom and concomitant run-up in energy prices, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves exploded. The subsequent bursting of the bubble, however, proved the maxim, <em>what goes up must come down</em>. “After reaching a <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090514-704422.html">record high of $597.5 billion</a> in early August, reserves have declined dramatically as the central bank spent more than $200 billion on propping up a depreciating ruble.”</p> <p>Excluding the European Union, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are still the world’s third largest, behind only China and Japan. By Russia’s own admission, this will not remain the case for long. If current economic conditions continue to prevail, its entire stock of reserves will be depleted <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090516-700347.html" target="_blank">within two to three years</a>. Moreover, as its reserves have declined, the share of Euros have risen (perhaps due to the selling of Dollars) to 47.5%, surpassing the Dollar for the first time. Despite the <a href="http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20052009/323/update-3-dollar-top-currency-russia-reserves-cbank.html">insistence of Russian authorities</a> that the change was inadvertent, the fact remains that the Euro currently predominates in Russia’s forex portfolio.</p> <p>These two trends - declining reserves and shifting allocation - are becoming entrenched, and may in fact accelerate. A cursory skim of the most recent <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/8802.pdf">IMF Data on International Reserves</a> reveals that the reported reserves of most countries have fallen over the last year, or at the very least, are not growing at the same pace. The <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/05/27/another-gloomy-forecast-this-one-from-the-un/" target="_blank">WSJ reports</a> that “Foreign-exchange reserves of about 30 low-income countries have already fallen below the critical value equivalent to three months of imports.”</p> <p>Meanwhile, it has been highlighted elsewhere that China - which does not report its reserves and is hence not included on this list - has seen its reserves stagnate, and has hinted publicly that it is nervous about the preponderance of Dollars it holds. And suffice it to say that when China talks, people listen.</p> <p>The clear implication is that the US Dollar may not hold sway as the world’s unchallenged reserve currency for much longer. It is certainly not as if this is a new possibility. After all, “The United States possesses around one-fifth of the world’s GDP, but its own paper provides around 75% of world’s exchangeable currency reserves. This is a worrying imbalance,” <a href="http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=90103" target="_blank">argues one economist</a>.</p> <p>The impetus can be found in changed economic circumstances, which previously reinforced the Dollar’s role as reserve currency, but now suggest the opposite. Declining world trade and lower current account imbalances result directly in lower reserves, as do government stimulus plans funded with foreign exchange. The pickup in risk appetite meanwhile, combined with inflationary US monetary and fiscal policy, will make Central Banks increasingly reluctant to hold Dollar-denominated assets. Finally, the locus of the global economy is slowly shifting to East Asia. This trend will probably gather momentum if and when the global economy recovers, as the rest of the world has now learned the hard way that their collective reliance on US consumers is not sustainable.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-49375432402936472732009-05-28T11:03:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:04:04.812-07:00Why Forex Trading is an Ideal Home Business?<p> Forex trading should be considered by anyone looking to start their own home based business. In this article, we will define Forex trading; explain its advantages over other business opportunities and discuss some pitfalls to avoid.</p> <p> <b>What is Forex trading?</b></p> <p> "Forex" is short for "foreign exchange", and refers to the trading of monetary currencies.</p> <p> Many people don't realize that currencies are traded, similar to stock trading. Since the value of each nation's currency is constantly fluctuating in relationship to other currencies, there are opportunities for you to profit.</p> <p> <b>Advantages of Forex trading as a home-based business.</b></p> <p> There are several advantages of Forex trading including:</p> <p> - You can adapt your participation to your own schedule</p> <p> The Forex market is open for trading 24 hours per day, Monday through Friday, unlike the stock market or any other business in which you must work around "business hours". With Forex trading, you can work in the middle of the night if you want.</p> <p> - Large marketplace</p> <p> Forex trading is the largest marketplace in the world. It shadows all other markets, even the stock market. That means there is opportunity for anyone to participate. The daily trading volume is nearly 4 trillion dollars!</p> <p> - Low barrier to entry</p> <p> It takes less than $100 to get started Forex trading. If you can scrape together that amount of cash, even if it takes a garage sale or selling some of your extra stuff on eBay or Craigslist, you can jump into Forex trading.</p> <p> <b>Some pitfalls to watch out for.</b></p> <p> Be aware of these potential problems if you decide to enter the Forex market:</p> <p> - Investing decisions based on emotion rather than logic</p> <p> As with any type of investing, it's very easy to get caught up in the prospect of making big money. Place some limits on yourself so that you don't use money you need for living expenses.</p> <p> - Investing without a solid knowledge of the playing field</p> <p> No serious athlete would step out onto the baseball diamond or basketball court without thoroughly understanding the "rules of the game", and neither should you venture into any type of investing without the same level of understanding.</p> <p> - Trading too frequently</p> <p> Although there are no "commissions" when trading Forex, you will be responsible to pay the "spread", which is the variance between the ask price and the bid price. If you do very many trades, these "spreads" can really add up. Just make sure you understand the cost of your trades before you make them.</p> <p> <b>Conclusion</b></p> <p> Forex can be an ideal avenue for you to make extra money, or even as a foundation for a home-based business. It is wide open for anyone: you don't need to have any specific credentials or background. Why not take a share of this market today?</p> <p> by Garry Williams</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-43518268436690634022009-05-28T11:02:00.000-07:002009-05-28T11:03:20.205-07:00Price Alert<p> <strong>Price Alert MetaTrader indicator</strong> — plays sound alerts when the price reaches certain levels that are set by the trader. There are three types of alerts: first one is used when the price rises above certain level (displayed with the green line on the chart), second one is used when the price falls below certain level (displayed with the red line on the chart), third one is used when the price reaches the certain level exactly (displayed with the yellow line). All alerts turn off when they are triggered and can be turned on again with the new values. </p> <h3>Input parameters:</h3> <ul><li><strong>SoundWhenPriceGoesAbove</strong> (default = 0.0) — if price goes above this value the alert will be triggered.</li><li><strong>SoundWhenPriceGoesBelow</strong> (default = 0.0) — if price goes below this value the alert will be triggered.</li><li><strong>SoundWhenPriceIsExactly</strong> (default = 0.0) — if price is exactly at this value the alert is triggered.</li></ul><br /><center> <img src="http://www.earnforex.com/mt4_forex_indicators/images/Price_Alert.gif" alt="Price Alert Indicator Example MetaTrader Chart" width="528" height="639" /> </center> <p>This indicator can't be used as a trading system and it isn't generating any signals. You can use it whenever you wish to be notified of some new price levels. Then you can use the moment to do whatever you want with the market. You can set the input parameters to zero value if you don't want to use some of them.</p> <h3>Downloads:</h3> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/mt4_forex_indicators/PriceAlert.zip">Price Alert in .zip </a></p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/mt4_forex_indicators/PriceAlert.mq4">Price Alert in .mq4 </a></p> <h3>Discussion:</h3> <p><b>Warning!</b> Before you ask any basic questions regarding installation of the indicators, please, read this <a title="MetaTrader Indicators User's Tutorial" href="http://www.earnforex.com/blog/2008/01/metatrader-indicators-user-tutorial/">MT4 Indicators Tutorial</a> to get the elementary knowledge on handling them.</p> <p> Do you have any suggestions or questions regarding this indicator? You can always <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.earnforex.com/contact.php">contact me</a> or <a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forum/f12/price-alert-813/">discuss Price Alert</a> with the other traders and MQL programmers on the indicators forums.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-14744171963830286882009-05-28T11:01:00.001-07:002009-05-28T11:01:53.223-07:00Tips to Make Money Fast in Forex<p> This is all about making a fortune with Forex. Most traders just go with the flow and make average gains, with this article you will learn what makes some traders stand out and a lot richer than others!</p> <p> We are going to assume that you know how to trade, and has quite an experience in trading.</p> <p> With simple changes in your trade selection, money and risk management, and mindset, you can change that average gains into larger ones!</p> <p> Fast money is in Forex, it is a lifestyle. here is it how its done.</p> <p> Tip 1 . Embrace Changeability and Risk With a Smile</p> <p> Forex systems have instability.</p> <p> If you cannot manage and calculate your risk, then don't ever think about trading in Forex. Many traders back away from forex because of this ( why do you even traded in the first place?). But taking manageable risks has its rewards. </p> <p> It's just simple, you know what your losing if ever it doesn't work out, yet what you gain is unpredictable but sure is high! That is what I call excitement, my friend. </p> <p> To a well-educated Forex trader, this is something you shouldn't be afraid of, might as well embrace it.</p> <p> Tip 2. Trade Less, gain more</p> <p> Most traders think that if they don't trade, another door has closed, or miss some move. The tendency, they trade frequently. Most of the trades that come big come a few times in a year. Focus on the trades that make the really big gains. Be alert, and informed.</p> <p> Tip 3. Diversify is a no-no</p> <p> Most Investors accept the fact that diversification can make money fast - in reality it does exactly the opposite.</p> <p> Tip 4. Money and Risk Management</p> <p> This article has been concentrating on the Big gains, because this is your money, so every penny should be controlled, this is where money management kicks in.</p> <p> Control your risks, but increase your chances of success:</p> <p> - Give yourself staying power by buying options at or in the money, this prevents you from getting stopped out. Many traders lose not by the market direction, but because they were stopped out by a instable move, and options will give you staying power.</p> <p> - Keep your stop in its original position - until the move is well in profit, before moving it up.</p> <p> - Trading fast and selectively - have the courage to trade when you feel it is good. and enjoy the cash.</p> <p> Tip 5. Compound growth has its benefits</p> <p> The way to make money fast in forex, is to understand the power of compound growth. For example, if you target 50% a year in your trading, you can grow an initial $20,000 account, to over a million dollars, in under 10 years.</p> <p> Break the norm, and gain more. Follow some of these tips and make your way into the big gains!</p> <p> by Ryan Joseph Ferrer</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-89251795721008907412009-05-28T10:59:00.000-07:002009-05-28T11:00:44.316-07:00Euro Surges on Better Economic Indicators<div class="entry"> <p>EUR/USD posted a sharp gain today after declining for three days in a row as the markets gained on the better fundamental conditions. The U. S. statistics was mixed today, but still positive enough for EUR/USD to rise. It’s now trading near 1.3937.</p> <p><a href="http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/">Durable goods orders</a> rose by 1.9% in April after decreasing by 2.1% in March (revised down from 0.8% drop). The median forecast was at 0.5% gain.</p> <p><a href="http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm">Initial jobless claims</a> decreased from 636k to 623k last week. A drop to 628k was expected.</p> <p><a href="http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf">New home sales</a> rose from 351k to 352k seasonally adjusted annual rate in April. But the March value came out revised down from 356k. Traders expected a growth to 360k.</p> <p><a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt">Crude oil inventories</a> decreased by 5.4 million barrels last week, following 2.1 million barrels decline during a previous week. The overall inventories are now at 363.1 million barrels.</p> <p>Yesterday the existing home sales report showed a gain from 4.55 million to <a href="http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2009/05/ehs_rise">4.68 million in April</a> compared to March. The March value was negatively revised from 4.57 million. The April growth according to the average forecast should have been to 4.66 million.</p> </div>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-31178465040501752282009-05-04T07:36:00.001-07:002009-05-04T07:36:44.533-07:00STARTING FOREX TRADINGThe best and most efficient way for the traders to make money is through the internet in the Forex Trading by using the online forex trading system. The forex market is the most liquid trading market and an unpredictable market in the world.<span id="more-10"></span> But still this forex market is the best for expert traders to amass huge profits. But it doesn’t mean that a trader should be an expert to make profits in the forex markets, it is enough if he knows the basics of forex trading and a little common sense along with the knowledge of the present economy of the countries world wide. Getting started with forex has become easy, due to the advances in technology.<br />1. The first and foremost aspect is that a person who wants to do forex trading should choose a good Forex Broker, the forex broker should help the forex trader to have a practice account, great customer support, good charting packages and news feeds. To analyze the forex brokers, there is a report called CFD FX REPORT which reviews forex brokers and give its rankings.<br />2. The second aspect is that, the forex trader must fund and deposit money in his newly acquired account. Due to modernity, these days many Forex Broker Platforms make it very easy for transactions, the trader can deposit via Credit Card, direct debit, check. It is always recommended by most advisors to start with only little amount of money and after a little experiences the forex trader can increase his leverage rates later.<br />3. The third step is the forex broker should help to move in the right direction that suits the trader’s trading style. There are several quality Free forex charts available to indicate the trend and also there are many sites that update the Fx Rates everyday. It is important to use them regularly.azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-5521463935177667582009-05-04T07:35:00.001-07:002009-05-04T07:35:53.873-07:00Euro Resumes Decline After Brief Pause<p>The one-year chart of the EUR/USD depicts a general downward trend, punctuated with steep “blips.” Every couple of months or so, it seems traders are temporarily jarred loose from their mindset of Euro bearishness, and find an excuse to bid up the common currency. Invariably, the Euro then resumes its downward course a few weeks later.<br /><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1617" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/euro-declines-against-dollar-in-2009.png" alt="euro-declines-against-dollar-in-2009" width="512" height="284" /><br />The Euro’s recent trading activity fits this mold perfectly. The global stock market rally in March was accompanied by a spike in the Euro. While equities, commodities, and even other currencies continued to rise, however, the Euro peaked after a couple weeks and has since hovered around the $1.30 mark. As one currency strategist summarized: “A breakdown of the correlation between the euro-dollar exchange rate and the S&P index indicates the currency pair ‘ has become a trade that is less about risk, a little more about euro rate specifics.’ ”</p> <p>In other words, the decline in risk aversion has not expanded to include the Euro. This is somewhat surprising, since EU economic indicators have rebounded in the last month. The oft-cited German IFO index “rebounded from a 26-year low,” while “retail sales declined the least in 11 months in April after government stimulus packages improved consumer confidence.” On the other hand, EU lending activity, which is more correlated with economic growth, continues to decline. “The European Central Bank Wednesday released figures showing that banks in the currency area cut their lending to both companies and households in March.”</p> <p>This is a huge problem for the EU, where the banking sector represents a comparatively important component of the economy.. “At the end of 2007, the stock of outstanding bank loans to the private sector amounted to around 145 percent of gross domestic product, compared to 63 percent in the United States.” This is belied by newspaper headlines that maintain the banking crisis is most severe in the US. In nominal terms, this might be true, but in relative terms, the EU is in much worse shape. Given that exchange rates are all relative, it is worth paying attention to this phenomenon.</p> <p>The ECB is doing all that it can to help the situation, but many analysts and even some of the Bank’s own members remain critical. “The ambiguity of the ECB’s stance is not helping [the Euro," offered one analyst. The ECB's next meeting is scheduled for May 7, when economists predict the benchmark lending rate will be lowered to 1%. This will appease some investors, but not all. The head of Germany's IFO organization, for instance, has urged the ECB to slash rates down to .25%.</p> <p>As ECB President Jean Claude Trichet has pointed out, lower rates will not automatically stimulate the economy: "Owing in particular to the very low rate on our deposit facility of 0.25 percent, this difference in policy rates doesn’t translate into equivalent differences in money market rates." In fact, money market rates have largely converged across the EU and US, despite the divergence in short-term rates, vindicating Trichet.</p> <p>More important, then is the ECB's non-monetary initiatives. To quote Trichet again, "Comparing only the levels of policy rates without consideration of the resulting market rates and other economic variables is looking at just one part of a far broader canvas." The Economist recently published an excellent comparison of the various Central Banks' responses to the credit crisis. While some have embraced their newfound prominence, other Central Banks have shied from the spotlight, insisting that their mandates are limited to inflation targeting. The ECB probably falls into this category, as it has thus far stood on the sidelines - for better or worse- as its counterparts have turned on the printing presses and flooded their respective credit markets with liquidity. [Chart courtesy of The Economist].<br /><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1618" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/central-bank-comparison.gif" alt="central-bank-comparison" width="531" height="280" /><br />This could soon change, and “A commission headed by Jacques de Larosière, a former head of both the Bank of France and the IMF, has recommended that the ECB chair a new European Systemic Risk Council made up of its member central banks and supervisors.” Not all investors are convinced that the ECB can successfully break with tradition. “Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Securities…recommends investors sell the euro on ‘upticks’ as the ECB abandons ‘monetary orthodoxy’ and uses unconventional measures to spur growth.”</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-45293805805385560042009-05-04T07:33:00.000-07:002009-05-04T07:35:16.940-07:00China’s Gold Holdings Surge 76% over Six Years<p>Based on the title, you’re probably groaning: ‘Wait, I thought this was supposed to be a forex blog?” Bear with me, however, as this subject is extremely pertinent to forex.</p> <p>Last week, it was revealed that China has been clandestinely adding to its gold reserves since 2003, to the extent that its holdings increased by 76%, to approximately 1,050 tons. The news initially sent a ripple through forex and commodities markets, which were overwhelmed by the figures involved. After analysts had a chance to gather some perspective, however, the markets relaxed. You see, although the increase seems tremendous in size, it is quite small in <em>relative</em> terms.</p> <p>It is <em>relatively</em> small compared to other countries: “This places China fifth in the world, ahead of Switzerland’s 1040 tons but behind the U.S. ranked first with 8,133 tons, followed by Germany (3,412 tons), France (2,508 tons) and Italy (2,451 tons).”</p> <p>It is <em>relatively</em> small given the six-year duration of accumulation: “I think as soon as people realized it’s not a year-on-year increase, or a quarter-on-quarter increase, people realized it should not have that big an impact.”</p> <p>It is small <em>relative</em> to China’s mammoth $2 Trillion forex reserves: “As a proportion of foreign exchange reserves, which have risen five-fold over the same period, gold now stands at a tiny 1.6 percent, versus 1.7 percent in 2003.”</p> <p>On some level, the development has at least some symbolic importance, as it demonstrates that it cannot be taken for granted that China will simply continue to plow its (dwindling) trade surplus into Dollar-denominated securities, or even currencies in general. This is underscored by the suspicious timing of the announcement; China essentially waited six years before revealing its buildup in gold, probably in order to coincide with the uproar surrounding the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency. In other words, even though China’s gold purchases in and of themselves don’t amount to much, the Central Bank of China is trying to send a message that it will defend itself against “the depreciation risk of some foreign currencies.”</p> <p>The announcement also explains the recent buoyancy of gold prices. Historically, there existed an inverse correlation between gold and the Dollar. This correlation has all but broken down as a result of the credit crisis, and for the first time a strong Dollar has been accompanied by high gold prices. Part of the reason may be increased buying activity by Central Banks, including the Bank of China: “The physical market remained well-bid by an unknown buyer despite bullion prices spiking to levels that normally cooled demand…Purchases were made in Shanghai, traders said, in an effort to absorb domestic production and lessen the impact of bullion prices on global markets.”</p> <p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1622" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/gold-prices.gif" alt="gold-prices" width="450" height="270" /></p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-40649883324013977882009-05-04T07:31:00.000-07:002009-05-04T07:33:47.302-07:00Forex Market BackgroundForex Market Background<br />Presented in cooperation with Forex-Training.com<br /><br />The global marketplace has changed dramatically over the past several years. New investment strategies are becoming more important in order to minimize risk, as well as to maintain high portfolio returns. Among the most rewarding of the markets opening up to traders is the Foreign Exchange market. Identifiable trading patterns, as well as comparatively low margin requirements, have rewarding trading opportunities for many. <br /><br />In contrast to the world’s stock markets, foreign exchange is traded without the constraints of a central physical exchange. Transactions are instead conducted via telephone or online. With this transaction structure as its foundation, the Foreign Exchange Market has become by far the largest marketplace in the world. Average volume in foreign exchange exceeds $1.5 trillion per day versus only $25 billion per day traded on the New York Stock Exchange. This high volume is advantageous from a trading standpoint because transactions can be executed quickly and with low transaction costs (i.e., a small bid/ask spread). <br /><br />As a result, foreign exchange trading has long been recognized as a superior investment opportunity by major banks, multinational corporations and other institutions. Today, this market is more widely available to the individual trader than ever before.<br /><br />Spot foreign exchange is always traded as one currency in relation to another. So a trader who believes that the dollar will rise in relation to the Euro, would sell EURUSD. That is, sell Euros and buy US dollars. Forex-Training.com has compiled the following guide for quoting conventions:<br /><table><tbody><tr><td><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Symbol</span></u></b></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></td> <td><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Currency Pair</span></u></b></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></td> <td><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Trading Terminology</span></u></b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">GBPUSD</span></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">British Pound / US Dollar</span></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Cable"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EURUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Euro / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Euro"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDJPY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Japanese Yen</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Dollar Yen"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDCHF</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Swiss Franc</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Dollar Swiss", or "Swissy"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDCAD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Canadian Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Dollar Canada"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">AUDUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Australian Dollar / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Aussie Dollar"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EURGBP</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Euro / British Pound</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Euro Sterling"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EURJPY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Euro / Japanese Yen</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Euro Yen"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EURCHF</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Euro / Swiss Franc</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Euro Swiss"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">GBPCHF</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">British Pound / Swiss Franc</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Sterling Swiss"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">GBPJPY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">British Pound / Japanese Yen</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Sterling Yen"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">CHFJPY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Swiss Yen"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">NZDUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"New Zealand Dollar" or "Kiwi"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDZAR</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / South African Rand</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Dollar Zar" or "South African Rand"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">GLDUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Spot Gold</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Gold"</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">SLVUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Spot Silver</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">"Silver"</span></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><b><i><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;"><br /> Spot Forex versus Currency Futures</span></i></b></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;color:#000000;">Many traders have made the switch from currency futures to spot foreign exchange ("forex") trading. Spot foreign exchange offers better liquidity and generally a lower cost of trading than currency futures. Banks and brokers in spot foreign exchange can quote markets 24 hours a day. Furthermore, the spot foreign exchange market is not burdened by exchange and NFA ("National Futures Association") fees, which are generally passed on to the customer in the form of higher commissions. For these reasons, virtually all professional traders and institutions conduct most of their foreign exchange dealing in the spot forex market, not in currency futures.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;color:#000000;">The mechanics of trading spot forex are similar to those of currency futures. The most important initial difference is the way in which currency pairs are quoted. Currency futures are always quoted as the currency versus the US dollar. In Spot forex, some currencies are quoted this way, while others are quoted as the US dollar versus the currency. For example, in spot forex, EURUSD is quoted the same way as Euro futures. In other words, if the Euro is strengthening, EURUSD will rise just as Euro futures will rise. On the other hand, USDCHF is quoted as US dollars with respect to Swiss Francs, the opposite of Swiss Franc futures. So if the Swiss Franc strengthens with respect to the US dollar, USDCHF will fall, while Swiss Franc futures will rise. The rule in spot forex is that the first currency shown is the currency that is being quoted in terms of direction. For example, "EUR" in EURUSD and "USD" in USDCHF is the currency that is being quoted.</span></p> <p><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;color:#000000;">The table below illustrates which spot currencies move parallel to the futures contract and which move inversely (opposite):</span></p> <table><tbody><tr> <td valign="bottom"><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Forex<br /> Symbol</span></u></b></td> <td valign="bottom"><span style="font-family:Arial;"> </span></td> <td valign="bottom"><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Currency Pair</span></u></b></td> <td valign="bottom"><br /></td> <td valign="bottom"><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Futures<br /> Symbol</span></u></b></td> <td valign="bottom"><b><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;"> </span></b></td> <td valign="bottom"><b><u><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Directional<br /> Relationship</span></u></b></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">GBPUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">British Pound / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">BP</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Parallel</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EURUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Euro / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">EU</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Parallel</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDJPY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Japanese Yen</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">JY</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Inverse</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDCHF</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Swiss Franc</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">SF</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Inverse</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">USDCAD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">US Dollar / Canadian Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">CD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Inverse</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">AUDUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Australian Dollar / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">AD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Parallel</span></td> </tr> <tr> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">NZDUSD</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td align="middle"><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">ND</span></td> <td><br /></td> <td><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:85%;">Paralle</span></td></tr></tbody></table>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-53314167336234918842009-04-21T10:42:00.001-07:002009-04-21T10:42:59.409-07:00Books about Advanced Forex Trading<p>Here you will find the Forex e-books that contain more advanced information than the average popular book about financial trading. In some cases, understanding these books is impossible without a lot of experience in Forex and sometimes the extended knowledge of mathematics.</p> <p> Almost all Forex e-books are in .pdf format. You'll need <a href="http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html">Adobe Acrobat Reader</a> to open these e-books. Some of the e-books (those that are in parts) are zipped.</p> <p> If you are the copyright owner of any of these e-books and don't want me to share them, please, <a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.earnforex.com/contact.php">contact me</a> and I will gladly remove them.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/a-new-interprtation-of-information-rate-kelly.pdf"><strong>A New Interpretation of Information Rate</strong></a> — by J. L. Kelly Jr.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/cci_manual.pdf"><strong>CCI Manual</strong></a> — by James L. O'Connell.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/Nicktrader_On_Divergences.zip"><strong>Nicktrader and Jeff Explaining Reverse and Regular Divers</strong></a> — from Woodies CCI Club Discussion From January 15,16 2004.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/nicktrader_on_no_price_trading.pdf"><strong>NickTrader on No Price CCI Divergence Trading</strong></a> — by Nicktrader.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/supply_demand.pdf"><strong>Are Supply and Demand Driving Stock Prices?</strong></a> — by Carl Hopman.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/The_Sharpe_Ratio.pdf"><strong>The Sharpe Ratio</strong></a> — by William F. Sharpe.</p> <p><a name="Interaction" href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/the_interaction_between_the_frequency_of_market_quotes_spread_and_volatility_in_Forex.pdf"><strong>The Interaction Between the Frequency of Market Quotes, Spread and Volatility in Forex</strong></a> — by Antonis A. Demos and Charles A. E. Goodhart, a scientific article from the Applied Economics.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/Trend_Determination.pdf"><strong>Trend Determination</strong></a> — by John Hayden, a quick, accurate and effective methodology for trend determination on the financial markets.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/Trend_vs_no_trend.pdf"><strong>Trend vs. No Trend</strong></a> — by Brian Dolan an article from TRADERS' Magazine July 2005 issue, which deals with the trend/no trend paradox encountered by many traders who think that "the trend is your friend".</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/A_Six-Part_Study_Guide_to_Market_Profile.pdf"><strong>A Six-Part Study Guide to Market Profile</strong></a> — by CBOT professionals — it describes the concept of the market profile in the smallest details.</p> <p><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/advanced_forex_trading/How_George_Soros_Knows_What_He_Knows.pdf"><strong>How George Soros Knows What He Knows</strong></a> — by Flavia Cymbalista — the study of George Soros' market reflexivity.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-31050435908450861102009-04-21T10:40:00.000-07:002009-04-21T10:41:17.782-07:00Forex Newsletter<p>Subscribe to the EarnForex newsletter to get the regular monthly updates on the Forex market and this site. With each newsletter issue you will get the monthly events summary of each Forex traded currency, analysis of the fundamental market situation, examples of my real trades for the month and the important site updates including new ebooks, brokers and expert advisors.</p> <p>Subscription to this newsletter is completely free and is very easy. Your private data is completely secure and won’t be sold or traded. The newsletter will be sent out only in text format. This will ensure that you will be always able to read it from anywhere. To subscribe, please, fill and submit the following form and then click on the confirmation link in the e-mail message, that you will receive in a few minutes.</p> <form method="post" action="http://www.earnforex.com/lists/?p=subscribe" name="subscribeform"> <input name="htmlemail" value="0" type="hidden"> <table border="0"> <tbody><tr><td width="270"><div class="required">E-mail:</div></td> <td class="attributeinput"><input name="email" value="" size="40" type="text"> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript">addFieldToCheck("email","Email");</script></td></tr> <tr><td width="270"><div class="required">Confirm your e-mail address:</div></td> <td class="attributeinput"><input name="emailconfirm" value="" size="40" type="text"> <script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript">addFieldToCheck("emailconfirm","");</script></td></tr><tr><td width="270"><div class="required">Name:</div></td><td class="attributeinput"> <input name="attribute1" class="attributeinput" size="40" value="" type="text"><script language="Javascript" type="text/javascript">addFieldToCheck("attribute1","Name");</script></td></tr> <tr><td width="270"><div class="required">Country:</div></td><td class="attributeinput"><!--0--><select name="attribute2" class="newsletter"><option value="1">Afghanistan</option><option value="2">Africa</option><option value="3">Albania</option><option value="4">Algeria</option><option value="5">American Samoa</option><option value="6">Andorra</option><option value="7">Angola</option><option value="8">Anguilla</option><option value="9">Antarctica</option><option value="10">Antigua & Barbuda</option><option value="11">Antilles</option><option value="12">Arabia, Saudi</option><option value="13">Argentina</option><option value="14">Armenia</option><option value="15">Aruba</option><option value="16">Australia</option><option value="17">Austria</option><option value="18">Azerbaijan</option><option value="19">Bahamas</option><option value="20">Bahrain</option><option value="21">Bangladesh</option><option value="22">Barbados</option><option value="23">Belarus</option><option value="24">Belgium</option><option value="25">Belize</option><option value="26">Benin</option><option value="27">Bermuda</option><option value="28">Bhutan</option><option value="29">Bolivia</option><option value="30">Bosnia and Herzegovina</option><option value="31">Botswana</option><option value="32">Bouvet Island</option><option value="33">Brazil</option><option value="34">British Indian Ocean Territory</option><option value="35">British Virgin Islands</option><option value="36">Brunei Darussalam</option><option value="37">Bulgaria</option><option value="38">Burkina Faso</option><option value="39">Burundi</option><option value="40">Cambodia</option><option value="41">Cameroon</option><option value="42">Canada</option><option value="43">Cape Verde</option><option value="44">Cayman Islands</option><option value="45">Central African Republic</option><option value="46">Chad</option><option value="47">Chile</option><option value="48">China</option><option value="49">Christmas Island</option><option value="50">Cocos Islands</option><option value="51">Colombia</option><option value="52">Comoros</option><option value="53">Congo</option><option value="54">Cook Islands</option><option value="55">Costa Rica</option><option value="56">Cote D'Ivoire</option><option value="57">Croatia</option><option value="58">Cuba</option><option value="59">Cyprus</option><option value="60">Czech Republic</option><option value="61">Denmark</option><option value="62">Djibouti</option><option value="63">Dominica</option><option value="64">Dominican Republic</option><option value="65">East Timor (Timor-Leste)</option><option value="66">Ecuador</option><option value="67">Egypt</option><option value="68">El Salvador</option><option value="69">Equatorial Guinea</option><option value="70">Eritrea</option><option value="71">Estonia</option><option value="72">Ethiopia</option><option value="73">European Union</option><option value="74">Falkland Islands (Malvinas)</option><option value="75">Faroe Islands</option><option value="76">Fiji</option><option value="77">Finland</option><option value="78">France</option><option value="79">French Guiana</option><option value="80">French Polynesia</option><option value="81">French Southern Territories - TF</option><option value="82">Gabon</option><option value="83">Gambia</option><option value="84">Georgia</option><option value="85">Germany</option><option value="86">Ghana</option><option value="87">Gibraltar</option><option value="88">Greece</option><option value="89">Greenland</option><option value="90">Grenada</option><option value="91">Guadeloupe</option><option value="92">Guam</option><option value="93">Guatemala</option><option value="94">Guernsey and Alderney</option><option value="95">Guinea</option><option value="96">Guinea-Bissau</option><option value="97">Guyana</option><option value="98">Haiti</option><option value="99">Heard and McDonald Islands</option><option value="100">Honduras</option><option value="101">Hong Kong</option><option value="102">Hungary</option><option value="103">Iceland</option><option value="104">India</option><option value="105">Indonesia</option><option value="106">Iran</option><option value="107">Iraq</option><option value="108">Ireland</option><option value="109">Israel</option><option value="110">Italy</option><option value="111">Jamaica</option><option value="112">Japan</option><option value="113">Jersey</option><option value="114">Jordan</option><option value="115">Kazakhstan</option><option value="116">Kenya</option><option value="117">Kiribati</option><option value="118">Korea</option><option value="119">Kuwait</option><option value="120">Kyrgyzstan</option><option value="121">Lao People's Democratic Republic</option><option value="122">Latvia</option><option value="123">Lebanon</option><option value="124">Lesotho</option><option value="125">Liberia</option><option value="126">Libya</option><option value="127">Liechtenstein</option><option value="128">Lithuania</option><option value="129">Luxembourg</option><option value="130">Macao</option><option value="131">Macedonia</option><option value="132">Madagascar</option><option value="133">Malawi</option><option value="134">Malaysia</option><option value="135">Maldives</option><option value="136">Mali</option><option value="137">Malta</option><option value="138">Man</option><option value="139">Marshall Islands</option><option value="140">Martinique</option><option value="141">Mauritania</option><option value="142">Mauritius</option><option value="143">Mayotte</option><option value="144">Mexico</option><option value="145">Micronesia</option><option value="146">Moldova</option><option value="147">Monaco</option><option value="148">Mongolia</option><option value="149">Montenegro</option><option value="150">Montserrat</option><option value="151">Morocco</option><option value="152">Mozambique</option><option value="153">Myanmar</option><option value="154">Namibia</option><option value="155">Nauru</option><option value="156">Nepal</option><option value="157">Netherlands</option><option value="158">New Caledonia</option><option value="159">New Zealand</option><option value="160">Nicaragua</option><option value="161">Niger</option><option value="162">Nigeria</option><option value="163">Niue</option><option value="164">Norfolk Island</option><option value="165">Northern Mariana Islands</option><option value="166">Norway</option><option value="167">Oman</option><option value="168">Pakistan</option><option value="169">Palau</option><option value="170">Palestine</option><option value="171">Panama</option><option value="172">Papua New Guinea</option><option value="173">Paraguay</option><option value="174">Peru</option><option value="175">Philippines</option><option value="176">Pitcairn Island</option><option value="177">Poland</option><option value="178">Portugal</option><option value="179">Puerto Rico</option><option value="180">Qatar</option><option value="181">Reunion</option><option value="182">Romania</option><option value="183">Russia</option><option value="184">Rwanda</option><option value="185">Sahara</option><option value="186">Saint Helena</option><option value="187">Saint Kitts and Nevis</option><option value="188">Saint Lucia</option><option value="189">Saint Pierre and Miquelon</option><option value="190">Saint Vincent and the Grenadines</option><option value="191">Samoa</option><option value="192">San Marino</option><option value="193">Sao Tome and Principe</option><option value="194">Saudi Arabia</option><option value="195">Senegal</option><option value="196">Serbia</option><option value="197">Seychelles</option><option value="198">Sierra Leone</option><option value="199">Singapore</option><option value="200">Slovakia</option><option value="201">Slovenia</option><option value="202">Solomon Islands</option><option value="203">Somalia</option><option value="204">South Africa</option><option value="205">S. Georgia and S. Sandwich Is.</option><option value="206">Spain</option><option value="207">Sri Lanka</option><option value="208">Sudan</option><option value="209">Suriname</option><option value="210">Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands</option><option value="211">Swaziland</option><option value="212">Sweden</option><option value="213">Switzerland</option><option value="214">Syrian Arab Republic</option><option value="215">Taiwan</option><option value="216">Tajikistan</option><option value="217">Tanzania</option><option value="218">Thailand</option><option value="219">Togo</option><option value="220">Tokelau</option><option value="221">Tonga</option><option value="222">Trinidad & Tobago</option><option value="223">Tunisia</option><option value="224">Turkey</option><option value="225">Turkmenistan</option><option value="226">Turks and Caicos Islands</option><option value="227">Tuvalu</option><option value="228">Uganda</option><option value="229">Ukraine</option><option value="230">United Arab Emirates</option><option value="231">United Kingdom</option><option value="232">United States</option><option value="233">US Minor Outlying Islands</option><option value="234">Uruguay</option><option value="235">Uzbekistan</option><option value="236">Vanuatu</option><option value="237">Vatican City State</option><option value="238">Venezuela</option><option value="239">Viet Nam</option><option value="240">Wallis and Futuna</option><option value="241">Western Sahara</option><option value="242">Yemen</option><option value="243">Zambia</option><option value="244">Zimbabwe</option></select></td></tr> <tr><td width="270"><br /></td> <td> <input name="list[2]" value="signup" type="hidden"><input name="listname[2]" value="Monthly EarnForex Newsletter" type="hidden"><div style="display: none;"><input name="VerificationCodeX" value="" size="20" type="text"></div> <input class="newsletter" name="subscribe" value="Subscribe to EarnForex Newsletter" onclick="return checkform();" type="submit"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> </form> <p>You will be able to <a href="http://www.earnforex.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe">unsubscribe</a> from this Forex newsletter at any time. I respect your privacy and you won’t be disturbed after the <a href="http://www.earnforex.com/lists/?p=unsubscribe">unsubscription</a>.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-53461786209636448472009-04-21T10:24:00.000-07:002009-04-21T10:40:30.425-07:00The Truth about Money Management<p>The new e-book (actually an article excerpt from the <a href="http://www.futuresmag.com/">Futures Magazine</a>) was uploaded to my site today. It’s about the risk control and money management in Forex and elsewhere. The whole book is only 4 pages long, but it succeeds in introducing the most important approaches to money management theory and practice. For those who are too lazy to read these 4 pages, in the end the author of this book gives 5 steps (or rules) that should be followed for the successful risk managing of the general financial trading. Download link:</p> <ul><li><a href="http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/money_management/The_Truth_About_Money_Management.pdf">The Truth About Money Management by Murray A. Ruggiero Jr.</a></li></ul>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-73295212547585630162009-04-11T07:13:00.000-07:002009-04-11T07:14:50.969-07:00Yen Continues to Drop Despite Government Stimulus Plan<p>The Yen continues its decline against the Dollar and Euro, dipping well below 100 Yen/Dollar en route to a six-month low. Most analysts attribute this trend to a pickup in risk aversion: “Some kind of optimism is returning to the market and that’s putting pressure on the yen,” explained one analyst succinctly.</p> <p>An ongoing rally in stocks and commodities is reinforcing investor attitudes that the economic recession is under control, and is stimulating risk-taking. In other words, the same forces that contributed to the unwinding of the carry trade during the beginning of the credit crisis, are now working in reverse and causing investors to flee from the Yen en masse. “As long as stocks can retain their buoyancy… risk appetite and risk-based trades will be in vogue and investors will continue to add to and rebuild yen short positions.”</p> <p>According to the most recent International Monetary Market report, “Short positions on the currency have been building up for three consecutive weeks, and are now at levels last seen in the late summer of 2008,” which means the Yen’s slide has basically become self-fulfilling. From a technical standpoint, “A move above 101.00 yen was technically significant as it was a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its decline from a peak in 2007 to its 13-year low in January.” Even domestic Japanese investors have signaled their bearishness by taking advantage of last week’s Yen upswing by making “aggressive purchases of foreign bonds.”</p> <p>From a fundamental standpoint, the decline in the Yen makes sense, given the abysmal economic situation in Japan. In fact, the “Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s March meeting showed members of the central bank were leaning toward cutting the bank’s economic forecast in April, and that they believed the BOJ would need to continue to provide substantial liquidity to financial markets that they see as still under substantial stress.”</p> <p>The government is finally responding to the economic crisis, having most recently unveiled a $150 Billion plan, to supplement the $100 Billion initiative announced earlier this year. “If implemented competently, these steps could stabilize the domestic economy and stop the bleeding in labor markets.” At the same time, the intertwined tailspin in confidence and spending suggest that the government’s efforts could be in vain.</p> <p>While equity investors have reacted positively - pushing the stock market into positive territory for the year- bond and currency traders are understandably concerned. Yields on Japanese bonds are already rising in anticipation of $100 Billion in bonds that the government will have to issue in 2009 alone. Naturally, the burden to purchase these bonds will fall on the Bank of Japan, which will be forced to print money and contribute to the further devaluation of the Yen in the process.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1540" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/japan-government-debt-issuance.jpg" alt="japan-government-debt-issuance" width="520" height="338" /></p> <p>Ultimately, the duration of the Yen’s slide depends on the duration of the global stock market rally. If you believe that the global economy has turned a corner, then the Yen is done. If, on the other hand, you are inclined to side with George Soros, who opined recently that “It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” then there is still cause for Yen bullishness.</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-56311329418548988082009-04-11T07:12:00.000-07:002009-04-11T07:13:41.284-07:00Risk Aversion Returns to Forex as Hope from G20 Fades<p>The period leading up to the G20 meeting was generally marked by optimism and hopefulness. One commentator urged his readers: “Don’t write off the London G20 meeting. It could lay the foundations for fundamental global change, impacting currencies, gold and bond markets.”</p> <p>On some level, the meeting probably did fulfill expectations. After only a few hours of discussions, the G20 agreed to “stricter limits on hedge funds, executive pay, credit-rating companies and risk-taking by banks. The summit also committed more than $US1 trillion to boost the resources of the International Monetary Fund and provide emergency cash to help distressed countries.”</p> <p>Investors rejoiced and the markets rallied, with the Dow rising above 8000 points and capping “the best four-week rally since the week ending May 12, 1933.” Bulls can now retort that the stock market bust of 1929 took four years to recover, while the recession of 2008-2009 required less than one year. Forex markets also reacted “positively” to the G20 summit, lifting the Dollar above the important psychological barrier of 100 Yen/USD, and causing emerging market currencies to rise across the board.</p> <p>Monday, however marked a return to business as usual: “Post-G20 euphoria, which had helped to boost market confidence about a global recovery, proved short-lived as investors once again focused on the continued risks to the banking system.” It was probably only a matter of time before investors drilled beneath the surface of the impressive-sounding G20 rhetoric and large numbers, into the nuts and bolts of the summit’s policy prescriptions. [The chart below comes courtesy of the New York Times].<br /><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1533" src="http://www.forexblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/results-of-the-g-20-summit-meeting.jpg" alt="results-of-the-g-20-summit-meeting" width="482" height="661" /><br />The headline-grabbing $1.1 Trillion figure, for example, is somewhat misleading. Over half of the $500 Billion “pledged” to the International Monetary Fund has either not been raised or not been explicitly authorized. Then, there is $350 Billion in trade credit, most of which is either redundant or double-counted, since “trade financing is rolled over every six months as exporters get paid for their goods and repay the agencies that lent them the money.” The remaining $250 Billion is accounted for in the issuance of IMF synthetic currency to member nations. However, given that the synthetic currency derives a significant portion of its value from the Dollar and Euro, this program cannot be effective if the US and EU opt out, of which there is a real possibility.</p> <p>The summit also failed to meaningfully address concerns of the continued ole of the USD as the world’s de facto reserve currency. The expansion of the IMF synthetic currency program represents an important starting point, but at this point, it looks like China and the other supporters of an alternative system will have to wait for the next G20 meeting, to be held in September.</p> <p>One commentator captured this frustration quite well: “The G20 Plan…tries very hard to preserve and perpetuate the existing US helmed global financial and economic order. An act of commission, on the one hand— buttressing the IMF— and an act of omission, on the other— remaining silent on the position of the US dollar— bear testimony to this.”</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5784983998438304580.post-82660483940036860262009-04-11T07:11:00.000-07:002009-04-11T07:12:48.632-07:00IMF Currency Could Threaten Dollar’s Reserve Status<p>Last week, SDR became the latest addition to the growing list of forex acronyms. So-called Special Drawing Rights are a unit of account used by the IMF, “defined as the value of a fixed amount of yen, dollars, pounds and euros, expressed in dollars at the current exchange rate. The composition of the basket is altered every five years to reflect changes in the importance of different currencies in the world’s trading system.”</p> <p>The sudden rise to popularity of SDRs (in spite of their 40 year history) can be attributed both to developing countries’ growing unease about the status of the Dollar, as well as to their perceived usefulness as a tool in fending off economic depression. Ignoring the latter- for the purpose of this post- let’s look, at how SDRs will impact the role of the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.</p> <p>First of all, as I noted in Tuesday’s post, the success/scope of the SDR program depends on the positions of the US and EU, the largest and most important members. In the case of the US, the most recent SDR expansion (1997) was never implemented because the US blocked it. Neither can the support of the EU be taken for granted. According to one member of the European Central Bank, “There was no examination of whether there is a global need for additional liquidity at all… One used to take a lot of time to examine something like this.”</p> <p>In addition, it’s not clear what benefits the synthetic currency would yield. Asks one commentator: “What is one to tie it to?…in a world of depleting resources it is difficult to fathom how to create a list of constituents which would not constrain global growth and tie us into many years of deflation.” In other words, given that the SDRs will derive their value from underlying currencies, it doesn’t seem like the end result would be anymore stable than the current system.</p> <p>China, meanwhile, has showed fervent support for the expansion in the form of a $40 Billion pledge, which is not surprising since a report issued by the head of its Central Bank provided some of the impetus. This $40 Billion is tantamount to an exchange of Dollars for a basket of currencies. The benefit to China is articulated by one analyst as follows: “ ‘We could see the IMF being put in a position where it could raise in the capital markets funds in SDR-denominated debt….The debt could be used ‘by China and other central banks to be put into their currency reserves, at the expense of the U.S. dollar.’ “</p>azzaxphttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09430691527664979885noreply@blogger.com0